The Risks of Participating in the AMPGS Coal Plant: February 14, 2008 David Schlissel.

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Presentation transcript:

The Risks of Participating in the AMPGS Coal Plant: February 14, 2008 David Schlissel

2 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Most Significant Uncertainties and Risks Potential for federal restrictions/regulations of greenhouse gas emissions. State actions that can affect need for and economics of proposed coal-fired plants. Further increases in the Project’s capital cost.

3 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Federal Regulation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions is a Matter of When, Not If

4 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Synapse and R.W. Beck CO 2 Price Forecasts

5 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Synapse and R.W. Beck CO 2 Price Forecasts Compared to Other Recent Forecasts

6 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Annual Cost of Power from AMPGS Project under Synapse and R.W. Beck CO 2 Price Forecasts ($/MWh)

7 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Annual Cost of Power from AMPGS Project under Synapse and R.W. Beck CO 2 Price Forecasts (Millions of Dollars)

8 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Costs of New Power Plants Have Skyrocketed It is generally accepted that power plant capital costs have increased dramatically in the past 2-3 years. For example, Duke Energy originally estimated that its two unit Cliffside coal project would cost $2 billion. Now Duke estimates that the cost of a single unit will be $2 billion. Westar Energy announced in Dec that it was deferring site selection for new 600 MW coal plant due to significant increases in estimated costs of 20 to 40 percent in just 18 months. Westar CEO said: “When equipment and construction cost estimates grow by $200 million to $400 million in 18, it’s necessary to proceed with caution.” Cost of now cancelled Taylor Energy Center in Florida increased by 25 percent, $400 million, in just 17 months between Nov and March 2007.

9 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. The Estimated Cost of Building the AMPGS Project Has Increased Dramatically Since 2005

10 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Factors Which Have Led to Rising Power Plant Construction Costs Cost increases are due, in large part, to significant increase in worldwide demand for power plants. Demand for plants is straining the supply. Demand from China and India. Despite recent cancellations there is a strong U.S. demand for new power plants and pollution control projects for older plants. Limited capacity of EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) firms and manufacturers. Fewer bidders for work, higher prices, earlier payment schedules and longer delivery times.

11 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Rising Power Plant Cost Escalation Significant cost increases for critical power plant commodities, e.g., steel, copper, cement, fabricated alloy piping.

12 | ©2006 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Alternatives to AMPGS Project Combined Heat and Power. Energy Efficiency. Renewable Resources Short-term or Long-Term Capacity and Energy Purchases from Existing Gas-Fired Power Plants