Denver World Oil Conference The Peak Oil Context PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie Parkman & Co. November 11, 2005

The challenge of Peak Oil To meet a challenge You first have to recognise you face a challenge I aim to show you that: ‘Peak Oil’ is real and imminent That time is short That adaptation will not be easy

Current World Production in Serious Decline (Millions b/d) Conclusion: Depletion Matters

Reality and Illusion Inflexion due to falling Discovery Illusion As Reported Actual Reality

2  World crude oil production is peaking.  Depletion is real.  Exploration is a rational process.  Production will decline irreversibly.  Liquids from the growing international natural gas industry will supplement crude oil supplies.  High prices are required to constrain consumption. There is no such thing as scarcity and no such thing as surplus. There is only price.  Transportation is the dominant growing use for oil.  High cost oil will be replaced with cheaper natural gas and other substitutes in stationary fuel use in developing economies as occurred in OECD countries in the last oil crisis.  The world oil industry will continue to operate essentially at capacity with permanent major price volatility. Reality

4 Mexico Canada Norway & UK United States Forecast Actual China NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Million Barrels Per Day (Excluding Eastern Europe)

3 Arabian Light Price (Right Scale) Million Barrels Per Day $/Barrel Production (Left Scale) WORLD CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION Actual Forecast

Million Barrels Per Day WORLD OIL USE BY SECTOR Transportation Industrial & Power Residential & Commercial 51% 10% 39% 9

Rotary Table Tongs Draw works Rotary Chain Slips The fundamentals of rotary drilling are the same as 100 years ago.

Shedding Light on Saudi Arabia’s Oil 5 super giant oilfields made up 90% of oil output. 3 giant oilfields made up 8%. These oilfields are between 40 and 60 years old. All are reaching point of decline. Half of “proven reserves” are “questionable.” Remaining oil is harder to produce.

Billions of barrels of oil Source: Oil & Gas Journal Global Crude Reserves

Projected Oil Sands Production Millions of barrels per day Source:CAPP, RIWG, Alberta Chamber of Resources 5 million +

Reserves: (2) Oil Natural Gas Coal Oil Demand 2025 (1) % of World North AmericaMiddle EastEmerging Asia (1)EIA/IEA Outlook 2005, Table A.4 (2)BP Statistical Review & World Energy, June 2005

The Real Discovery Trend Past discovery according to ExxonMobil

Denver World Oil Conference The Peak Oil Context PETRIE PARKMAN & Co. Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman & CEO Petrie Parkman & Co. November 11, 2005