A Spatial Study of Religion and Urbanization in China Shuming Bao China Data Center University of Michigan & Xiaodong Fu School of Economics Renmin University

Buddhism Taoism Islam Christian Spatial Distribution and Trends of Religious Sites in China

Topics I. Introduction II. Methodology III. Data IV. Empirical Analysis V. Summary and Discussion

Urban Expansion in China by Night Light Shanghai 1990 Shanghai 2000 Shanghai 2008 Nanchang 2000Nanchang 2005 Nanchang 2008

The Trends of Urban-Rural Population in China

Religion and Urbanization  Literature: Urbanization may have negative impact on religious development  Test: Where are mostly dynamic changes in religious sites located: urban and rural regions?

II. Methodology  Classification of urban, rural and transitional areas  Structural analysis  Test of spatial autocorrelation  Space-Time Analysis

III. Data Religious Sites: - Original data source from 2004 Economic Census - Atlas of Religions in China (UMCDC): - Buddhism - Taoism - Christianity - Muslim - others Population Census: - Original data source from population Census (1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000) - China Population Census Data with GIS Maps (province, city, county and townships) Economic Census: - Original data source from business Census (1995, 2001, 2004) - China Economic Census Data with GIS Maps (province, city, county and ZIP) - Digital Atlas by Industries of China Others: - Socioeconomic Statistics, Geography, Environment, ……

Defining Urban, Rural and Transitional Areas  Urban Area: Non-agricultural population > 50%  Transition Area: Non-agricultural population 20%  Rural Area: Non-agricultural population < 50% and Migration < 20%

IV. Empirical Analysis: Religious Development and Urbanization % in Rural % in Urban

Buddhism and Urbanization Start-ups Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas Accumulation Urban Rural

Christianity and Urbanization Start-ups Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas Accumulation Urban Rural

Islam and Urbanization Start-ups Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas Accumulation Urban Rural

Taoism and Urbanization Start-ups Percentage by urban, rural and transition areas Accumulation Transition

Spatial Autocorrelation of Church Distribution by Provinces

The Christianity Development in Western China Inner Mongolia Ningxia Xinjiang Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural

The Christianity Development in Northeastern China Liaoning Heilongjiang Jilin Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural

The Christianity Development in Eastern China Zhejiang Shandong Jiangsu Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural

The Christianity Development in Central China Hubei Jiangxi Hunan Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural

The Christianity Development in Southern China Guangdong Guangxi Yunnan Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural Transition Urban Rural

Summary and Discussions Growth of religion in urban, rural and transition areas:  All religions: keep increasing in all areas with mostly dynamic growth in rural area  Buddhism: Faster growth in urban area  Christianity: Faster growth in rural area  Islam: Balanced growth in urban and rural areas and not much changes in transition area  Taoism: Balanced growth in all areas The growth of Christianity in different regions:  Eastern: Balanced growth in all areas with majority in rural areas  Southern: Faster growth in rural area  Central: Faster growth in rural area with initial majority in urban area  Northeastern: Faster growth in rural area  Western: Majority are in urban area with faster growth in transition area Discussion:  Data are limited to registered religious sites.  Data are based on the cross-sectional data, which don’t include those disappeared religious sites.  Results may be sensitive to how the urban and rural areas are defined.

Spatial Analysis with the Spatial Explorer of Religion

Reports on Religious Distribution and Urbanization

Religious Sites by Urban/Rural/Transitional Area & Province

Religious Sites by Jiedao/Town/Township & Province

Spatial Explorer of Religion Spatial Explorer of Religion PySAL StatGeo Modeling Religious Sites:: - Buddhism - Taoism - Christianity - Muslim - others Population Census Data Economic Census Data Historical Data Reference Data Changes in religious structure