National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 4 December 2012.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

ENSO-Induced Drought Impacts on Groundwater Levels in the Lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin By Subhasis Mitraa, Puneet Srivastavaa, Lynn.

Advertisements

National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 5 June 2012.

Climate Recap and Seasonal Outlook Dr. John Abatzoglou Assistant Prof, Department of Geography University of Idaho Many Thanks to Eric.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 22 July 2014.

Jim Noel Service Coordination Hydrologist March 2, 2012

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 17 March 2015.

December Briefing. Outline Current Conditions Primary Factors – 2 nd Year La Nina – Drought Region / Feedback – Role of AO/NAO Streamflow Outlook – Historical.

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® USACE – ACF Operations Bailey Crane Water Management USACE, Mobile District.

California and Nevada Drought is extreme to exceptional.

Agencies represented… Alabama Dept of Environmental Management Alabama Office of Water Resources Auburn University City of LaGrange, GA Flint River Water.

Recap of WY ENSO is typically very stable from Oct-Jan.

Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.

U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N What.

Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint Focus Area - USGS WaterSMART NIDIS SE Climate Forum Lake Lanier Islands, GA December 2, 2011.

Recap of Water Year 2007 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2008 Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Recap of Water Year 2009 Hydrologic Forecast and Forecasts for Water Year 2010 Francisco Munoz-Arriola Alan F. Hamlet Shraddhanand Shukla Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Winter Outlook ( ) Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI / Oregon Chapter of the AMS 29 October 2011 Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Climate.gov news article: The drought-busting benefits of atmospheric rivers Atmospheric rivers are the source of 30-50% of precipitation along the US.

CRFS November 20, JUL-SEP PRECIPITATION Good monsoon - except San Juan… September 2014 not quite as wet as 2013, but close! Precipitation above.

Climate Variability and Forecasting in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 16 June 2015.

2013 Spring Weather Outlook MARAC Region V Meeting April 24, 2013 Cindy Bean Meteorologist National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office San Joaquin.

Municipal Water District of Orange County 2015 Water Supply Report February 10, 2015.

“Where America’s Climate, Weather Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Michelle L’Heureux NOAA Climate Prediction Center December 3, 2009 El Niño: What.

Drought in the West: Short-Range Forecasts to Assist with Local and Regional Planning Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC Association of Bay Area Governments: Water/Land.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 18 August 2015.

Drought in California How Did We Get Here and What Can We Expect This Year? November 7th 2014 APWA Sacramento Chapter Meeting Alan Haynes Service Coordination.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 19 May 2015.

National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 8 May 2012.

PAGASA-DOST Presscon - 04 October 2010 Amihan Conference Room.

Water Year Outlook. Long Range Weather Forecast Use a combination of long term predictors –Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) –Phase of Atlantic.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

“Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies on the Climate of Southern South Carolina and Northern Coastal Georgia ” Whitney Albright Joseph.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 21 JuLY 2015.

Chad McNutt and Lisa Darby NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory/Climate Program Office.

Drought Early Warning and Information Tools KT Ingram Presented to Southeast-ACF Drought Early Warning Information System Development Workshop: Apalachicola.

NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: April 2011 Mark Svoboda and Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Drought Response Plan Clarke County, Virginia Saving Water/Saving Money: Water Conservation in the Shenandoah Valley March 11, 2009 Alison Teetor Natural.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 14 October 2014.

ACF River Basin Stakeholders Governing Board Hydrometeorological Briefing May 18, 2011.

National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 28 August 2012.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering.

Current Rainfall, Soil Moisture, Stream Flows, Groundwater and Reservoir Conditions in the ACF David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate.

Hydrologic Conditions Update and Outlook for Flood Season December 2013 Hydrology and Flood Operations Office Division of Flood Management Department.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 14 April 2015.

Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia - David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering.

USACE Managing a Drought  Overview  Timeline  Depletion Scenario Current Status– 17 Oct 07.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

Winter/Spring Outlook Derrick Weitlich National Weather Service Melbourne Central Florida Prescribed Fire Council Annual Meeting September 25,

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 13 January 2015.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12,

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

1 Hydro-climate Review for the water year 2008 Kingtse C. Mo and Wanru Wu Kingtse C. Mo and Wanru Wu Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS Climate Prediction.

Climate Variability in the Southeast NIDIS Southeast Pilot, Apalachicola Workshop Apalachicola, FL April 27, 2010 David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist.

2 Where we are at Year Year Precipitation Summary.

NE Drought Conditions CARC Update: November 17, 2015 Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln School of Natural Resources.

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 16 December 2014.

This Year (2014) So Far/ A Look Ahead John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting.  Discussion Topics:  2013 Fire Season (review)  Winter and Spring  What’s new for 2014  Seasonal Outlook for.

The South American Monsoon System Summary September 2014-May 2015 Prepared by Vernon E. Kousky Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 2015 For more information,

June 2009: How severe is the current drought in the Hill Country?

Seasonal Outlook for 2010 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall D. S. Pai Director, Long Range Forecasting South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF -1) April.

S O U T H F L O R I D A W A T E R M A N A G E M E N T D I S T R I C T Water Conditions Summary Jeff Kivett, PE, Division Director Operations, Engineering.

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

Hydrologic Conditions: Surface and Ground Water Resources July 2012

Alan F. Hamlet Andrew W. Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Winter/Spring Outlook:

Presentation transcript:

National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin 4 December 2012

Outline Welcome – Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate Consortium, UF Current drought status and how we got here – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Reservoir status and projections – Bailey Crane, US ACE Seasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSU Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center, NOAA Summary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC

Current drought status from Drought Monitor

14-Day Precipitation Totals

Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Since Jan. 1

Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: Previous Brief:

Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current: Previous brief:

Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

USACE – ACF Operations

2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage

Lake Lanier

West Point

W.F. George

Woodruff

5-Day Precipitation Forecast

7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

Multivariate ENSO Index

1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

Fall Rainfall Climatology

U.S. Drought Outlook

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

Summary Drought conditions have spread througout the entire ACF with drought in the central part of the basin categorized as extreme to exceptional Similarly, streamflows are below average streamflows throughout the entire basin, though inflows to West Point are normal because of releases from Lake Lanier Ground water levels in S Georgia remain at historic low levels Basin inflows are about 1600 cfs below outflows, so reservoir levels have continued to decline, with Lake Lanier approaching the threshold for conservation zone 4

Summary The 5-day outlook is for less than 1 inch of precipitation in the northern half of the basin and no rain in the southern half ENSO conditions remain neutral, so a total of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall are expected for the basin in each month of December and January Streamflow forecasts at 1 and 3 months all suggest that drought conditions will persist or worsen

References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Bailey Crane, USACE Jeff Dobur, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

Thank you! Next briefing – 18 December 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at webinars Please send comments and suggestions to: