The Long View: Trends in Policies to Address Mobile Sources Around the World Dr. Miriam Lev-On The LEVON Group, LLC Thousand Oaks, California UCLA Research/Policy Symposium: Lake Arrowhead, California, 17 October 2005

The issue at a glance... Growth, development & energy demand  Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement for economic and social development.  Energy demand could double or triple by 2050 as a result of development. Facts and trends The dynamics of technological change  Global technological change is a lengthy process, measured in decades.  Very large systems such as transport and energy infrastructures can take up to a century to fully develop.

How will our energy system develop? Primary, Energy, EJ ’s Coal economy OECD countries Non-OECD countries Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear New renewables such as wind and solar The transition is uncertain? 2050 Low High Source: IEA Scenarios

The lifetime of energy infrastructure The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ yrs Hydro 75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings years

Light duty vehicles trends Total vehicles, millions Total alternative vehicles Total traditional vehicles Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a. Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a. Large scale "alternative" vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. thereafter. Source: WBCSD, 2004; Mobility 2030

Air quality and public health nexus Health protective ambient air quality standards: Pb, SO 2, NO 2, CO, O 3 and PM (PM 10 / PM 2.5 ) Visibility Impairment and Regional Haze: Linked to fine particles Air Toxics exposure outdoors Vehicles emit directly in the breathing zone Linkage between local air quality and global climate Transboundary transport LA Smog

Elements for a worldwide science- based air quality management process Identification of air quality problems by monitoring, Development of Emissions Inventories and pollutant fingerprinting for pinpointing problem areas, Assessment of needed emissions reductions to meet air quality goals within an appropriate attainment timelines, Definition of needed air pollution regulations to achieve the required emission reductions, Adoption and implementation of defined regulations, Periodic review of the plan to improve it Tel-Aviv Dust Storm

What is transportation share of emissions? Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved over the last decade CO NO x Lead VOCs CO 2 Particulates 79% 53% 13% 44% 33% 25% SO 2 7% Source: US EPA

Developed countries have reduced local emissions

Why is action difficult in the transport sector? Fragmented and self interested actors Tensions between transport and environmental policies Increase mobility and improve goods movement – Vs.- Reduce emissions and adverse environmental impacts Developing countries problems Lower incomes, poorer resource base Old fleets, low replacement rates No maintenance culture Very low quality fuels and fuel adulteration Poor public sector administrative capability Cairo

International initiatives to address transportation related air quality Plethora of initiatives have sprouted over the last decade World Bank Clean Air Initiative UN Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles US DOE Clean Cities International And the list is growing Developing countries are rushing to adopt US or EU style emissions and fuel standards Systematic air quality planning is sprouting in many regions Improvement of Emissions & Efficiency Use of Clean, Alternative & Renewable Fuels Reduction of Vehicle Miles Traveled Common elements of the strategies envisioned

Typical Developing Country Context Little quantitative assessment of air quality problem High PM emissions from heavy- duty vehicles and 2-3 wheelers Old vehicle fleets, second hand vehicle imports, low maintenance, Lack of inspections - fuel adulteration Weak enforcement of rules and performance standards Poor traffic management India

Emerging Planning Tool - International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) Goal - Provide a more accurate method to estimate on-road emissions worldwide Accomplishments - Developed IVE computer model for estimating emissions Developed methodologies for vehicle operating parameters and local fleet distribution (applied in 11 cities worldwide) Developed methodology for on-road vehicle emission testing to improve model performance (applied in 3 cities worldwide) Reports and Model Courtesy: Jim Lents et. al.

IVE - Observed Vehicle Class Distribution

IVE - Observed average driving characteristics

IVE - Fleet Average Emission Rates

Key Factors for Success It is critical to have goals and timelines along with a commitment to cleaner air A science based air quality management process is essential including regular reviews and enhancements Air Quality Management must be integrated between pollutants, consider other media (such as water and land impacts), and follow public trends Cost-Benefit analyses should be strengthened in order to ensure proper spending of limited public resources Engagement of all stakeholders is a key to creating the political will to take on tough issues

The issue at a glance... Where do we go from here? Reshaping our energy future  By 2050 energy demand will be sharply higher,  Global emissions must be no higher than today and trending downward,  No single solution will deliver this change. What should we focus on?  Environmental goals, quality and equality  Discussions with governments regarding the ‘fuel&vehicle’ systems approach  Dissemination of new technologies for new vehicles and for retrofits of existing ones  Proper enforcement of laws and regulations  Rethinking the integration of transportation and quality of life issues