The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) Clare Baker David Simpson Helen Wood CB - Welcome to the presentation – thanks for coming, we hope you will find the event useful and informative. – Introductions to the team (Longitudinal Studies Team in YPD) Clare Baker (statistician) is the TL, responsible for the team (and obviously LSYPE) as well as being project manager for the Youth Cohort Study David Simpson (statistician) responsible for analysis of LSYPE and YCS and involved in the more technical side with the missing data strategy Michael Greer (statistician) responsible for analysing LSYPE and YCS and for the online data management tool i-LSYPE Helen Wood (researcher) – project manager for the LSYPE and manages the research framework where we undertake the programme of research using LSYPE and YCS Remi Dewitte from Gide who has been responsible for developing iLSYPE.

Agenda for the morning An overview of LSYPE (45 minutes to 1 hour) Comfort Break (10 minutes) An introduction to iLSYPE (45 minutes to 1 hour) A chance to use iLSYPE (30 minutes) End (1pm at the latest) CB (internal only) Here is a brief overview of the morning We will be having comfort breaks between each session Helen, David and myself will be running the first session Michael and Remi will be running the second and third sessions. The morning is designed so you can drop out after the first session if you wish – although we would obviously encourage as many of you as possible to stay for the iLSYPE demonstration.

Presentation Overview What is LSYPE? Who takes part Survey content Data collection Linked data Benefits Uses of LSYPE Data Enhancement and Access to LSYPE data Challenges and the future of LSYPE CB First we will explain to you what exactly LSYPE, have a look at what information we collect through LSYPE, the uses of LSYPE, then we’ll talk about data enhancement, access and the future of LSYPE. If you have any questions we are happy to take them throughout – although there will be time at the end of each session for questions. I should also mention that there are LSYPE handouts available at the back of the room, and we will send a copy of the slides to everyone here. I will now hand over to Helen Wood who will take you through the background of LSYPE.

What is LSYPE? Our unique selling point! A unique and invaluable dataset for Government analysis and policy making Initially funded by HM Treasury and intended as a cross-government project – currently managed by DCSF Research aims – factors affecting educational progress transitions following compulsory education, effects of background and behaviours, attitudes and experiences Not just restricted to education HW LSYPE- The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England LSYPE is a unique and invaluable dataset for Government (and wider) policy research because of the breadth and depth of the information it contains It originally came out of the Comprehensive Spending Review in 2002 and was part of a drive to be more strategic in our research, producing fewer small scale and single purpose studies which tend to be produced in isolation. LSYPE would (and does) provide an overarching perspective and is an excellent evidence base for providing evidence for policy- examples of this will follow from david. HMT provided ring fenced funding for its first three years. Set up with the idea of being a x-government study so a consortium of departments would run it. However, this hasn’t happened so DFES and now DCSF have led on it, with support from DIUS (now BIS) and DWP. It the single biggest investment in research for our Dept and in many ways is ground breaking. The study started in 2005 and was designed to look at a range of ‘contemporary social changes’ including child poverty, social mobility and youth crime as well as, but not exclusively education and attainment. It was more about understanding the lives of the young people ‘in the round’ rather than their schooling- and it is this rich data that makes it so valuable to us as analysts …why longitudinal… Our unique selling point!

What is LSYPE? – Why Longitudinal? A longitudinal design provides more insight into causal processes than cross-sectional studies. LSYPE can investigate: whether aspirations had been lower from a young age for certain groups and track these over time factors associated with changing aspirations such as changed family circumstances, parental attitudes, exam results etc. Investigate the degree to which intentions are converted into applications and acceptances for different groups. HW So why have we opted for a longitudinal approach? As alluded to earlier, we could do lots of different cross-sectional studies which would be able to tell us what is happening at specific point in time, but to understand when and (more NB for policy) why it is happening we’d have to rely on recall of the respondents which can be unreliable- and more often than not those studies are fairly narrow and can’t provide us with a bigger picture of what is happening around those individuals. But with longitudinal research we can detect changes that happen over time, we are better able to say when they are happening and get closer to why. As we also know what else is going on at the time (for instance if we introduce policies or bigger social changes such as the economic downturn etc) we can better understand reasons as to WHY these things are happening. It’s not the perfect answer to policy prayers but it’s probably as close as we’ll get With longitudinal data like LSYPE where we follow the same individuals over the timeframe, we can also get a much better picture of the routes different people take to get to their outcomes which are of interest- so we don’t just look at general trends, lumping people together but we can understand more about sub-sections of the population- so we’re better able to target our messages. For example, some on-going work for the Dept is looking at bullying and the characteristics of young people who report being bullied and it is hoped that this work will tell us not only how bullying changes over time but also in what ways for what kinds of young people. We ask lots of questions about aspirations both of the YP and the parents in the study and we can use them to learn how they may change over time, to see if different kinds of young people have different aspirations and if these do change over time, what events may have also happened in that time to produce a change (e.g. wanting to going to uni but then not getting the grades because of illness- or parents losing jobs so being unable to go to uni) We can understand a bit more about what the YP tell us in terms of what they say they want to do and then IF they do actually do that- so of those who say they want to do an apprenticeship- who actually goes onto apply for one, and then, who actually gets onto them. …Details on waves….

