New Zealand Volcanic Ash Advisory System (NZVAAS) June 2004 Peter Lechner Head of Business Planning and Reporting Meteorological Authority and Technical Specialist Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand

Volcanic Ash & Aviation sThe Risk and the Reality sBackground and Development sOur Volcanoes sSystem Responsibilities sAlert levels and Volcanic Hazard Areas sExperience

An Increasing Risk sEnhanced jet engine technology sGrowth of air traffic volumes sIncreasing risk of volcanic activity over time

Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, 1996

Airspace Closures 1995/6 Cost; Airlines >$10million CAA >$0.5million Others ?

Ash Distribution

The CAA Experience CAA management of air traffic in a changing and sometimes chaotic ash environment is difficult, expensive and potentially ineffective.

White Island Mayor Is. Whale Is. Rumbles I - V Curtis Is. Brimstone Is. Macauley Is. Raoul Is. Monowai Seamont Unnamed x 3 Kaikohe-Bay of Islands Whangarei Auckland Field Egmont Reporoa Maroa Taupo Tongariro Ngauruhoe Ruapehu Rotorua Okataina Volcanic Threat to NZ Aviation

sAlerts and observations of eruptions sTracking and drift prediction sInformation flow sAir space management sAirline discretion sEducation sSystem ownership and funding Volcanic Ash Issues

Collaborative Development sAircraft operators sMetService sAirways Corporation sCivil Aviation Authority sInstitute Geological & Nuclear Sciences

MetService ACNZIGNS Aircraft Operators Volcano VAR feedback SIGMET (RTF etc) VAR by RTF VAR by fax (post flight) SIGMET (AFTN) VARs Alert level & eruption information Satellite or other eruption Information Electronic & visual eruption & status information Confirm or deny information Independent observations or liaison Other people NOTAM Request (& confirmation) NOTAM Normal pre-flight Met. information VAR feedback NZVAAS - 1

NZVAAS To ensure a satisfactory means exists whereby civil aviation aircraft operations can be safely carried out near volcanic ash. 2.The CAA is not responsible for providing any service to airlines to directly assist them with such operations. CAA Responsibility:

NZVAAS Review the effectiveness of the volcanic ash information system from time to time. 2.Ensure ACNZ, MetService and IGNS have any delegations or permissions required under the Civil Aviation Act 1990 to carry out their roles. 3.Publish, in the appropriate medium, a clear statement of how the volcanic ash information system works in New Zealand. 4.Continue to publish any appropriate educational or technical information on aircraft operation in or near volcanic ash, the volcanic situation in New Zealand or any other relevant material. 5.Establish any new Volcanic Hazard Zones (VHZ) that may be needed to cover volcanoes other than those contemplated. CAA Role:

MetService ACNZIGNS Aircraft Operators Volcano VAR feedback SIGMET (RTF etc) VAR by RTF VAR by fax (post flight) SIGMET (AFTN) VARs Alert level & eruption information Satellite or other eruption Information Electronic & visual eruption & status information Confirm or deny information Independent observations or liaison Other people NOTAM Request (& confirmation) NOTAM Normal pre-flight Met. information VAR feedback NZVAAS - 4

ACNZIGNS Aircraft Operators Volcano VAR feedback SIGMET (RTF etc) VAR by RTF VAR by fax (post flight) SIGMET (AFTN) VARs Alert level & eruption information Satellite or other eruption Information Electronic & visual eruption & status information Confirm or deny information Independent observations or liaison Other people NOTAM Request (& confirmation) NOTAM Normal pre-flight Met. information VAR feedback NZVAAS - 5 MetService

ACNZIGNS Aircraft Operators Volcano VAR feedback SIGMET (RTF etc) VAR by RTF VAR by fax (post flight) SIGMET (AFTN) VARs Alert level & eruption information Satellite or other eruption Information Electronic & visual eruption & status information Confirm or deny information Independent observations or liaison Other people NOTAM Request (& confirmation) NOTAM Normal pre-flight Met. information VAR feedback NZVAAS - 6

MetService ACNZIGNS Aircraft Operators Volcano VAR feedback SIGMET (RTF etc) VAR by RTF VAR by fax (post flight) SIGMET (AFTN) VARs Alert level & eruption information Satellite or other eruption Information Electronic & visual eruption & status information Confirm or deny information Independent observations or liaison Other people NOTAM Request (& confirmation) NOTAM Normal pre-flight Met. information VAR feedback NZVAAS - 7

Volcano Alert Levels FREQUENTLY ACTIVE VOLCANOES White Island, Tongariro -Ngauruhoe, Ruapehu SCIENTIFIC ALERT LEVEL REAWAKENING VOLCANOES Kermadecs, Northland, Auckland, Mayor Island, Rotorua, Okataina, Taupo, Egmont Volcano StatusIndicative Phenomena Volcano Status Usual dormant or quiescent state. Typical background surface activity; seismicity, deformation and heat flow at low levels. 0 Usual dormant or quiescent state. Signs of volcano unrest. Departure from typical background surface activity. 1 Apparent seismic, geodetic, thermal or other unrest indicators Initial signs of possible volcano unrest. No eruption threat. Minor eruptive activity.Onset of eruptive activity, accompanied by changes to monitored indicators. 2 Increase in number or intensity of unrest indicators (seismicity, deformation, heat flow etc.). Confirmation of volcano unrest. Eruption threat. Significant local eruption in progress. Increased vigour of ongoing activity and monitored indicators. 3 Minor eruptions. High increasing trends of unrest indicators, significant effects on volcano and possibly beyond. Minor eruptions commenced. Real possibility of hazardous eruptions. Hazardous local eruption in progress. Significant change to ongoing activity and monitoring indicators. Effects beyond volcano. 4 Eruption of new magma. Sustained high levels of unrest indicators, significant effects beyond volcano. Hazardous local eruption in progress. Large scale eruption now possible. Large hazardous eruption in progress. Destruction with major damage beyond volcano. Significant risk over wider areas. 5 Destruction with major damage beyond active volcano. Significant risk over wider areas. Large hazardous volcanic eruption in progress.

Volcanic Hazard Zone Limits Volcano Alert Level Radius from Vent (nm) Volcanic Hazard Zone Upper Limit Ruapehu (VHZ 314) Ngauruhoe (VHZ313) White Island (VHZ 211) Any other NZ volcano 13 12,200ft AMSL 10,500ft AMSL 4,500ft AMSL 3000 ft above vent 28FL FL FL 480 5>50unlimited

Volcanic Hazard Zones For Alert Level 3 VHZ = 16nm radius, ground level to FL 330

Operator Discretion sAirlines now decide where and when they can safely operate during a volcanic event sOnly possible through the conjoint and co-operative provision of NZVAAS

Summary sThreat of volcanic ash in aviation is increasing sNZVAAS implemented to mitigate that risk at a local level sNZVAAS supplements ICAO IAVW sA high level of good information is available sNZVAAS permits aircraft operations to safely continue in proximity to ash sIt is a low cost scalable operation

Conclusion NZVAAS: s An effective system for New Zealand s Its success stems from: formal arrangements and systems, and co-operative and collaborative relationships