Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Joint NAEDEX-23 and APSDEU-11 Meetings Boulder, USA. 02-06 May 2011 Gilles Verner (Josée Morneau) Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre Meteorological Service of Canada Mike Manore Director, Monitoring Strategies and Network Design Meteorological Service of Canada APSDEU-9

Outline Current Operational Status: Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities IT Infrastructure (Computers and Telecoms) Operational NWP system at CMC, data usage Canadian observations; migration to TDCF and some data issues Recent NWP Changes and Future Developments: Oct. 2010: Regional LAM 3D-Var March/April 2011: Canadian Pcp Anal. (CaPA) + CIS 3D-Var Ice Anal. June: Major Global improvement: (mods. to physics and more obs., SST) June: Major EPS improvement: EnKF and model resolution, SST July: Regional EPS Next: Regional LAM 4D-Var Next: Update to Sat. Obs (RARS, GPSRO, AVHRR Winds) Future : data usage, assimilation and models APSDEU-9

Space-Based Monitoring activities Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore understanding satellite data requirements Environment Canada wide meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,…. ensuring data access & exchange coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat… all appropriate missions and sensors operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’ EC leadership for operational meteorological missions operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT – Bradley ownership for national SAR wind system future missions influence future missions to meet EC requirements Canada (CSA), International E.G. CSA PCW mission Chinook mission – no longer in the plan Mike Manore est lead Space Based Monitoring Les stations de réception (GOES, HRPT) appartiennent au Space Based Monitoring et sont gérées comme un réseau national. Space Based est responsable (budget du remplacement). Avant chaque région s’occupait de ses affaires. Arne est maintenant le « life cycle manager » pour Goes. Il n’y a toujours pas de « life cycle manager » pour HRPT. EARS est tombé sous le chapeau Space Based. Mike a délégué le dossier EARS à Gilles V. APSDEU-9

MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities EARS - Eumetsat Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms (T1) completed in 2010 Resolute GOES Gander HRPT EARS Edmonton (2) Vancouver UK MetO Dartmouth Capital O&M Winnipeg CMC (3) Ottawa Three HRPT sites are METOP ready (received in Gander). X-band capability in Edmonton (1 site). Toronto NOAA APSDEU-9

Example of N-18 image from Resolute Bay available in Dorval 12 minutes after end of scan

IT - Computers and Telecoms Current IBM status : OPS: 121 compute nodes; R&D: 121 compute nodes Total of 4512 P5+ processors New 2.5 year contract signed with IBM - upgrade in Sept. 2011. Plan is twin clusters, total 16384 P7 cores (~10x current capacity) OFF-SITE turnkey system FE’s: all Linux based, new clusters soon (used for pre- and post-processing); major project in 2010 Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UK MetO (meteosat + GTS back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS), internet to NESDIS/NCEP Recent discussions for link to NOAA (TOC-NCEP-NESDIS), at 45 mbps capacity. Target is Fall 2011. Recent discussions with UK MetO – RMDCN connection EumetCast also under consideration

CMC-MRD unified multi-scale model : GEM GEM = Global Environmental Model APSDEU-9

Immediate & Short-Range Weather Short-Range Air quality GDPS RDPS HRDPS AQ-RDPS Forecast Objectives Medium-Range Weather Short-Range Weather Immediate & Short-Range Weather Short-Range Air quality (O3 & PM2.5) Model & Domain(s) GEM global GEM-LAM Regional : N. Am. & adj. waters 4 domains: West, East, Maritimes, Arctic GEM-MACH Canada (Sub domain of RDPS) Horizontal grid 33km 800x600 15km 649x672 (glb pilot : 55 km) 2.5 km ~600x470 15 km 348x465 Vertical levels / Lid L80 0,1 hPa L58 10hPa Lead Time (Initial time) 240h (00z & 12z) 48h/54h (00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z) 24h (West & East, 12z Marit. & Arc., 06z) 48h Analysis or initial conditions 4D-Var T108 Inner Loops : G240x120L80 3D-Var(FGAT) T200 Inner Loops : G400x200L80 Downscaling from 00z RDPS boundary conditions: RDPS fcst

Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS GEPS Summer 2011 REPS Forecast Objectives Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS Short Range Weather Model & Domain GEM Ensemble Global (20 members) global GEM-LAM Ensemble Regional Horizontal grid 0.9ox0.9o (100km) 400x200 0.6ox0.6o (66km) 600x300 0.3ox0.3o (33km) 280x287 Nested with GEPS Vertical levels & Lid height L28 10hPa L40 2hPa ~10hPa Lid nested with GEPS Lead Time (Initial time) 384h (00z & 12z) 72h Analysis EnKF 96 members 400x200L58 192 members Downscaling from GEPS