What is LSYPE? Longitudinal in design - the same young people interviewed every year from age 13/14 (2004) Each annual LSYPE survey is referred to as a ‘Wave’. So far: HW As the name suggests it is longitudinal in design and we interview the same young people every year. Interviews started when the YP were aged 13/14 (or in year 9 at school). So far we have followed them up a further five times. They are currently aged 19/20- lots are just starting their second year in HE, others are on apprenticeships, some have gone into full-time work and others are doing others things- basically we’ve put lots of effort into following up everyone, not just those in education, so we can understand young people, the routes they take and the outcomes they have- all of which will feed into our Department’s work. Each survey of the LSYPE is referred to as a wave. Table shows how each wave corresponds to the age of the young people, the school year the respondents were in, the year fieldwork was conducted in, and the . You can see, the first four waves are freely available on the Data Archive. Wave 5 data is currently being cleaned and made a little more user-friendly and should be available sometime early next year, although for in-house purposes data can be obtained via the team. We’re hoping for wave 6 data (which is currently in the field now) to be available in late 2010. …So who takes part in the survey… W1 Age 13/14 Year 9 2004 Data released to the public W2 Age 14/15 Year 10 2005 W3 Age 15/16 Year 11 2006 W4 Age 16/17 Year 12 2007 W5 Age 17/18 Year 13 2008 Available on request (publication 2010) W6 Age 18/19 Year 14 2009 Fieldwork nearly completed

Who takes part in LSYPE? Wave 1 (13/14) Young people and both parents ≈ 15,500 responding households (74%) Wave 2 (14/15) ≈ 13,500 responding households (86%) Wave 3 (15/16) ≈ 12,500 responding households (92%) Wave 4 (16/17) Young people and one parent ≈ 11,500 responding households (92%) Wave 5 (17/18) Young people only ≈ 10,500 responses in Wave 5 (89%) HW It’s a study primarily of young people, but in order to fully understand them and their situation, we have interviewed their parents too- this enables us to get a full picture of the young person and the household in which they are growing up The table shows who we have interviewed and when as well as how many responses we we got- you can see that for such a large survey we have received incredibly high response rates which is really encouraging, showing respondents are engaged with the study-so we’re obviously doing something right. We have followed (and are following) a lot of young people across England. It is a big study. In the first wave of LSYPE around 15,500 young people in England were interviewed as part of the survey. We are just finishing the sixth wave of interviews and to do this, we’ve contacted over 10,000 young people. We use the same sample of young people (it’s not refreshed like FACS or other large scale surveys but we have had a boost at wave 4…. ….sampling..

Sampling HW (not for internal)

How do we collect LSYPE data? Waves 1 – 4: All interviews took place face-to-face. Waves 5 and 6 – A range of modes was introduced: on-line survey – first chance (around half) telephone survey – second chance (around one third) face to face survey – last chance (the remainder) Participation is voluntary – respondents can drop out of the study at any time. As a thank-you for taking part, respondents receive a High Street Voucher. HW Told you about who is involved, when, and why so now onto how the data is collected We started off initially using face to face interviews, with both parents and the young people. Interviews took place in respondents homes and we’re very well received but as very expensive and time consuming so in from wave five we introduced online and telephone interviews for the young people (remember we’d stopped interviewing parents by then). Although this was risky (we didn’t know how people would respond and if they could be put off by the change) it worked very well. Around half of the respondents completed the survey on line - many are very IT literate, it’s more convenient as they can do it in their own time as well as being much cheaper for us We offer all those who have email addresses the opportunity to do it online. For those unable to do the survey online or who fail to do so within a set time , we give them a call to be interviewed over the phone (or stirred into completing online). Around a third of the sample tend to be interviewed over the phone. And then if we can’t contact them by phone and they haven’t done it on line, we revert to the traditional knocking on doors- which accounts for the rest of the sample. At all points participation in the study is voluntary and respondents may withdraw if they want to- but as you can see from response rates, very few do. And as a bit of a thank-you and incentive to take part we do give them a small high street voucher. At wave one, getting the voucher was conditional on completing the interview but since then they have been conditional and sent out just as the fieldwork period begins. …survey content…

