7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine  the predictability of climate  the effect of human activities on climate WCRP.

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Presentation transcript:

7 October 2003COST 723 Objectives To determine  the predictability of climate  the effect of human activities on climate WCRP

7 October 2003COST 723 TOGA GEWEX 1988  WOCE SPARC 1992  ACSYS 1994–2003 CLIVAR 1995  WGNE WGCM, CliC 2000 

7 October 2003COST 723 Aim of SPARC To bring stratospheric expertise to bear on scientific issues concerned with climate processes and climate prediction; for the benefit of –WCRP –WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment –IPCC –Space Agencies

7 October 2003COST 723 Current SPARC Themes Stratospheric Indicators of Climate Change –Trends in T, O 3 and H 2 O in UTLS Stratospheric Process and their Relation to Climate –UTLS – gravity wave process + parametrisation Modelling stratospheric effects on climate –GCM Reality Intercomparison Project (GRIPS) –reference climatology Special projects (e.g.) –aerosol assessment –data assimilation

7 October 2003COST 723 Recent Deliverables "Stratospheric temperature trends: observations and model simulations" (paper by STTA group, awarded the WMO Norbert Gerbier-MUMM Award, 2003). Stratospheric reference climatology WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment 2002 –Chap. 4 Global Ozone: past and future.

7 October 2003COST 723 Stratospheric Chemistry and Climate Stratosphere- Troposphere coupling Detection and Attribution of Past Stratospheric Changes Model Development Process Studies Data Future Themes

7 October 2003COST 723 Stratospheric Chemistry and Climate How will stratospheric ozone and other constituents evolve? How will changes in stratospheric composition affect climate? What are the links between changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and tropospheric chemistry?

7 October 2003COST 723 Detection and Attribution of Past Stratospheric Changes What are the past changes and variations in the stratosphere? How well can we explain past changes in terms of natural and anthropogenic effects.

7 October 2003COST  uncertainty Compiled using radiosonde, satellite and analysed data sets Mean vertical profile of annual & decadal temperature trend at 45 o N.

7 October 2003COST 723 Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling What is the role of dynamical and radiative coupling with the stratosphere in extended range tropospheric weather forecasting? What is the role of dynamical and radiative coupling in determining long-term trends in tropospheric climate? By what mechanisms do the stratosphere and troposphere act as a coupled system?

7 October 2003COST 723 Future Deliverables Temperature Trend Assessment Report. Aerosol Assessment Report. Review on AO/NAO for strat-trop system. Review of gravity-wave parameterisations (after Chapman conference 2003). Review of scientific issues in chemistry-climate. Ozone: coherent review on GCM/CTM. predictions of mid-latitude O 3 anticipating next WMO/UNEP requirement. IPCC

7 October 2003COST 723 SPARC General Assembly 1-6 August 2004 Victoria, Canada Co-chairs of Programme Committee: –A.R. Ravishankara & T. Shepherd Chair of LOC: N. McFarlane Web site (to be launched in few weeks time)