Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts.  Short–Term Forecasting ◦ Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step ◦ Source of Information:

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts

 Short–Term Forecasting ◦ Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step ◦ Source of Information: Antecedent basin conditions and weather forecast  Long-Term Forecasting ◦ Predict seasonal flow regimes 3-6 months ahead of time ◦ Source of Information: Climate teleconnections ◦ Used to determine which years are strong candidates to meet inter-annual eco-targets

Change in timing of peak flows in NE Rivers

1. Characterize the influence of basin characteristics (e.g., snow) and climate influences (e.g., NAO) on CT River streamflow 2. Develop probabilistic forecasts of streamflow at long lead times (3 – 6 months) 3. Use the “tilt of the odds” to assess conditions for achieving multiple basin objectives

Previous studies have found influence of North Atlantic Oscillation

Climate in Previous Season Predict Shape of Tradeoff Better opportunities for meeting eco-targets Less opportunity for meeting eco-targets

Weekly Streamflow Forecasts Optimization ModelSimulation Model Short-Term System Performance Under Standard Operations Short-Term System Performance Under Optimal Operations Operator Judgment Plan for weekly operations

HYDROLOGY MODELS OF SYE INDEX SITES METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT SYE INDEX SITES SYE ESTIMATION METHOD STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT ANY LOCATION IN THE BASIN!