기후모델 : 기후변화연구의 인프라 Climate Model: Infrastructure for Climate Change Research Wonsun Park Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences Kiel, Germany KOFST Ultra.

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Presentation transcript:

기후모델 : 기후변화연구의 인프라 Climate Model: Infrastructure for Climate Change Research Wonsun Park Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences Kiel, Germany KOFST Ultra Program (Environment and Energy) EU-Korea Conference on Science and Technology 2010 Vienna, Austria, 30 July 2010

Future climate projections with climate models IPCC 2007

Contents Climate Modelling –Earth/Climate System –Climate model development –European Infrastructure –Kiel example Uncertainty in climate projection

Climate modelling

Earth/Climate system

Climate Model

Earth system modelling

Atmosphere: MPI-M (ECHAM) MétéoFrance (ARPEGE) IPSL (LMDZ) MetOffice (Unified Model) UREADMY INGV Atmospheric Chemistry: MPI-M UREADMY IPSL MetOffice MétéoFrance KNMI Land Surface IPSL (Orchidée) MetOffice MPI-M UREADMY MétéoFrance (ISBA) Sea Ice: NERSC UCL-ASTR MetOffice IPSL MPI-M Ocean Biogeochemistry: MPI-BGC IPSL MPGIMET MetOffice Ocean: MetOffice (FOAM) MPI-M (HOPE) IPSL (OPA/ORCA) UREADMY Regional Climate: SHMI DMI MetOffice Coupler CERFACS European Earth System Modelling Developing Infrastructure (EU FP5 example, currently FP7 IS-ENES)

Modeling the past, present, and future climate (An Oceanographic Institute Example)

Tropical Pacific Climate in the Kiel Climate Model Park et al., 2009 J. Clim.

Ocean is an important player High Resolution (ORCA025, ORCA12) Coarse Resolution (ORCA2, ORCA05) High-Res. Nest (1/10° Agulhas) Figures show snapshots of near-surface speed version i x j x k ORCA22°182 x 149 x 31 ORCA051/2°722 x 511 x 46 ORCA0251/4°1442 x 1021 x 46 ORCA121/12°4322 x 3059 x 46 Courtesy Arne Biastoch

Climate Model Development Prerequisites 1.Scientific question or Societies’ needs is an important factor when considering specific model configurations: model resolutions, level of Earth system components, downscaling (refinement), etc. 2.Large community is advantageous: International cooperation 3.Climate model is a national/institutional infrastructure: Long-term investigation

Total annual Precipitation REMO 1/2 ° ( ) REMO 1/6 ° ( ) Observations ( ) © D. Jacob, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Regional scale becomes more important

REMO-YES REMO-YS REMO-ES Grids 1/2, 61x73 1/6, 81x121 1/6, 91x129 North Pole (52.5N, 50.0W) (52.5N, 50.0W)(52.5N, 50.0W) Lower-left (-15.0, -17.0) (-11.0, -14.0) (-5.0, -5.0) ES YS ECS Yellow Sea East Sea East China Sea Application to Korea Boundary condition from Reanalysis or Model

Climate Model Development Prerequisites 1.Scientific question or Societies’ needs is an important factor when considering specific model configurations: model resolutions, level of Earth system components, downscaling (refinement), etc. 2.Large community is advantageous: International cooperation 3.Climate model is a national/institutional infrastructure: Long-term investigation

Climate Model Infrastructure 1.Hardware: Super Computer + Maintenance 2.Software: Models + Pre/postprocessing 3.Human Resource: Scientific Brilliance + High performance computing techniques Efficient use of limited resources becomes more important Determination can be done by societies’ need (Natural+Socioeconomic communities feedbacks) International example: CMIP-IPCC-UNFCCC

Building a new climate model: Easy or not? Component models –Atmosphere General Circulation, Ocean General Circulation, Sea ice, Atmosphere Chemistry, Ocean Biogeochemistry, Land Vegetation, Ice sheet, etc. Coupling –Grid interpolation, time control, communication between models Technical and physical interfaces Development and Tuning (better parameterizations)

IPCC Assessment Reports (CMIP: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) IPCC (2007) AR4 23 models –Asia/Pacific (6), Europe (9), North America (9) (Korea/Germany co-contribution) IPCC (2013) AR5 –WG1 The Physical Science Basis Schedule Nov 2011 zero-order paper preparation Jul 2012 Paper must be submitted Mar 2013 Paper must be published/accepted –Tentative models (33 as of Jun 2010: Australia 2, China 4, Japan 8, Korea/UK 1, France 3, Germany 1, Norway 1, Russia 1, UK 4, Canada 1, USA 7) + more

Uncertainty in Climate Projection

Past 20 th century Natural + Anthropogenic forcings Natural forcing only

Weather Forecast vs. Climate Prediction Weather forecasting limited to 14 days [Lorenz 1963] Climate prediction: Role of external forcing on the atmosphere Initial value problem vs. Boundary value problem

Decadal Prediction (Mixed Initial and Boundary value problem) Keenyside et al. 2008

Climate projection uncertainty internal variability scenario model bias Hawkins and Sutton 2009

Conclusions Current generation of climate models represents partly well the past and present climates, but the models are not complete yet. Climate models still need to be improved. Also, we need a suitable climate observing system. Climate models are national/institutional infrastructures (hardware, software, expert). Global climate change is real. But, level of Internal (Natural) and External (Anthropogenic) contribution is still an issue.