Support to the Policy Making Process Knowledge Maps, Ontologies and multi- criteria decision making Arantza Aldea

Compendium and multi-criteria decision techniques for policy design A. Aldea, R. Bañares Alcántara Students: P. Barton, S. Skrzypczak, R. Egrot. M. Singh, J. Hunt

3 The policy process Setting the agenda Problem definition Policy design Policy implementation Policy enforcement Policy evaluation Formulation (Rationale) Regulation (pharmaceutical processes)

4 Rationale for policy decisions facilitating communication Development of a system to support the formulation and update of policies by facilitating communication between policy makers through the explicit computer representation of policy intent, policy content and policy rationale. Singh, M., Bañares-Alcántara, R., Skrzypczak, S., Aldea, A. A System to Support Policy Development for the Sustainable Production of Biofuels International Conference on Food Security and Environmental Change, April R. Egrot The analysis, selection and implementation within Compendium of suitable multi- criteria decision techniques for use in the field of policy design

5 We propose a three-stage cyclical model: objectives of the policy 1.Representation of the policys intent, i.e. the objectives of the policy evaluated against a set of weighted criteria 2.The different policy alternatives are evaluated against a set of weighted criteria representing the objectives. record the justifications for the decisions 3.The policy maker can record the justifications for the decisions using argumentation structures in the form of IBIS networks. Compendium extension Rationale for policy decisions

6 Compendium We are using an extended version of Compendium to integrate IBIS networks with policy objectives. Compendium is a hypermedia, knowledge mapping, software tool developed by the Open University (see It is customisable, open source, Java-based, and interoperable with other software via XML. extensions We have developed the following extensions to Compendium: Options vs. Criteria matrix Options vs. Criteria matrix Global parameters sensitivity analysis Global parameters and sensitivity analysis Several multi-criteria decision techniques Several multi-criteria decision techniques automatic report generation automatic report generation. Compendium

7 Compendium GUI

8 Overall decision process for biofuels in Zambia

9 IBIS network: what crop for biofuels?

Option Versus Criteria Matrix A table to show the different alternatives (options) against the criteria which will be used to evaluate every alternative First approach developed by S. Skrzypczak Table that shows position nodes associated with an issue node Criteria defined for the user to evaluate the options The user will enter scores for each cell and weights for each criteria Weighted Sum Method (WSM) employed to give a value to each option The option scored highest will be the recommended to the user

11 Options vs. Criteria matrix (simplified)

12 Criteria created by user

13 Declaration of Global Parameters

14 Sensitivity analysis Does a change in the value of a Global parameter affect previous decisions?

15 Decision rationale The information used to reach decisions is kept so that decisions can be revisited and updated in view of changes to values, evaluation criteria, technical advancements or regulations: problem discussed, alternatives considered, arguments for or against each of them, criteria, processes that an organisation applies to make decisions (e.g. their business logic) and assumptions.

16 Another MDC methods have been analysed and incorporated to the options vs.. criteria matrix The Weighted Sum Method (WSM) The Weighted Product Model (WPM) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

17 Electre family methods (Electre I and Electre II) A defining feature of this method, and of the Electre family in general, is the use of what are termed concordance and discordance indices. These are designed to measure, respectively, the levels of support for the notion that a given alternative outperforms (or outranks) another and the notion that it does not. That is, the concordance, C(a,b), of alternative a outranking alternative b is a number representing the weight of evidence for the assertion that a outperforms b. Similarly, D(a,b) represents the weight of evidence for the assertion that a does not outrank b. More details in Rob Egrots MSc dissertation Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

New MCD methods incorporated in Compendium

Electre dialog panel

Next Steps Integrate all the MCD methods in a complete Compendium project Add a report generator facility for all the MCD methods. More extend validation of our MCD methods Add a tool to extract useful information from the knowledge map Our extended Compendium tool can also be applied to other areas in particular to keep track of the decisions and rationale behind safety issues. Ontologies and information extraction

Conclusions Compendium and its use for policy development and design Open Question Can our Compendium tool help the safety technology group?