Monthly & Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts? Emergency Response Wave forecasting Monthly & Seasonal forecasts Seasonal forecasts? Forecast Objectives Short, Medium & Long Range Simulations and Hindcast Short-medium wave and swell (height & period and swell directions Long -Range Weather (Deterministic, probabilistic) Model & Domain(s) MLDP0 & MLDP1 (Atm. Transport & Dispersion Mdl) WAM Pacific, Atlantic and Cnd Great Lakes & Arctic 4 mdls: GEM-clim,MCGA2,MCGA3 & SEF global Horizontal grid 10-100km (MLDP0) 0,1-33km (MLDP1) ~0,05ox0,05o (lakes) ~0,5ox0.5o (other domains) 200-625km Forecast Hour (Initial time) 10-30 days (MLDP0) 12h (MLDP1) 48h regional 120h global 1 month (1st & 15th of the month) 3 months (1st of the month) months 3, 6 & 9 Initial/ Boundary conditions 3D fields from RDPS or GDPS 10m winds from RDPS or GDPS GDPS?

OPS REG-LAM 3D-Var System Blue shows the uniform resolution section of previous variable resolution GEM Red shows the grid of the operational REG-LAM3D (15-km, 649x672) with 3D-Var assimilation (100 km) on the LAM domain Boundary conditions are obtained from a uniform resolution (55 km) global GEM initialized by a 3D-Var analysis (T108, ~185 km) valid at the same time as the LAM analysis APSDEU-9 11

Current Hi-Res (2.5 km) LAM windows APSDEU-9 12

North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS): Joint project involving MSC, NWS and the NMSM

Various configurations of Reg. EPS Vancouver 2010 Beijing 2008 OPS-REPS Haïti 2010/11

Observations assimilated at CMC Type Variables Thinning Radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs) T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1o x 1o x 50 hPa per time step ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18-19, AQUA, METOP Ocean Land AMSU-A 4-14 6-14 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 11-13 IM3 (6.7 m) 2o x 2o 3-hourly AIRS 87 IR channels 250kmx250km/time step ASCAT U,V at 10 meter over ocean 100kmx100km/time step SSM/I NIL 7 MW channels 200kmx200km/time step AMV’s (METEOSAT E-W, GOES E-W, MTSAT-1R) U,V (IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels) 1.5o x 1.5o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra, Global & DB) U,V ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step Profiler (NOAA Network) U,V (750 m) Vertical hourly GPSRO (COSMIC, GRACE, GRAS) Refractivity 830 m, per time step U,V APSDEU-9

Canadian observations - MTDCF Two major areas of development underway for MTDCF (leads are Tony Colavecchia and Yves Pelletier) Radiosonde data: Using Vaisala software at each site to generate both alphanumeric and BUFR bulletins (template with 4D trajectory). BUFR data from 2 sites received and validated at CMC. Awaiting telecoms upgrade for full network deployment Surface data: Will have centralized processing (DMF initiative) using raw data formats from stations to encode in BUFR using template 3 07 080 plus a national template extension. Data from SYNOP, METAR and SA will be in BUFR. Test data to be available at CMC during Summer 2011. Will need a transition period when data in both BUFR and alpha. codes would be available. Some data processing adaptation to do (both NWP and forecast applications) and need to have some data to do so! Have started to process international data fro NWP and DMF. APSDEU-9

Canadian observations Canadian radiosonde data – still alternating between Loran sondes (no wind) and GPS sondes, roughly ½ network each. To be completed by end of Summer. Issue related to large stock of Loran sondes. Additional cost to operate 100% GPS is $1M. Canadian radar data - available at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) is operational, full volume scans available. Available to NOAA on CMC datamart but not yet in BUFR. No QPE product yet. Issue of data exchange format. Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by University and private company, data now available to CMC from 8 sites and should be inserted on GTS once validated, in BUFR code (OPERA software): headers to be communicated as soon as available. Another 2 sites in 2011, but significant issues with operating funds. Data quality issues have been identified and is slowing down progress. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR as part of MTDCF. Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…data now in BUFR. Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. Alphanumeric format could be made available. Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone. APSDEU-9

