Populations

OVERVIEW Population: all the individuals of one species in a given area HOW POPULATIONS GROW –Exponential vs. logistic –r VS. K –Carrying Capacity Human Population Statistics –Predictions Impact on Conservation

Fig. 9.4, p. 201 Time (t) Population size (N) Exponential Growth Biotic Potential – Pop. Grows as fast as physiology allows. Unlimited resources No pollution build up Ideal conditions Short lived period Often quickly die out, colonize new areas R selected species

Fig. 9.4, p. 201 Time (t) Population size (N) K Logistic Growth Slower initial growth Long –term stable pop. At carrying capacity (K). K is size of pop. Area can sustain. Growth slowed by limiting factors

Fig. 8-3, p. 163 Environmental Resistance Time (t) Population size (N) Carrying capacity (K) Exponential Growth Biotic Potential

Fig. 8-4, p. 164 Carrying capacity Year Number of sheep (millions) Overshoot

Fig. 8-11, p. 169 Percentage surviving (log scale) Age Early loss Late loss Constant loss

Reproductive Patterns r-selected species tend to be opportunists while K-selected species tend to be competitors. Figure 8-10

Fig. 8-6, p. 165 Number of reindeer Population overshoots carrying capacity Carrying capacity Year Population Crashes

Fig. 8-7, p. 166 Population size (thousands) Year Lynx Hare

Fig. 9.9, p ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Number of moose Year Number of wolves Moose population Wolf population

Fig. 1.1, p Billions of people ? ? ? million years Hunting and gathering Black Death–the Plague Time Industrial revolution Agricultural revolution B.C.A.D.

Fig. 9-3, p. 174 Average crude death rate Average crude birth rate World 21 9 All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China)

Fig. 11.8, p. 242 Births per woman < Data not available

Fig. 9-3, p Europe North America United States Oceania Asia Africa Latin and Central America

Fig. 9-4, p billion China 1.3 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 300 million 349 million Indonesia225 million 264 million Brazil 187 million 229 million Pakistan166 million 229 million Bangladesh 147 million 190 million Russia 142 million 130 million 135 million Nigeria 199 million Japan 121 million 128 million 2006

GNP per capita, 1998 Low income (Under $1,000) Middle income ($1,000–$10,000) High income (Above $10,000) Fig. 1.5, p. 9

Fig. 9-5, p. 175 Replacement Level Year Births per woman Baby boom (1946–64)

Fig. 9-7, p years Homicides per 100,000 people Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Living in suburbs Homes with electricity Homes with flush toilets High school graduates Married women working outside the home Life expectancy $15 $3 52% 10% 99% 2% 98% 10% 83% 15% 81% % 77 years

Fig. 9-8, p Year Number of legal immigrants (thousands) New laws restrict Immigration 1914 Great Depression

Fig. 9-9, p. 179 Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada Stable Spain Portugal Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy Prereproductive ages 0–14 Reproductive ages 15– 44 Postreproductive ages 45–85+ FemaleMale Female

Fig. 9-11, p. 180 Females Males Age FemalesMales Age Females Males Age Females Males Age

Fig. 9-15, p. 186 Total fertility rate Percentage of world population Population Population (2050) (estimated) Illiteracy (% of adults) Population under age 15 (%) Population growth rate (%) 17% 20% 1.1 billion 1.3 billion 1.6 billion India China GDP PPP per capita Percentage living below $2 per day Life expectancy 47% 17% 36% 20% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4 billion $5,890 $3, years 62 years children per women (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 2.9 children per women (down from 5.3 in 1970)

Fig. 9-16, p. 188 Biologically simplified Mostly nonrenewable fossil fuel energy High Often lost or wasted Used, destroyed, or degraded to support human activities Property Complexity Energy source Waste production Nutrients Net primary productivity Natural Systems Biologically diverse Renewable solar energy Little, if any Recycled Shared among many species Human- Dominated Systems

Fig. 9-17, p. 188 Reduction of biodiversity Increasing use of the earth's net primary productivity Increasing genetic resistance of pest species and disease-causing bacteria Elimination of many natural predators Deliberate or accidental introduction of potentially harmful species into communities Using some renewable resources faster than they can be replenished Interfering with the earth's chemical cycling and energy flow processes Relying mostly on polluting fossil fuels Natural Capital Degradation Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs

Human Population growth For most of our history a logistic curve. Currently exponential growth –Not uniform around the globe –Developing nations growing fastest What has made the change possible? –Drop in death rate. Birth rate has fallen, not increased. How long will this be sustainable? Future predictions for growth?

