1 Training Manual on the Assessment and Dissemination of MDG Indicators (GUIDE TO THE ASSESSMENT AND DISSEMINATION OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS INDICATORS) 1 1 Paper presented at the 2007 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS STATISTICS (ICMDGS), EDSA Shangrila Hotel, Philippines,October 1-2, 2007 Lisa Grace S. Bersales, Ph.D. Professor of Statistics and Dean University of the Philippines School of Statistics

2 Outline of Presentation Background Objectives of the Manual Target Participants Pre-requisites Teaching Methods Modules

3 Background In February 2006, the University of the Philippines Statistical Center Research Foundation Inc.(UPSCRFI),the research foundation of the School of Statistics of the UP School of Statistics, started the project of writing a training manual on the MDGs for the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB)

4 Background This was under the NSCB UNDP-assisted project entitled “Statistical Capacity Building for Upgrading Statistical Capacities of the MDG Data Sources and Stakeholders to Generate, Validate and Update MDG Indicators at the National and Local Levels – Phase 1”,

5 Background The authors were Dr. Lisa Grace S. Bersales, Dr. Erniel B. Barrios, and Prof. Josefina V. Almeda of the UP School of Statistics The training manual is entitled A Guide to the Assessment and Dissemination of the Millennium Development Goals Indicators Its pilot draft was finished in October 2006 It is scheduled for pilot testing in the regions

6 Objectives of the Manual To strengthen the capacity of data source agencies in the regular monitoring, maintenance, reporting and dissemination of the MDG Indicators; To provide illustrations on how stakeholders could use MDG indicators in the formulation of policies and determination of interventions in support of meeting the MDGs; and, To assist in the efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in improving statistics it produces for monitoring the achievement of the MDGs.

7 Target Participants Technical staff from data source agencies responsible for the data inputs to the MDG indicators (NSCB, NSO, BSP, BAS, CHED, DepEd, DSWD, DOH,etc) Planning officers of agencies responsible for developing programs to achieve the MDGs (NEDA, planning staff of line agencies and local government units)

8 Prerequisites for the Training The modules are ordered such that the previous module is a prerequisite to the next. For Module 1, the prerequisite is knowledge of Excel and an editor such as WORD.

9 Teaching Methods Lectures/Discussions Case studies Computer hands-on sessions Group workshops and presentations

10 Modules of the Training Manual Module NumberModuleObjective Module 1 Introduction to the Millennium Development Goals and their Indicators To present the MDGs and the MDG indicators- their measurement, data requirements, data sources and their topics related to computing for them. Module 2 Effective Ways of Analyzing and Presenting the MDG Indicators To discuss and practice appropriate statistical tools of effectively presenting the indicators. Module 3 Maintenance and Updating the MDG Metadata To discuss the importance and the procedures for maintaining and updating the metadata for the MDG Indicators. Module 4 MDG Indicators for Policy Analysis and Interventions To provide illustrations of the use of MDG Indicators for policy formulation and determination of interventions to achieve the MDGs. Module 5 Dissemination and Advocacy To discuss the importance of proper dissemination and forms of dissemination for advocacy of use of the MDG Indicators.

11 Topics MODULE 1 : Introduction to the Millennium Development Goals and their Indicators 1.1 Overview of The Millennium Development Goals 1.2 The MDG Indicators 1.3 Metadata on the MDG Indicators 1.4 Latest Millennium Development Goals Indicators of the Philippines

12 GOAL 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger TARGETS UN INDICATORS PHILIPPINE INDICATORS YEARS FOR WHICH DATA ARE AVAILABLE SOURCE 1. Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day. 1.a. Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day b. Poverty headcount ratio(% of population below the poverty line) 1.Poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth of poverty) 2.Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 1.Proportion of population below the national poverty line. 2.Poverty gap ratio (incidence x depth of poverty) 3.Share of poorest quintile in national consumption 1991, 1994, 1997,2000 and , 1994,1997 and 2000,2002, 2003 (computed using FIES results) NSCB NSO 2. Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. 1.Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age 2.Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption 1.Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age 2.Proportion of households with per capita energy less than 100% adequacy 1990, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1998,2001 and and 2003 FNRI Example of a Table Presenting the MDGs in Section 1.2

