Day after tomorrow film clip. Long-term climate change.

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Presentation transcript:

Day after tomorrow film clip

Long-term climate change

Climate Since the Industrial Revolution

“In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001

Future Climate Change?

How long a weather forecast do you trust? Source: On Monday…

How long a weather forecast do you trust? Source: On Tuesday…

How long a weather forecast do you trust? Source: On Wednesday…

How long a weather forecast do you trust? Source: On Thursday…

How long a weather forecast do you trust? Source: On Friday…

What affects the weather?

“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get”

What is a model?

A simple climate model The Earth incoming solar radiation outgoing radiation

climateprediction.net

Results so far…

Impacts

Thursday, 25 September, 2003 French heat toll almost 15,000 France's summer heatwave killed a total of 14,800 people, according to official figures released on Thursday. The figure covers 1-30 August, including a fortnight of record-breaking heat. The number is almost 4,000 more than previous Health Ministry estimates. The heat saw temperatures consistently above 40C in parts of Europe. ESTIMATED DEAD France - 14,800 Italy - 4,200 Netherlands - 1,400 Portugal - 1,300 UK - 900

The Russian Academy of Science issued a statement after the conference saying that it found "no scientific basis" for the Kyoto Protocol, and that a warmer Earth is actually positive for Russia, July 2004 “Climate change is the single most important long-term issue that we face as a global community “ Tony Blair, April 2004 Climate change is a far greater threat to the world than international terrorism, UK Government's chief scientific adviser, January 2004 President George W. Bush courageously rejected the Kyoto Protocol on global warming. In abandoning the agreement, the President cited the uncertainty of the science, the lack of commercially available technology, the loss of American jobs, and disruptions to the U.S. economy it would cause if the drastic cuts in carbon dioxide called for in the Protocol were implemented [2001]

The aim of the 1997 Kyoto protocol is to roll back global carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels.