EARTH SCIENCE DECADAL SURVEY AND COMMUNITY ISSUES By Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University ESS Chair with ESS members John R. Christy, Jonathan Foley, James Hansen, Raymond Hoff, Gregory Jenkins, Patricia Matrai, Julian McCreary, Patrick McCormick, Jean-Bernard Minster, Michael Ramsey, Steven Running, Kamal Sarabandi, Robert Schutz, Mark Simons, Konrad Steffen, Charles Vorosmarty Three parts: 1.Summary of Decadal Survey recommendations for NASA Earth Science 2.ESS perspective on ESD 3.Earth Science community issues for NAC Transition Team document

First NRC ESAS Decadal Survey (released Jan 07) Assembled by a broad committee and panels of Earth scientists with strong community input, NRC oversight Identifies societal priorities for Earth Science at a time of great public concern over global environmental change Does so in the face of decimated NASA budgets for Earth Science (down 30% since 2000) Presents a recommended schedule of NASA satellite missions for the next decade ( )

TOP TEN QUESTIONS FOR EARTH SCIENCE IDENTIFIED BY THE DECADAL SURVEY 10. Are major fault systems nearing release of stress via strong earthquakes? 9. Will tropical cyclones & heat waves become more frequent & intense? 8. What are health impacts of expanded “Ozone Hole” that could result from stratosphere cooling associated with climate change? 7. Will rare diseases become common, how will mosquito-borne viruses spread with changes in rainfall & drought, & can we better predict avian flu? 6. How will boreal forests shift as temperature & precipitation change at high latitudes, & what effects on animal migrations & invasive species will occur? 5. How will coastal & ocean ecosystems respond to changes in physical forcing, particularly those subject to intense human harvesting? 4. How will economic development affect air pollution & transport across oceans & continents, & how are pollutants transformed during transport? 3. How will reduced snowfall affect water storage requirements? 2. Will droughts become more widespread in U.S., Australia, & sub-Saharan Africa, & how will that affect wildfires? 1. Will major ice sheets (including Greenland & West Antarctica) collapse, & if so, how rapidly & what sea-level rise will result? Focus on societal priorities

Number USA MissionsNumber USA Instruments REDUCED NASA BUDGETS FOR EARTH SCIENCE THREATEN EARTH OBSERVATION FROM SPACE “Today, the system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse.” Decadal Survey Interim Report, April 2005 “At a time of unprecedented need, the nation’s Earth observation satellite programs, once the envy of the world, are in disarray.“ Decadal Survey Final Report, January 2007

TO DESIGN A CREDIBLE PROGRAM, DECADAL SURVEY HAD TO ASSUME RESTORATION OF NASA BUDGETS TO 2000 LEVELS (REAL DOLLARS) Decadal Survey This represents a 30% increase (500M$/y) over the current budget.

The Decadal Survey recommends 15 NASA missions for as a "minimal, yet robust, observational component of an Earth information system that is capable of addressing a broad range of societal needs." The recommended missions target the most pressing questions for understanding our home planet and its ongoing rapid change The DS also recommends a new class of NASA “Venture” missions in the $ M range to enable infusion of new ideas and technology The DS further stresses importance of R&A, applied sciences, suborbital, technology, modeling programs The full DS program is estimated to be fully doable with a 30% increase in the ESD budget…though ESD mission cost estimates are generally 20-80% higher than the DS DS warns against cherry-picking missions – would disrupt carefully crafted synergy and balance across fields

1 st cohort (“ ”) of NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-NASA portion) (1) Forcing & response of climate (climate)Precessing LEO Absolute, spectrally resolved solar interferometer $200M Soil Moisture Active- Passive (SMAP) (5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water) LEO, SSOL-band radar & radiometer $300M Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite –II (ICESat-II) (5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, water) LEO, Non- SSO Laser altimeter$300M Deformation, Ecosystem Structure & Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) (8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, health, solid earth, water) LEO, SSOL-band (1.2GHz) InSAR Laser altimeter $700M SMAP and ICESat-II are scheduled for launch in 2013 (SMAP), 2015 (ICESat-II); DESDynI and CLARREO are in definition note delay and slow pace relative to Decadal Survey schedule due to inadequate ESD budgets

2 nd cohort of NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (HyspIRI) (4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health (Ecosystem, health, solid earth) LEO, SSO Hyperspectral spectrometer $300M Active Sensing of CO 2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) (2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO 2 column for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, ecosystem, health) LEO, SSO Multifrequency laser $400M Surface Water/Ocean Topography (SWOT) (4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector- Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Climate, health, water) LEO, SSO Ku-band radar Ku-band altimeter Microwave radiometer $450M Geostationary Coastal & Air Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE) (9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) GEOHigh spatial resolution hyperspectral spectrometer Low spatial resolution imaging spectrometer IR correlation radiometer $550M Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (ACE) (10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate, ecosystem, health, weather) LEO, SSO Backscatter lidar Multiangle polarimeter Doppler radar $800M These missions are all in definition phase

3 rd cohort of NASA Missions Mission(#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes)OrbitInstrumentsEstimate Lidar Surface Topography (LIST) (3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth) LEO, SSO Modified Laser altimeter $300M Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH) (5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather) GEOMicrowave array spectrometer $450M Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II) (2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water) LEO, SSO Microwave or laser ranging system $450M Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP) (1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water) LEO, SSO Ku & X-band radars K & Ka-band radiometers $500M Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM) (7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) LEO, SSO UV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder $600M 3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo) (3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather) LEO, SSO Doppler lidar$650M Useful to start defining them, but will certainly be revisited in next Decadal Survey

Implementing the Decadal Survey program of missions (or at least a credible fraction) requires a 30% increase in ESD budgets The FY09 budget included an “Earth Science Initiative” but it is anemic and takes from space science - it should come from outside SMD!

ESS GENERAL PERSPECTIVE ON ESD Outstanding leadership: wise allocation of resources, embrace of Decadal Survey, reinforcement of programs, improvement of grant procedures Good distribution of resources between missions, R&A, other programs Problems with mission cost analysis and estimation are recognized and being addressed through improved models and cost analyses of past/future missions. Lack of control over overhead payments to Centers Endemic mission cost overruns (now OCO, Glory) Need to address perception that ESD missions are “too expensive” - is ESD making the best choices for mission management, risk acceptance, launch vehicles? Insufficient ESD visibility both within and outside NASA (e.g., ESD’s leading role in the interagency Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)) CONCERNS:

ACTION ON THE DECADAL SURVEY Aggressive schedule of missions should not come at the expense of R&A. Need to show flexibility in implementation of Decadal Survey and inject new strategic perspectives over coming years Need to maintain vitality in Earth science areas not served by first cohort of Decadal Survey missions Need better collaborations with international space partners First two missions (SMAP, ICESat-II) now have budget lines for launch by 2013 (SMAP), 2015 (ICESat-II) Other missions in first cohort (DESDynI, CLARREO) and missions in second cohort are in active definition phase Plan to establish the Venture-Class mission line –ESS has recommended that this should include both space and suborbital missions, with separate calls for each in alternate years –scope should be broad and not exclude Decadal Survey mission themes CONCERNS:

ACTION ON NPOESS NOAA NPOESS is intended to provide long-term climate monitoring for key variables, transitioning from NASA research satellites –Commitment to long-term monitoring is critical for climate science 2005 Nunn-McCurdy re-certification process led to descoping of climate sensors ESD has worked vigorously with NOAA and the White House Offices to restore most of the climate monitoring capability (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) NPOESS payloads seem to be in constant state of flux, and climate monitoring capabilities have not been fully restored; long-term records for variables such as ocean color and ozone profiles are in danger Protection of climate monitoring capability on NPOESS requires continual vigilance Consider using dedicated satellites for climate sensors to reduce piecemeal descoping risks. CONCERNS:

EARTH OBSERVATION FROM THE MOON 6/24/2006 North Pole 12/20/2006 South Pole as enabled by the NASA Lunar Exploration Program Lunar platform could provide continuous full-disk view of the Earth; a platform at the Earth-Moon L1 point would be particularly attractive Support from Lunar Exploration Program could enable stable platform, maintenance support, deployment of large hardware CONCERNS: Images from Jay Herman Planned location of south polar base is inadequate for Earth viewing Instrumentation on lunar surface is subject to dust, moonquakes, day- night heating differential, harsh radiation, power storage requirements

OTHER ESD PROGRAMS R&A, suborbital science, technology, data systems programs are strong and on track Importance of R&A is recognized ESD has been able to maintain 30% selection rate on proposals Program of NASA Earth Science graduate fellowships is a great success Trend toward 4-year proposals does not seem wise Need better opportunities for low-cost fundamental research NASA aircraft are underutilized Need better data-sharing protocols with international partners CONCERNS:

COMMUNITY ISSUES FOR TRANSITION TEAM DOCUMENT NASA Earth observing system is on the brink of collapse at a time of unprecedented public concern over global change – consequence of 30% budget cut for Earth science since NRC Decadal Survey offers a community strategy for a minimum yet robust system of Earth observation from space in the next decade; can be implemented with a 30% ESD budget increase. Long-term monitoring of critical climate variables is essential for understanding climate change, but is in peril in the absence of a clear government mandate fpr NPOESS. Earth observation from space is a global responsibility and NASA needs to work better with its international partners; this in turn requires stability and commitment for ESD. 1-pager from ESS submitted to Jack Burns – summary points: …and the overarching Earth science question: “How will human activity and natural perturbations drive global environmental change in the next century?”