Survey Content “Main” Parent “Second” Parent Young Person Employment Histories – including income Relationship histories (household composition) Demographics (ethnicity, gender, religion, disability etc) Educational experiences/attainment- including bullying and truancy Aspirations Out of school activities- both positive & risky Health, disability & SEN Caring responsibilities Relationship with parents Attitudes & experiences re: local community Relationships, sexuality etc. Aspirations for the young person Attitudes to schooling and education Contact with services Family Cohesion HW As said before, the LSYPE is not just about education, we’ve touched on many areas of young people’s lives in the interviews so far, we know about many aspects of their lives- and on different levels. From a parental perspective we know about their working life, their household income levels, their own education, details on who they live with as well as the usual demographics- but we also ask attitudinal questions about what they expect and want for their children, how closely they are involved in the YP’s education, how well they get on with their child At the level of the young person, there’s lots of information available about the experiences of school, what they liked, didn’t like, what they wanted to do when they left, the courses they wanted to pursue as well as the kinds of activities (both positive and risky) that they did outside of school. We have asked about if they have any caring responsibilities and as they have grown older, about having children of their own. As they have grown we can also ask them more sensitive questions, in wave 5 we had a unit on Community Cohesion, asking about how they felt about their local area, how they felt about living in Britain today and more recently we’ve asked about sexuality, sexual activity and any pregnancies as well as outcomes of these. NB to say though that we haven’t just got data on the areas we actually ask respondents about but with data linking we can actually go beyond this, adding other data sources in making it very rich- so hand over to David to take you through this and give you a taster of the types of work we can do… Over to David…

Data Linking LSYPE data can be linked to a number of other data sources to supplement our data: National Pupil Database (NPD) – exam results, school level information, geographic markers. Individualised Learner Record (ILR) – Post-16 education, FE courses Respondents were told we would link the data and asked if they wanted to opt out. Few did. Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS) – DWP benefit and employment programme data as well as employment records from HMRC. Respondents were asked if we could link their data DS

Data Linking Youth Cohort Study (YCS) – A long running cohort study from ages 16-19, Cohort 1 started in 1985. Cohort 13 in progress From Wave 4 onwards (2007) LSYPE sample members were the same age as YCS Cohort 13. LSYPE and YCS were harmonised to create an extra large sample. DS From wave 4 onwards (2007) LSYPE sample members were the same age as YCS Cohort 13. LSYPE and YCS were harmonised to create an extra large sample.

Benefits Unique - the only study to have followed this cohort of young people in this much detail. Outcomes- cross sectional surveys show what is happening. Longitudinal surveys can show the consequences- useful for policy development. Large sample size and low attrition - reduced potential for bias. Highly engaged respondents- excellent rapport with researchers- allows us to ask more challenging questions. Linked administrative data - of use to many government departments and policies. Long shelf life – A strategic, multi-purpose survey. Doesn’t focus purely on specific policies. DS

How have LSYPE data been used? REMOVE How have LSYPE data been used? By the Department: Annual National Statistics publications. See: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000795/index.shtml http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000850/index.shtml Internal unpublished analyses: DS The second half of this slide contains references to internal unpublished work. Get in touch with the Longitudinal Studies Team if you would like to see any of the analysis. Also numerous ad-hoc requests, contributions to evidence packs, PQs. The list goes on. Just don’t ask me to recite it……….. RPA/NEETs: Well qualified NEETs Barriers to re-engagement EMA eligibility/take-up Jobs without training Behavioural problems: Contact with Educational Welfare, Social Services and the Police Teenage Pregnancy Strategy Refreshment: Characteristics of 17 year-old parents

