Beyond recession?: sustainable urban development Tim Dixon: OISD, Oxford Brookes University

Integrated sustainable urban development An integrated plan for sustainable urban development comprises a system of interlinked actions which seeks to bring about a lasting improvement in the economic, physical, social and environmental conditions of a city or an area within the city (URBACT, 2010)

Interacting Forces The two defining challenges of the 21 st century are overcoming poverty and avoiding dangerous climate change. If we fail on one of them we fail on the other. (Nicholas Stern) Economy EnergyEnvironment

Recovery Matrix (Sato, 2010) Economy (firms and labour market) Society (People)Place/Environment Short-term a. Credit b. Recession Filling the gap in credit for firms (e.g. Lyon – sale and leaseback of land) Bringing forward public investment and expenditure (eg. Spanish Local Authorities) Short term working arrangements (Germany, Duisberg) Subsidising existing jobs and sectors Creating temporary jobs and training (Intermediate Labour Markets (UK), Work Integration Coops (Germany), Type B Coops (Italy) Debt advice and support. Tax and rate cuts Minimum income support Advice and support for housing, heating, transport, basic services. Integration policies. Building resilience and insulation from recession. Public-public financial instruments Take advantage of lower land and property prices Protect/bring forward key regeneration projects Protect basic services Delay, cut back non essentials Environmental Pilots Long- term (Positioning the city in the face of long term global shifts) Examples: Transition Cities, Slow Cities, Mayors Covenant, WWF One Planet Living. Creating the conditions and investing in sustainable activities (e.g. green, health, care, education, knowledge, culture) Training in the skills required for sustainable activities. Support for innovation in these activities More equality Shifts in consumption and saving patterns Shifts in use of time and work-life balance Sustainable building, transport, energy, water and waste Low Carbon Economy and Green Jobs Short Term Long Term

BRIC-led economic recovery? Economic growth in BRIC countries Brazil Structural reforms (fiscal & institutional) Prospect of 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics Booming residential sector Increasing middle class Infrastructure is poor Source: PwC, 2009 Cumulative GDP Growth (megacities)

City-level carbon emissions and energy consumption Cities account for about 80% of carbon emissions globally. Consumption and not population growth is important (Satthethwaite) Middle and upper-income households are key

Futures studies – the role of the city (key drivers) Demographics Economic Governance Environmental Societal (lifestyle) Technological

City Scale Focus – why? Existing powers of municipal and city governments give greater potential traction Concentration means better technological potential More rapid diffusion Spin-off benefits (source, Lankao, 2008)

Towards Regenerative Development Time Integrated Sustainability Business as Usual Today (Source: adapted from Ministry of Environment, NZ Government) Eco-Efficiency 5+ yrs Regenerative Development: 40+ yrs Paradigm Shift The City as a Metabolism

World Bank Eco 2 Programme City-based approach Expanded platform for collaborative design and decision-making One-system approach Investment framework that values sustainability and resilience Ecological modernization issues??

Low Carbon Economy A future vision for low carbon infrastructure Need for private investment and balance between public/private debt Stronger market signals for carbon emissions UK Core Cities

Public Debt (% of GDP) UK=68.5% Brazil=46.8% Source: CIA

Financing Issues: an Investment Gap? Cities the problem and the solution? –shift expenditure Need to develop innovative financing models to retrofit cities: e.g. value capture; PPPs; green bonds/funds More local power and leadership capacity at city-level Appropriate governance structures Improved skills and technology deployment BAU=$350 trillion Additional $22 trillion needed in green investment (Booz / WWF, 2010)

Key Issues-to 2050? How will property markets in Brazilian cities evolve? Real estate investment Nature of housing markets and demand: future growth and development? Issue of brownfields Ecological modernisation/sustainable urban development – does this model really fit Brazilian cities? How can climate change adaptation and mitigation be financed? What are the outcomes for cities – governance, institutions and impact on people? Learning from Brazilian cities? Clean Development Mechanism Climate Action Plan (Sao Paulo) Others: grants/taxes?