POPULATION EXPLOSION AND FRESHWATER CRISES Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter. Nov 21 st & 22 nd, 2011.

Critical Areas Population Growth Population Growth Fresh Water Supplies. Fresh Water Supplies. Food production. Food production.

Part 1: Population a. Currently the world’s population is 6.7 billion. b. Rate of growth is roughly 75 million per year. c. On oct,21 (2011) it reached to 7 billion mark. d. At this rate it is expected to reach 9.5 billion by Fig 1: Shows global population growth curve.

Distribution China and India have a population greater than 1 billion, together possessing more than a third of the world’s population! China and India have a population greater than 1 billion, together possessing more than a third of the world’s population! Fig 2: Shows Distribution of population.

In the last 60 years 2 billion people moved to cities. In the last 60 years 2 billion people moved to cities. The World’s population has tripled over the last 60 years. The World’s population has tripled over the last 60 years. In Shanghai, 3000 sky-scrapers came up in the last 20 years and 100 more are under construction. In Shanghai, 3000 sky-scrapers came up in the last 20 years and 100 more are under construction. Today, 50% of people live in cities. Today, 50% of people live in cities. Urban Explosion

Fig 3: Shows population increase in Pakistan. Population Growth in Pakistan

Part 2: Freshwater Crisis Only 3% of the world’s water is fresh; all the rest is salty. Only 3% of the world’s water is fresh; all the rest is salty. One Million Acre Foot is the volume of water that covers one million acres of land to a depth of 1 foot. One Million Acre Foot is the volume of water that covers one million acres of land to a depth of 1 foot. Each person needs about 1 Million Acre Foot of water each year. Each person needs about 1 Million Acre Foot of water each year. This is equivalent to about 8,000 barrels or 1,000 cubic meters of water! This is equivalent to about 8,000 barrels or 1,000 cubic meters of water!

Fresh Water Sources Only 0.5% of fresh water is available. Only 0.5% of fresh water is available. The majority is in aquifers, natural lakes and in the form of rainfall. The majority is in aquifers, natural lakes and in the form of rainfall.

110,000 cubic kilometers of precipitation falls onto the earth’s land surface every year. 110,000 cubic kilometers of precipitation falls onto the earth’s land surface every year. This is 10 times the volume of Lake Superior. This is 10 times the volume of Lake Superior. Enough to easily fulfill requirements of everyone. Enough to easily fulfill requirements of everyone. But much of it cannot be captured! But much of it cannot be captured! More than half evaporates More than half evaporates A third ends up in oceans A third ends up in oceans Only 1.5% is used by people! Only 1.5% is used by people! Rainfall

Where Does Rain Water Go?

In the last 50 years 21 million wells have dried up. In the last 50 years 21 million wells have dried up. The level of water in oceans is going down 1 meter per year. The level of water in oceans is going down 1 meter per year. Accessing ground water requires digging deeper. Accessing ground water requires digging deeper. While levels are falling we are extracting more water! While levels are falling we are extracting more water! Total estimated ground water in Pakistan is MAF. We are already very close to this limit! Total estimated ground water in Pakistan is MAF. We are already very close to this limit! Ground Water

Groundwater Levels in Punjab

Desert Crops

25,000 years ago, water collected under deserts. This water is non-renewable but is being used to grow vegetables and grain in KSA, Libya and Africa. 25,000 years ago, water collected under deserts. This water is non-renewable but is being used to grow vegetables and grain in KSA, Libya and Africa. Desert crops are inherently inefficient but feasible if ground- water is managed by treated, cyclic use and losses are minimized. Desert crops are inherently inefficient but feasible if ground- water is managed by treated, cyclic use and losses are minimized. Cost-effective lining/layering materials (e.g., HDPE/plastic sheets) can greatly reduce water losses in tanks, ponds, etc. Cost-effective lining/layering materials (e.g., HDPE/plastic sheets) can greatly reduce water losses in tanks, ponds, etc. Similarly, renewable energy powered (solar and wind) pumps can be used to transport water via drip/sprinklers. Similarly, renewable energy powered (solar and wind) pumps can be used to transport water via drip/sprinklers.

Shortages Today 1 out of 6 people face inadequate access to safe freshwater. Today 1 out of 6 people face inadequate access to safe freshwater. By 2025 more than half of the countries across the globe will face shortages according to the UN. By 2025 more than half of the countries across the globe will face shortages according to the UN. By 2050 up to 75% of the world could face shortages. By 2050 up to 75% of the world could face shortages. In Western India 30% of wells have dried up and been abandoned. In Western India 30% of wells have dried up and been abandoned. Residents of Las Vegas are one of the largest consumers of water in the world. Las Vegas was built in the desert! Residents of Las Vegas are one of the largest consumers of water in the world. Las Vegas was built in the desert! Water shortage could effect 2 billion people by Water shortage could effect 2 billion people by 2025.

Freshwater Availability Global Global 1950 – 16,800 cubic meters per annum 1950 – 16,800 cubic meters per annum 2000 – 6,800 cubic meters per annum 2000 – 6,800 cubic meters per annum Reduction of 60% in 50 years! Reduction of 60% in 50 years! Pakistan 1950 – 5,300 cubic meters per annum 2000 – 1,200 cubic meters per annum Reduction of 77% in 50 years! Critical limit: 1,000 cubic meters per person per annum

Population Growth Vs Water Availability

Consumption Not only does demand rise with population size and growth rate, it also tends to go up with income level. Not only does demand rise with population size and growth rate, it also tends to go up with income level. The rich also require wastewater treatment and intensive farm irrigation. The rich also require wastewater treatment and intensive farm irrigation. The world's largest consumer of water is an American. Next in line is a European. The world's largest consumer of water is an American. Next in line is a European.

