WP4: Finalisation of D12 and related work What has the completed work told us? What additional analyses could/should be undertaken of D12 results? What papers can be produced based on D12 work?

Principles of verification Predictor dataset : NCEP reanalysis Predictand datasets: “ FIC dataset ” and regional sets Study regions Stations within regions Core indices Verification period: (for compatibility with ERA15-driven regional models) Training period: & Statistics: RMSE, SPEARMAN-RANK-CORR for each station/index

Study Regions UK: 6 stations Iberia: 16 stations Greece: 8 stations Italy: 7 stations Alps: 10 stations Germany: 10 stations The ‘FIC dataset’

Partners/regions IberiaGreeceAlpsGermanyUKItaly UEAxxxxxx KCLxx ARPA-SMRxx ADGBx AUTHxx USTUTT-IWS & FTSxx ETHxx FICxxxxxx DMIxxxxxx UNIBEx CNRSxx

Core indices

Questions Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region, core index and season? Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and summer? Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions? Is there any systematic difference between –Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal circulation indices –Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the seasonal core indices are calculated from these. Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage?

UK – 90 th percentile rainday amounts

Iberia – 90 th percentile rainday amounts

Greece – 90 th percentile rainday amounts

Greece – Tmax 90 th percentile

Answers to questions Is the performance consistent among stations for a given method, region, core index and season? Large scatter between stations Is there any difference in performance of the methods between winter and summer? Generally better performance in winter in areas affected by Atlantic weather systems Is there any systematic difference in performance between regions? Generally better performance in the regions affected by the westerlies Is there any systematic difference between –Direct method: The seasonal core indices are downscaled using seasonal circulation indices –Indirect method: Daily precipitation/temperature values are generated and the seasonal core indices are calculated from these. No obvious systematic difference between direct and indirect methods Can a ’best’ method be selected at this stage? Requires further work

Reasons? Inhomogeneity of station data Too short verification and calibration period Missing predictors Stochasticity

Additional analyses Closer inspection to find ’bad’ stations More detailed regional analysis

Papers No common core paper from D12 - but may be later from D16 Regional papers