Canadian observations “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail: data problems as reported by MetOffice and NOAA : surface elevations are not available or wrong. Data should be inserted by each individual country and not by CMC. SAR-Winds: Demonstration application generates marine sfc winds from SAR and ASAR imagery (Radarsat and Envisat). Fairly high resolution over small areas, wind direction information obtained from NWP model (LAM or REG) or from cross-polarization if available. One-year transition before full operational transition. Canadian AMDAR – very little change to operations: AC Jazz: data from 25 CRJ on GTS, all on GTS. Data received from 4 DHC-8 only, but retained due to ongoing problems with data quality of DHC-8. Also obtaining data from 2 NavCanada CRJ’s, data quality is good and transmitted on GTS. Often in remote areas and low levels. No progress with other airlines. MSC-ADAS system and software is used for data reception and processing, in-house Linux based system. Fully redundant. Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data. APSDEU-9

Canadian AMDAR coverage APSDEU-9

Ontario-Québec Wind Profiler Network (OQ Net) These are the proposed wind profilers for Ontario and Quebec. We are presently receiving 6 of them (circled in red) and Eureka. The remaining three dotted red ones should be installed this year plus another near Kapuskasing. Courtesy of Wayne Hocking (University of Western Ontario) APSDEU-9

Scatter plots (OQnet) – March 2011 Bias = 0.43 STD = 3.69 Bias = 0.38 STD = 2.48 Bias = -0.46 STD = 3.46 8000 m 10000 m Bias = 0.21 STD = 3.98 Bias = -0.24 STD = 5.11

Scatter plots (NOAA) – March 2011 Wolcott, Blueriver, Woodlake, Winchester, Slater, Neligh Bias = -0.16 STD = 2.19 Bias = 0.11 STD = 1.91 Bias = 0.02 STD = 2.05 7750 m 10000 m Bias = -0.75 STD = 2.51 Bias = -0.36 STD = 2.75

Eaxple of SAR Wind - Barrier Jet - 17 Feb 2007 APSDEU-9

Availability of aircraft data : status ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS Large increase in amount of ADS data in North Atlantic! Alaska Airlines has joined the MDCRS in the USA

Availability of aircraft data : status ADS: UANT01 CWAO – also UANT99 KDDL

Other data issues SSM/I F15 – Still received and used for operational ice analysis Future plans for Scatterometer? Availability of OceanSat? Access to SMOS data ? Data volume (10 GB/day is problematic for NRT NWP (CaLDAS). Need a lower volume NRT product. Would like to access direct broadcast FY-3a. Agreement signed with CMA, but still need technical information to adapt AHRPT receivers and processing software (any info. would be useful). Interested in accessing Global sounder data if available? Collection of global ADS-Met data. Recent increase over North Atlantic appears mostly uncoordinated? What about expansion of ADS in other areas? GeoNetcast system for Americas – with similar content as Eumetcast Ku band? Access to other GPS-RO instruments if possible. Issue with change in COSMIC GPS-RO in Oct 2009

Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009 Change in Oct. 2009 Change in Oct. 2009

Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009 Starting October 12, 2009 00:00UTC, the CDAAC near real-time data products will include the changes explained in COSMIC status updates from April 16, 2009 and May 12, 2009.b MetO not affected – not using Ps correction in adjoint

Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting (much delays due to Linux migration in 2010) October 2010 – Regional LAM 3D-Var Continental scale limited area version of GEM, same resolution Hourly piloting (BC’s) from 55-km global system, run at same time as LAM, with its own 3DVar analysis Using same data as previous system Paper of Fillion et al, Weather & Forecasting, 2010. Data assimilation support for higher resolution LAMs 4D-Var version now ready (April 2011) March 2011 – CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis) Optimum interpolation, 6h and 24h accumulations, NOAM domain First guess from Reg-15 km SYNOP, METAR, SHEF, SA, RMCQ (COOP sites) data Requires extensive QC, particularly in Winter Analysis must include confidence index for use Radar QPE not yet included APSDEU-9

Spin-up of REG-LAM 3D-Var APSDEU-9

CaPA 6h, 2011-03-11 00-06Z ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE

Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting March 2011 – CIS 3D-Var NOAM Ice Analysis Explosion in availability of SAR data in next 5 years, and rapid evolution in quantity of ice products to generate Need to automate some labour intensive tasks at CIS Goal is to produce automated analyses of sea-ice conditions for operational needs of MSC: enhanced ability of CIS to deliver operational sea-ice products over larger area than currently possible improved NWP by supplying better sea-ice analyses for initializing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the Arctic. Using NWP-like data assimilation set-up, 5-km NOAM grid SSM/IS and AMSR-E using Nasa-Team-2 algorithm CIS RadarSat image analysis and daily ice chart (manual analyses) CIS lake analysis (manual analysis) First automated product at CIS to be Davis Strait Ice Edge Global configuration (10-km) in preparation for operational NWP at CMC Future: Assimilation of scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR/ASAR and ice thickness satellite-based observations Future: Coupling to regional and global ice-ocean-atmosphere models APSDEU-9