Global Water Shortage Regions in Central Asia and North America face “physical” scarcity i.e., demand exceeds supply. Regions in Central Asia and North America face “physical” scarcity i.e., demand exceeds supply. Regions in Central Africa, South & South-East Asia face “economic” scarcity i.e., lack of training, bad governments or weak finances limit access, even though sufficient supplies are available. Regions in Central Africa, South & South-East Asia face “economic” scarcity i.e., lack of training, bad governments or weak finances limit access, even though sufficient supplies are available.

Ogallala Aquifer: 95% of the US fresh water supply is underground. The Ogallala aquifer was formed over millions of years and supplies 1/3rd of all US irrigation water. According to expectations it might last for only 60 more years. Ogallala Aquifer: 95% of the US fresh water supply is underground. The Ogallala aquifer was formed over millions of years and supplies 1/3rd of all US irrigation water. According to expectations it might last for only 60 more years. Tigris & Euphrates: Drainage and irrigation schemes in Iraq have led to the loss of an estimated 90% of one of the world’s most significant wetlands. Tigris & Euphrates: Drainage and irrigation schemes in Iraq have led to the loss of an estimated 90% of one of the world’s most significant wetlands. China: In the north all 3 rivers are severely polluted while the Yellow River which supplies water to China’s most critical farming region runs dry 200 days every year. China: In the north all 3 rivers are severely polluted while the Yellow River which supplies water to China’s most critical farming region runs dry 200 days every year. The mighty river Jordan is now a trickle across the planet. The mighty river Jordan is now a trickle across the planet. One in ten major rivers no longer flow into the sea for several months of a year. One in ten major rivers no longer flow into the sea for several months of a year. Water Hot Spots

Solutions for Shortages Limit waste Limit waste Build recycling and reclamation systems Build recycling and reclamation systems Improve water-delivery systems to reduce losses. Improve water-delivery systems to reduce losses. Channel water for crop fields to underground storage in the non-growing season. Channel water for crop fields to underground storage in the non-growing season. Extensive use of drip-irrigation systems that allow water to seep in slowly. Extensive use of drip-irrigation systems that allow water to seep in slowly. New crop varieties that can tolerate low water levels. New crop varieties that can tolerate low water levels. New desalination techniques such as membrane reverse-osmosis systems. New desalination techniques such as membrane reverse-osmosis systems.

Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Base Ensure that the natural water cycle is maintained Ensure that the natural water cycle is maintained Protect all water bodies from pollutants including rivers, lakes and flood- plains. Protect all water bodies from pollutants including rivers, lakes and flood- plains. For groundwater aquifers use artificial recharge in fresh zones. For groundwater aquifers use artificial recharge in fresh zones. Also minimize and drain effluent in saline areas. Also minimize and drain effluent in saline areas.

National Way Forward National Water Policy National Water Policy Provincial Water Visions in accordance with the Indus Water Treaty and later accords Provincial Water Visions in accordance with the Indus Water Treaty and later accords Creation of a Water Resources Development and Management Think Tank with experts from the Planning Commission, HEC, Universities, PEC, PSAE etc. Creation of a Water Resources Development and Management Think Tank with experts from the Planning Commission, HEC, Universities, PEC, PSAE etc. Control quality of water resources with house-hold waste management, controls on commercial and domestic use and upkeep and maintenance of infrastructure. Control quality of water resources with house-hold waste management, controls on commercial and domestic use and upkeep and maintenance of infrastructure. Control demand side with appropriate pricing, public conservation drives and provision of water-conserving house-hold appliances such as dual-flush toilets that allow for either a full flush or a half flush. Control demand side with appropriate pricing, public conservation drives and provision of water-conserving house-hold appliances such as dual-flush toilets that allow for either a full flush or a half flush.

Power of coal and oil (Black Gold) has dramatically changed the world. Power of coal and oil (Black Gold) has dramatically changed the world. Much of the World’s grain is converted into bio- feed and fed to raise livestock, thus used primarily to produce meat. Much of the World’s grain is converted into bio- feed and fed to raise livestock, thus used primarily to produce meat. Toxic pesticides used to improve crop yields penetrate the heart of every mother’s cells. Toxic pesticides used to improve crop yields penetrate the heart of every mother’s cells. Fertilizer, another Petrochemical byproduct which is generously used during harvesting, is producing its own harmful effects. Fertilizer, another Petrochemical byproduct which is generously used during harvesting, is producing its own harmful effects. Part 3: Food Production

Varieties of grain developed by farmers over thousands of years have been wiped out of the planet by new fast-growing crops. Varieties of grain developed by farmers over thousands of years have been wiped out of the planet by new fast-growing crops. The more a country is considered developed, the more meat its inhabitants produce and consume. The more a country is considered developed, the more meat its inhabitants produce and consume. Soya bean and protein-rich grains are mainly used to feed cattle not humans. Soya bean and protein-rich grains are mainly used to feed cattle not humans. Food Production

It takes 100 liters of water to produce 1kg of potatoes. It takes 100 liters of water to produce 1kg of potatoes. While it takes 4,000 liters of water to produce 1kg of rice. While it takes 4,000 liters of water to produce 1kg of rice. And it takes 30,000 liters of water to produce 1kg of beef. And it takes 30,000 liters of water to produce 1kg of beef. Food Production

Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter. Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter. Former Vice-Chancellor, Dean of Science and Professor. Former Vice-Chancellor, Dean of Science and Professor. MRCOG, FRCOG, FRCS, FACOG, FCPS, Phd. MRCOG, FRCOG, FRCS, FACOG, FCPS, Phd Thank You