How have LSYPE data been used? REMOVE How have LSYPE data been used? LSYPE research framework agreement and research programme: - Fast and responsive tender process for research - Framework contractors build expertise with LSYPE So Far: Published Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Examination Performance of Ethnic Minority pupils In the pipeline….. Risky Behaviours & social Activities Disengagement from Education Bullying Community Cohesion Youth Crime Alcohol Use IAG DS Research Framework set up in 2008- will run to 2011- aim is to produce policy relevant research which we are unable to do in house due to resource restraints- projects tend to be more in depth and strategic than those conducted internally Reports published: Drivers and barriers- commissioned by DCSF and undertaken by IFS (and will be discussed as the UKDA event), published in 2009- more details contact Mike Strand reports- 2 reports published in 2007 and 2008 to investigate the experiences of education for EM pupils- our team in the contact In the pipeline: Risky behaviours- to examine the nature and extent of risky behaviours and positive activities among secondary school children. Publishing later this year- Jude Belsham is the contact Disengagement- to further our understanding of when and how some young people disengage from school- clearly feeding in the RPA. Using the longitudinal data we will be able to construct a far more accurate definition of disengagement and gain a much better understanding of some of the causal processes behind disengagement and the implications on later outcomes. –Publishing later this year- Vikki McAuley is the contact Bullying- to help determine the factors associated with being bullied to help identify the proportions of children in some groups (particularly BME, SEND and by religion) who report being bullied in the first three waves of LSYPE. –contact is Jo Hutchinson in SARD, publishing soon Community Cohesion- utilising the community cohesion module for wave five, the project will explore levels of community cohesion amongst young people, identifying any variations according to subgroups (e.g. ethnicity, faith, social class, gender)- contact is Helen Youth crime and antisocial behaviour- this project will look at which young people are involved in certain types of anti-social behaviour and crime (as recorded in LSYPE), how this changes over time and how this is associated with outcomes post-16- contact is Jodie Smith in YPA Alcohol use- will aim to improve the improve the evidence base on issues around young people’s alcohol consumption looking at who drinks alcohol, how frequently compared to those who do not as well as looking at their outcomes. –contact is John Doherty IAG- will look at the different sources of information, advice and guidance (including Connexions) which young people have used and their links to subsequent outcomes. – contact is Jude Belsham

How have LSYPE data been used? By the Department: Annual National Statistics publications. See: http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000795/index.shtml http://www.dcsf.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SBU/b000850/index.shtml Internal unpublished analyses Published analyses from a research framework DS Research Framework set up in 2008- will run to 2011- aim is to produce policy relevant research which we are unable to do in house due to resource restraints- projects tend to be more in depth and strategic than those conducted internally Reports published: Drivers and barriers- commissioned by DCSF and undertaken by IFS (and will be discussed as the UKDA event), published in 2009- more details contact Mike Strand reports- 2 reports published in 2007 and 2008 to investigate the experiences of education for EM pupils- our team in the contact In the pipeline: Risky behaviours- to examine the nature and extent of risky behaviours and positive activities among secondary school children. Publishing later this year- Jude Belsham is the contact Disengagement- to further our understanding of when and how some young people disengage from school- clearly feeding in the RPA. Using the longitudinal data we will be able to construct a far more accurate definition of disengagement and gain a much better understanding of some of the causal processes behind disengagement and the implications on later outcomes. –Publishing later this year- Vikki McAuley is the contact Bullying- to help determine the factors associated with being bullied to help identify the proportions of children in some groups (particularly BME, SEND and by religion) who report being bullied in the first three waves of LSYPE. –contact is Jo Hutchinson in SARD, publishing soon Community Cohesion- utilising the community cohesion module for wave five, the project will explore levels of community cohesion amongst young people, identifying any variations according to subgroups (e.g. ethnicity, faith, social class, gender)- contact is Helen Youth crime and antisocial behaviour- this project will look at which young people are involved in certain types of anti-social behaviour and crime (as recorded in LSYPE), how this changes over time and how this is associated with outcomes post-16- contact is Jodie Smith in YPA Alcohol use- will aim to improve the improve the evidence base on issues around young people’s alcohol consumption looking at who drinks alcohol, how frequently compared to those who do not as well as looking at their outcomes. –contact is John Doherty IAG- will look at the different sources of information, advice and guidance (including Connexions) which young people have used and their links to subsequent outcomes. – contact is Jude Belsham Published Drivers and Barriers to Educational Success Examination Performance of Ethnic Minority pupils In the pipeline….. Risky Behaviours & social Activities Disengagement from Education Bullying Community Cohesion Youth Crime Alcohol Use IAG

How have LSYPE data been used? By other government departments: DEFRA/DCSF- rurality, attainment & post-16 participation BIS-attitudes & intentions towards Higher Education http://www.employment-studies.co.uk/pubs/report.php?id=bis_rp_003 Cabinet Office- attitudes & aspirations of those in deprived communities http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/social_exclusion_task_force/short_studies/aspirations.aspx By academic researchers: Links between income & GCSEs Smoking, alcohol & personality traits Roles of attitudes & beliefs on child outcomes DS In addition LSYPE has been used by a number of OGD’s: Defra work- two projects to look at effects of rurality on a) attainment at 16 and b) post-16 participation. Reports will be published jointly between Defra and DCSF later this year BIS work- published in September 09 (hot off the press). Examines attitudes and intentions towards Higher Education, preferences for subjects/study modes and other aspects. Some of these factors are examined by socio-economic and ethnic group. Cabinet Office- Aspirations and attainment in deprived communities’ is a joint project between the Social Exclusion Task Force, DCSF and CLG. Using some LSYPE data, it explores the potential to raise the attainment of young people in deprived communities, by raising aspirations and changing attitudes within these communities. Examples of academic work include: Note that the smoking one is Gareth’s presentation at the UKDA event. If people want to know more, let us know and we’ll put people in touch

