North Carolina Agriculture Blake Brown, PhD Extension Economist & Hugh C. Kiger Professor Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics North Carolina State University

Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook Immigration reform (by executive order or otherwise) Regulation: FDA, EPA…. Rising interest rates Lower energy prices Strengthening dollar Weak economic recovery in Europe “Know your food”

“ Farms with direct sales to consumers were 6.9 percent of the nation’s 2.1 million farms in 2012, but those sales accounted for only 0.3 percent of total agriculture sales.” “Farmers Marketing” USDA 2012 Census of Agriculture “USDA estimates that farm-level value of local food sales totaled about $4.8 billion in 2008,…” Congressional Research Service Value of NC Ag Direct Sales: $29.1 million in 2007 Census

What about growth in global demand for food?

“Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from today’s levels, reaching 9.15 billion by At the global level, agricultural production and consumption in 2050 are projected to be 60 percent higher than in 2005/07.” FAO “Question your Assumptions” about Global Growth in demand says Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Ag Economist & Senior VP GNP growth drives demand not population growth China GNP growth will be primary driver Brazil has 470 million acres in untapped potential Africa has 990 million acres in untapped potential….but is plagued by Political Instability and poor or no infrastructure

Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture Outlook China – Slowing economic growth in China – But increasing demand for meat Growing world population…. Growing world GNP…. Competition from Brazil Competition from other regions??? Political conflict & Infrastructure

Urban Growth and NC Agriculture

Composition of NC Agriculture

Source: NC Ag Statistics Yearbook 2013 NC Agriculture is Diverse Broilers 24.7% Turkeys 6.1% Dairy 1.9% Livestock, Poultry and Dairy 2/3 of all NC Farm Receipts Eggs 3.4% Cattle 2.6%

Specialty Crops 2012 Cash Receipts $ million Tobacco$754 Sweet Potatoes$198 Peanuts$151 Christmas Trees$75 Blueberries$71 Squash$37 Potatoes$36 Watermelons$35 Strawberries$29 Cucumbers$29

NC Agriculture’s Place in US Agriculture

Distribution of 2010 Cash Farm Receipts: Total Crops, Livestock and Government Payments Source: NCDACS

Structure of NC farms

NC had 52,913 farms in 2007 Average Farm Acreage: 160 Sales less than $250,000 Source: USDA-NASS

NC had 50,210 farms in 2012 Average Farm Acreage: 168 Source: USDA-NASS

Type of Farm: Total Sales NC farms had total sales of $10.3 billion in 2007 Source: USDA-NASS

Type of Farm: Land in Farms NC farms had 8.47 million acres of farm land in 2007 Source: USDA-NASS

Summary of NC Agriculture Very diverse agriculture Many small farms, but also large diversified farms Characterized by vertically coordinated contract hog & poultry sector AND by very diverse specialty agriculture Growing urban population with growth in local foods