ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Economic data analysis and findings Zoe Oldfield

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Dimensions of economic status Food Housing Durables Income Wealth Consumption Employment income Benefit income Asset income Pensions/annuities Private transfers Pensions Housing Financial assets Physical assets

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Financial information in ELSA Detailed components of income and wealth collected Information collected using techniques designed to minimise non response Income (except earnings) and wealth collected at the financial unit level

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing The derived financial data Income and asset data – Benefit unit level – Includes imputed data (flagged) Private and State Pension wealth data – calculations based on: – Self-reported plan details – Imputed earnings history In the longer term we will be able to refine calculations based on – NI records (c.75% give permission to link) – Earnings/employment/pension histories

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Summary income variables (eq)totincTotal income (eq)empincEmployment income (eq)seincSelf employment income (eq)ppincPrivate Pension income (eq)spincState Pension income (eq)benincState Benefit income (eq)assincAsset income (eq)othincOther income yq5(10)Equivalised income quintile(decile)

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Summary wealth variables grossfwGross financial wealth netfwNet financial wealth grosstotnhwGross total non-housing wealth nettotnhwNet total non-housing wealth netpwNet physical wealth ghwealthGross housing wealth nhwealthNet housing wealth nettotwNet total wealth debtFinancial debt tnhwq5(10)Net total non housing wealth quintile(decile) nfwq5(10)Net financial wealth quintile(decile) totwq5(10)Net total wealth quntile(decile)

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Pension wealth variables Pension wealth variables Assuming retirement in 2002 Private pension wealth (pripenw1_2002) State pension wealth (statepenw1_2002) Assuming retirement at SPA Private pension wealth (pripenw1_SPA) State pension wealth (statepenw1_SPA) Baseline assumptions + Variations in: Discount rate Contracting out rates

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Some key findings The distribution of retirement resources for those aged 50-SPA Labour market participation Future expectations

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing The distribution of pension wealth, 50-SPA Private pension wealth State pension wealth

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing The distribution of pension wealth, 50-SPA

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing The distribution of non-pension wealth

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Correlation between pension and non- pension wealth

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Now I have some questions about how likely you think various events might be. When I ask a question I'd like you to give me a number from 0 to 100, where 0 means that you think there is absolutely no chance an event will happen, and 100 means that you think the event is absolutely certain to happen. … What are the chances that you will live to age 75? Measuring subjective expectations in ELSA

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Expected longevity and wealth Aged < 66Aged Aged chances of living to... age 75age 80 age 85

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Actual and self-reported chances of living to 75

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Labour market participation Findings so far Labour market non-participation is U-shaped in wealth

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Male inactivity rates by age and wealth quintile

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Expectations of being in work at age 60 (65), by wealth decile

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Findings so far Labour market non-participation is U-shaped in wealth Current health correlated with expectations of return to work for those currently inactive

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Expectations of working, by age and health: Inactive individuals MenWomen Average chances of working at …

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Findings so far Labour market non-participation is U-shaped in wealth Current health correlated with expectations of return to work for those currently inactive No real relation between current health and expectations remaining in work for those currently working

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Expectations of working, by age and health: Active individuals MenWomen Average chances of working at …

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Final thoughts Future data releases will add further value: – longitudinal dimension – linkages to administrative data More analysis coming out all the time

ELSA English Longitudinal Study of Ageing Other research in progress More on distribution and adequacy of saving for retirement – Working paper (forthcoming) – Report series Cognitive ability, numeracy and asset holding (in particular pension knowledge) More on expectations of longevity