Example Findings Number of years students reported being bullied (from Y9 to Y11) and their subsequent destinations post-16 DS

Example Findings Percentage of young people Not in Education Employment or Training at 16, and at 17 by attainment in Year 11. DS

Example Findings Agreement with “Britain today is a place where people are usually treated fairly no matter what background they come from” DS

Example Findings How often do you speak to the following about what you might do after Year 11? DS

Example Findings Estimated Income based EMA eligibility by activity (aged 16)

Example Findings Age of Respondent’s mother by whether or not respondent has their own child by the age of 17

Data Enhancement Waves 1-4 have been enhanced to aid users. Benefits include: Derived Variables Edited, Labelled and re-ordered data Detailed documentation Weights to compensate for household non-response CB A project currently underway to compensate for missing data: To reduce biases due to non-response from individual household members. To reduce bias from missing data in Household income, Socio-Economic Class and Parental Education.

How can I access LSYPE data? LSYPE Datasets are available for users to download via the UK Data Archive. So far Waves 1- 4 have been deposited. See: http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/ Wave 5 is available for users via an application to the Longitudinal Studies team and upon completion of a confidentiality agreement. iLSYPE (more on this later) CB

Challenges Making best use of longitudinal data Resources Lack of engagement across Government Risks associated with changing to mixed-mode data collection Managing expectations/demands CB Take the first two points together here. LSYPE is resource intensive – funding and staff. The real benefit of longitudinal data is seen after a few years or ‘waves’ have been conducted and one can start to observe the transitions and outcomes for the sample. This isn’t really typical of the way the Department works; colleagues don’t see immediate outputs and value for money. This means we reach the point where we are at now where we run events such as this to advertise the wealth of data we have available and how this can be of use to colleagues, both within and outside the Department. We have experienced a lack of engagement from OGD’s. As Helen mentioned LSYPE was set up with the intention for it to be funded across Government, but this didn’t work out. The team have put a lot of work into engaging OGD’s (examples include DOH, DCMS) and highlighting the potential uses of LSYPE for them. The lesson learned here is that to maintain involvement there needs to be a continuing dialogue. Another challenge is ensuring that our survey methods are relevant and are the best way of collecting the data from the group of young people we are speaking to and to maximise response. Each year we review how successful the previous wave has been. The other side of this of course is in terms of compiling the dataset (as three different modes – face-to-face, telephone and web) could be collected by three different systems CAPI, CATI and CAWI. The challenge for our contractors is to compile the data, clean the data and ensure it all fits together so that it becomes one useable dataset. Finally we have to manage expectation and demand. We engage policy colleagues early in the process of designing the LSYPE Questionnaire (around 9 months before we actually interview the young people) and we often ask them to think ahead and think strategically to enable us to ask the right questions of the respondents at the right time. We also have to balance this with demand for space in the questionnaire (we limit the questionnaire length to 25 minutes). The challenge is to get the right balance of questions and keep our policy colleagues involved throughout the process so they don’t loose sight of the data and the process they originally fed into.

The future of LSYPE Current cohort aged 18/19 and have just been interviewed for 6th time About to start development for wave 7 interviews to take place 2010 Working closely with ESRC and OGDs for the possibility for ESRC to take over management of LSYPE after wave 7 (end 2010) Development work for a second cohort (LSYPE2) - subject to Cross-Government funding CB Wave 6 – we’ll get the fist cut of data towards the end of this year and aim to publish another Statistical Bulletin in Spring next year Wave 7 – development of questionnaire for interviews which will take place in 2010. Contact me or another member of the team if you would like to get involved. ESRC – this is subject to funding and input from OGD’s – which is uncertain in the current economic climate and also as we head towards a general election. Finally we are commissioning work to review the first LSYPE Cohort (what went well and what didn’t go so well) with the view to starting a second LSYPE cohort to coincide with Raising the Participation Age.

Any Questions? The Longitudinal Studies Team: Clare Baker clare.baker@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk Helen Wood helen.wood@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk David Simpson david.simpson@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk Michael Greer michael.greer@dcsf.gsi.gov.uk Respondents’ website: www.nextstepsstudy.org.uk CB Thank you for listening are there any questions? If not break for ten minutes and we’ll see you for the presentation of iLSYPE.