, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service Yoav Levi, Head R&D.

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Presentation transcript:

, experience at the Israeli Meteorological Service Yoav Levi, Head R&D

77 IMS personnel

2012 IMS News New data policy - the IMS stopped selling products (data and forecasts), as all IMS budget is covered by the government. Less employees for public services and more for research. R&D from 5 to 8 employees. A new HPC.

SGI HPC with 1024 cores 32 nodes of 2 AMD 16 core Opteron 6276 processors

HPC performance

IMS Research & Development AgroMeteorology Fire, Evaporation, Frost (1) Nowcasting (INCA) Remote sensing (1) NWP COSMO + WRF (3+consultant) Climate prediction Seasonal to CC (2)

NWP at IMS IMS runs WRF, HRM and testing COSMO. IMS has decided to join COSMO and use it operationally for forecasting duties and upgrade our NWP skills. 2 young FTE’s and a consultation from Dr. Shimon Krichak from the Tel-Aviv Uni. (50%).

2012 Research MSG - Land Surface Temperature (LST) and IR to evaluate frost and cloud fraction in partial filed pixels (replace human observations). Could it be relevant for Soil and Surface working group (WG3b), conditional verification (WG5)?

Where vegetation is enhanced evapo- transpiration reduces temperature COSMO_LST > MSG_LST

After Dry Season 70 km Tel Aviv Jerusalem

At spring with ~2 octas

INCA-Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis. NWP interpolated and adjusted to 1 Km grid together with 85 AWS observation. Could it be relevant for Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation (KENDA), grid verification(WG5)?

Wind energy atlas COSMO 2.8 km as input to a micro- scale model

Forecast verification comparing to Bet Dagan Radiosond -IT DA?

60 hour average RMSE for T2m 7km 12km14km16km 20km Tel Aviv

:T2m :COSMO-IT :12Z+18h :Bet Dagan near Tel Aviv Observations ( o C) Model ( o C) Temperature error ( o C) Frequency of events (%) התפלגות השגיאות : RMSE 2 = STD 2 + MBE 2

RMSE ( o C) Forecast range (hr) RMSE for 12Z runs COSMO-IT Bet Dagan Large RMSE at 06Z

Forecast range (hr) RMSE ( o C) Decrees RMSE Frequency of events (%) Temperature error ( o C) Last 7 Days bias correction No correction 7 days bias correction

כל המודלים RMSE W/O correction RMSE ( o C) Forecast range (hr) Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv 213/263 events CO-IT CO-IL UKMO ECMWF 12Z 6Z 18Z

כל המודלים RMSE after bias correction RMSE ( o C) Forecast range (hr) Bet Dagan – near Tel aviv CO-IT CO-IL UKMO ECMWF

Summery for Temperature verification Mean 60-hours RMSE score without bias correction ECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME Bet Dagan Jerusalem Haifa Har Knaan Mean 60-hours RMSE score with last 7 days bias correction ECMWFUKMOCO-ITGFSWRFCO-ILHRMGME Bet Dagan Jerusalem Haifa Har Knaan

COSMO-IL, nocturnal RH 10% underestimation

COSMO underestimates humidity! & misses fog AWS obs.

We live in a dry environment but COSMO makes it worse! CO-IT – icbc from ECMWF CO-IL – icbc from GME obs CO

Summary, IMS experience with Good Temperature and wind forecasts. Underestimation of Relative Humidity and fog appearance. Strong underestimation of precipitation. Hopefully we will mange together to improve COSMO skills in the future.

Israeli Meteorological Service Thanks