Assimilated data: Typical data coverage SSM/I ice concentration AMSR-E ice concentration CIS daily ice charts CIS image analyses

Next version of global system – June 2011 Change to physics to reduce false alarms in tropical cyclones (more stable tropical BL) New SST global analysis Improved dynamical bias correction for radiances (same code for all) SSM/IS (7 SSMI-like channels), F16 only IASI (62 channels, initially planned for 150), no WV WV AIRS channels initially included were rejected CSR (Geo-rad) data with RTTOV – 5 GEO (includes MTSAT) Reduced thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km to 150 km, roughly 3x more radiance data) Moisture data from AMDAR FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV Increased resolution of inner loops to T180 rejected (due to timings) Accepted for operational implementation; subjective evaluation very positive, including tropical cyclone forecasts. Small anal. differences over Pacific leading to often better medium range forecasts NOAM Total data count increasing from 1.9M/day to 4.1M/day All changes also included in Regional system

Verification against raobs – day 6 OPS PAR Northern Hemis. O-F 144hr Southern Hemis. O-F 144hr

Verification: anomaly correlation OPS PAR Northern Hemis. GZ 500 hPa Tropics GZ 500hPa Southern Hemis. GZ 500hPa RMS

Next version of global EPS – June 2011 GEM with staggered vertical coordinate New SST global analysis (same as global) EPS at higher horizontal resolution (600x300, ~66 km) L40, top at 2 hPa Revised stochastic parameterizations EnKF using 192 members Each member at same resolution as before (400x200, ~100 km) with L58 and top at 2 hpa Incorporates AMSUA channels 11 and 12 Still using old thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km) FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV as in GDPS Bias correction and QC from GDPS Still under evaluation in parallel run but approval for operational implementation expected soon; subjective and objective evaluation very positive, much improved verifications.

NWP changes in next few months (but IBM migration to take care of…) Regional Ensemble Prediction System (accepted) 20 members, GEM-LAM grid, 33-km L28 72-hr fcst, initial condition from GEPS-EnKF Boundary conditions from 20-GEPS members Reg-LAM 4D-Var (ready for proposal) Same grid as Reg-LAM 3D-Var Same obs. as new global system (80% more obs than 3DVar) TLM/AD piloting from global trial fields Upgrade to 10-km planned for early 2012 Update to observations GPSRO update (TerraSARX, SAC-C) RARS AMSUA/B/MHS (EARS/AP-RARS/SA-RARS) AVHRR Polar Winds Satellite changes (GOES, MTSAT : CSR &AMV`s, SSMIS) Additional AIRS & IASI channels ? RTTOV-10 ?

Verifications against G2 4D-Var Analyses 48-h DIFF RMSE (m) GZ-500 hPa Winter-2009 Blue: 4D-Var is better

Winter 2009 48h Forecast GZ-500 hPa SUMMER-2008 12h Forecast REG-3D REG-4D Winter 2009 48h Forecast GZ-500 hPa SUMMER-2008 12h Forecast UV-500 hPa

Longer term NWP changes and data Global 20-25 km and vertical staggering, T180 inner loops, 100-km thinning Increase resolution in GEPS/EnKF, use of GEPS for monthly forecasting Windsat ; NPP (ATMS,CrIS) ; Metop- 2 ; OceanSAT (scat)? GPS-ZWD (Reg-4dvar) ; Radiosonde data in BUFR (4D profiles), similar processing as for AMDAR CaLDAS (SMOS data, eventually SMAP, soil TT profiles) Begin development of Regional-EnKF for REPS Data assimilation for sea ice (3D-Var global and lam): SSMIS, AMSR, SAR Other satellite observations as they become available (ADM-Aeolus, GPM, Sentinel, etc) Assimilation of cloudy radiances EC involvement in PCW if mission is approved (ground segment, data processing and products), assimilation Assimilation of chemical constituents in GEM-MACH (R. Ménard) Ocean modelling and assimilation (with Mercator) Major project underway to unify the EC assimilation systems to meet requirements of both EPS and Deterministic systems Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice NWP/Assimilation system

Monitoring Web sites http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/CAMDAR http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/SAR User: monitoring PW: CMC http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html For description of nwp fields

www.ec.gc.ca