Template WRF Evaluation Against Observations in Louisiana Chris Emery ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato CA November 14, 2012

Sites in the Evaluation 2

Wind Speed at Northern Sites 3

Wind Speed at Southern Sites 4

Goal Plots for Windspeed 5

Wind Direction at Northern Sites 6

Wind Direction at Southern Sites 7

Goal Plots for Wind Direction/Speed 8

Temperature at Northern Sites 9

Temperature at Southern Sites 10

Goal Plots for Temperature 11

24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days 12

24-hour Precipitation on Exceedance Days 13

Summary Southern LA –September: performance was very good for all three variables –October: daytime wind speed and temperatures were slightly under predicted  Could lead to excessive stagnation and higher ozone Northern LA –Performance was slightly but consistently worse –Daytime wind speeds and temperatures were also under estimated Overall –Wind were markedly better than usually achieved in other WRF applications across the country –Temperature performance was on par with other applications –Precipitation performance was quite good  Did not exhibit the usually high degree of over prediction 14

Extra Slides 15

Regression Analysis for Windspeed 16

Regression Analysis for Wind Direction 17

Regression Analysis for Temperature 18