Fig , p. 246 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births < Data not available

Fig. 11.3, p. 240 <1% 1-1.9% 2-2.9% 3+% Data not available Annual world population growth

Fig. 11.4, p Growth rate (percent) Year

Fig. 11.5, p. 241 China India USA Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Russia Bangladesh Japan Nigeria billion 1.4 billion 1 billion 1.4 billion 276 million 338 million 212 million 273 million 170 million 221 million 151 million 227 million 145 million 137 million 128 million 177 million 127 million 121 million 123 million 205 million

Fig. 11.6, p. 241 Asia Europe Africa Latin America North America Oceania 3.7 billion 4.7 billion 728 million 714 million 800 million 1.3 billion 518 million 703 million 306 million 374 million 31 million 39 million

Fig , p Year Births per woman Total fertility rates in USA Baby Boom ( ) Below replacement rate- immigration keeps population growing

Fig a, p. 244 Extremely Effective Total abstinence Sterilization Hormonal implant (Norplant) 100% 99.6% 98% Highly Effective IUD with slow-release hormones IUD plus spermicide Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) IUD Condom (good brand) plus spermicide Oral contraceptive 98% 97% 95% 93% Birth Control Methods:

Effective Cervical cap Condom (good brand) Diaphragm plus spermicide Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide Spermicide (foam) 89% 86% 84% 83% 82% Moderately Effective Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) Withdrawl Condom (cheap brand) Unreliable Douche Chance (no method) 75% 74% 70% 40% 10% Fig b, p. 244

Fig a, p. 245 Developed Countries Rate per 1,000 people Year Rate of natural increase Crude birth rate Crude death rate Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate = crude death rate

Fig b, p. 245 Developing Countries Rate per 1,000 people Crude birth rate Rate of natural increase Crude death rate Year

Fig , p Years Deaths under age 1 per 1,000 live births

Demographic transition Death rate ( infant mortality) drops first. Birth rate remains constant Population increase quickly Economy transitions from agriculture to urban. Larger families cost more, birth rate drops. Population. Now much larger slows its growth rate. Influence of other (cultural, religious) pressures Women often lack freedom to determine family size, education employment opportunities

Fig. 9-14, p. 183 Birth rate Death rate Total population Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Growth rate over time Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,00 per year) Relative population size Low Increasing Very highDecreasing Zero Negative High

Fig. 9-6, p. 175 Demographic transition Depression End of World War II Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom Births per thousand population Year

Some predications Will technology save us? The soft landing – no population collapse Will we have a crash after we have exceeded our carrying capacity? No one knows

Fig. 11.9, p. 242 High Medium Low High 10.7 Medium 8.9 Low 7.3 Year Population (billion)

Fig , p Year Age Distribution (%) Under age 15 Age 60 or overAge 80 or over

Fig a, p. 251 State of the World Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution

Fig a, p. 254 State of the World Year Industrial output Food Resources Population Pollution

Influence on environment More land fro agriculture, resource exploitation More land for cities, roadways, suburbs Less fish in the sea for the food chain Deforestation Oil, gas won’t last forever Pollution builds up Better “green” technologies? Heightened awareness, concern? Better understanding of ecosystems?

Human disturbance Tropic of Capricorn Equator Predominantly natural Partially disturbed Human dominated Antarctic Circle Tropic of Cancer Arctic Circle Arctic Circle Fig. 1.4, p. 8

World total Developing countries Developed countries Population (billions) Year Fig. 1.6, p. 9

United States The Netherlands India Country Per Captia Ecological Footprint (Hectares of land per person) Fig. 1.10a, p. 11