13 Proportion of Population Below the National Poverty Line Definition. The Proportion of population below the national poverty line. Goal Addressed. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (GOAL 1). Target Addressed. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than a dollar a day (TARGET 1). Baseline for the Philippines: 45.3% in 1991 Target for the Philippines: 22.7% in 2015 Rationale: “The indicator allows for comparing and aggregating progress across countries in reducing the number or people living under extreme poverty and for monitoring trends at the global level.” Data Collection and Source: NSCB Periodicity of Measurement: every three years( 1991, 1994, 1997,2000 and 2003 ) Example of Presenting Metadata in Section 1.3

14 Goal 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER PROPORTION OF POPULATION BELOW NATIONAL POVERTY LINE Year Proportion (%) Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) 1991 and 1994-Based on old poverty methodology which uses region- base menus, special rice, regional prices and changing FE/TBE ratio. Data are disaggregated by region Based on newly approved provincial poverty methodology which uses region-base menus, provincial prices, ordinary rice and changing FE/TBE ratio. Data are disaggregated by province. Example of Latest MDG indicator in Section 1.4

15 TOPICS MODULE 2 : Effective Ways Of Analyzing and Presenting the MDG Indicators 2.1 Presentation of Data 2.2 Measures of Central Tendency 2.3 Measures of Location 2.4 Measures of Dispersion 2.5 Measures of Skewness 2.6 Rates, Ratios, Proportions, & Percentages 2.7 DevInfo

16 TOPICS Module 3:Maintenance and Updating of MDG Metadata 3.1 Monitoring and Evaluation of MDG Indicators 3.2 Data Gaps in MDG Indicators 3.3 Data Quality of MDG Indicators 3.4 Documentation of Changes in Metadata

17 Monitoring and Evaluation of MDG Indicators Purpose of M&E of MDG Indicators Framework of M&E MDG Indicators Case Study Data Gaps in MDG Indicators Why data gaps occur? Imputation Procedures Linear Interpolation Linear Prediction Calibration Time Series Extrapolation

18 Documentation of Changes in Metadata Changes in Definition and Concepts Consistency of Time Series Adjustment and Comparability of Indicator Case Study Changes in Reference Period Length of Reference Period Comparability of Data Across Time Indexing Deflating Data Case Study

19 Documentation of Changes in Metadata Changes in Data Collection Consequences of Changes in Sampling Designs Consequences of Changes in Sample Size Consequences of Changes in Frequency of Data Collection Case Study Institutional Arrangements on Updating Indicators

20 TOPICS Module 4:MDG Indicators for Policy Analysis and Interventions 4.1 Indicators and Measurement Issue 4.2 Analysis and Interpreting Results 4.3 Linking MDS and The National Development Plans

21 Indicators and Measurement Issues What is an Indicator Qualities of Good Indicator Measurement and Assessment of Indicators Analyzing and Interpreting Results Some Theoretical Insights on Policy Analysis Steps in Policy Analysis Framework Development Strategies in Intervention Planning Financing the MDG Case Studies

22 Analysis and Interpreting Results What is Policy Analysis Steps in Policy Analysis Framework Development Strategies in Intervention Planning Financing the MDG Case Studies

23 Topics MODULE 5:Dissemination and Advocacy 5.1 Forms of Dissemination of Updates on Performance towards the MDGs 5.2 Writing the Communication 5.3 The Progress Report 5.4 The Executive Summary 5.5 The Policy Brief 5.6 Powerpoint Presentations 5.7 The Roles of The Philippine Statistical System and its Partners in Updating, Monitoring, and in Advocacy of the MDGs

24 Appendices Appendix 1 Design for a Training on Millennium Development Goals Indicators Appendix 2 NSCB Assessment of MDG Indicators Appendix 3 Examples of the different forms of dissemination for advocacy Appendix 4 Exercises for MODULE 2

25 Thank you very much!