XIII International Human Rights Colloquium São Paulo, 17 October 2013 The "New" World Order and International Human Rights Bruno Stagno Ugarte Security Council Report securitycouncilreport.org

Ambiguity Ambiguity of the Term "New" World Order: Chronology or later Personality- Unipolar, Bipolar, Multipolar, G-Zero Only: Brazil, India, South Africa Or: Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, others

Non-Linearity Non-Linearity of the Rise and Demise: Parallel Lives and Destinies Lessons from Japan in the G4 Non-linearity is even more likely in the near future as we continue to witness the rise of the first generation of emerging powers to do so within the constraints imposed by an imperfect yet nonetheless present human rights system.

Conspiracy Conspiracy of the present rules: Current world order not a conspiracy, but the result of conflict and consent. Beyond the inequities in the system, never in history have "emerging powers" enjoyed as many avenues and possibilities for peaceful ascent.

Relativity Relativity- China vs. the Others Jim O'Neill (Goldman Sachs) 2001 BRICS August 23, 2013: "I would just leave the C." Not persuaded that all the putative "emerging powers" will emerge, most will miss expectations and prove unable to continue to ride on the tailwind of China. A return to the old normal (Angus Madison).

Diversity Diversity of "Emerging Powers": Geographic Hemispheric Irony of some emerging powers understating their differences with China while accentuating differences with the West when culturally and politically more akin to the West

Polarity Advocacy for positions that are in reaction to the West: Voting coincidence with USA Voting coincidence with China in Human Rights Council Russia % Russia % China % South Africa % South Africa % Brazil % India % India % Brazil %

Unreliability Unreliability: changing narratives and votes UN Security Council "strongest configuration ever": Libya Resolutions 1970 (2011) and 1973 (2011) Syria Draft Resolution S/2011/612 As emerging powers seek to cast themselves as more evenhanded than the major powers in the West, they will likely make continued calls for moral and political equivalency between at times incomparable parties, stalemating preventive or corrective action by the international community.

Selectivity Selectivity: quick to blame the West, but silent when others do likewise: Ethiopia or Kenya in Somalia; Rwanda or Uganda in the DRC; Pakistan in Afghanistan. As global power is more evenly distributed, selectivity will probably be on the rise, as the remaining and emerging powers carve out their own areas of influence and tolerance. (Brazil-Cuba; India-Sri Lanka; South Africa-Zimbabwe)

Immaturity Immaturity: A.J.P Taylor- "Powers will be Powers". The pretense by some "emerging powers" that they will not behave as the strong have done since Thucydides suggests how unprepared they are to be powers.