PHEV Task Force December 15, 2006

2 Legislative direction:  HF 3718 Sec 3. Subd. 4. Charge. (a) The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle task force shall identify barriers to the adoption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by state agencies, small and large private fleets, and Minnesota drivers at-large and develop strategies to be implemented over one-, three-, and five-year time frames to overcome those barriers.  Included in the analysis should be possible financial incentives to encourage Ford Motor Company to produce plug-in hybrid, flexible-fueled vehicles at its St. Paul plant.

3 Other Considerations…  What are the larger objectives? –Improved air quality? –Reducing imported oil? –Developing renewable energy resources –Shifting energy economics to local or regional sources?  PHEV’s have potential to be part of the response  Need to keep objectives in sight, not limit responses

4 Identify PHEV barriers:  Owner / operator economics and utility –cost(s) of energy (fuel and electricity) –battery cost / life / safety (technology) –energy tax structures (fuel   electricity) –electrical generating capacity and sources –transmission infrastructures –charging site infrastructures –vehicle cost and depreciation –vehicle utility range, speeds passenger payload capacity, comfort performance

5 US Energy Consumption by Source 2005 Wind: 0.15% Solar: 0.06% ?

6 Minnesota Gasoline Prices 11% / year?

7 EIA Energy Price Forecast 1.35% / year ? Source: EIA

8 Efficiency Chain Example

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10 Why Hybrids?

11 Light Duty Hybrids

12 Toyota’s analysis…

13 Mileage?

14 Effect of mileage on fuel cost per mile Fuel Cost to Drive 15,000 miles Electricity + battery replacement (one example)

15 Markets and Product availability  Markets and Product availability –Off-road / utility State Parks golf courses industrial complexes Universities –On-road neighborhood (35 mph and less) non-freeway (35-55 mph?) full capability (55-70 mph?) –Private individuals commuting general use

16 Markets and Product availability  Markets and Product availability –Commercial uses Messenger Delivery Taxi’s –Government fleets State Post Office Police, etc. –Rental cars (e.g. from MSP)  Manufacturers  who has what plans for PHEV's? –And what can we do to encourage them?

17 Market Building Strategies? Traditional Carrots & Sticks!  Tax structure modifications –road use taxes on fuel or electricity –vehicle size / weight tax structures –license fees –sales taxes  Subsidies & Incentives (long list)  Preferential use considerations –freeway commuter lanes –parking  Education  Collaboration

18 Market Building Strategies?  Education –Impacts of energy use choices –Understanding alternatives –Science & Technology education K-12 through University

19 Market Building Strategies?  Collaboration to build market size – Common product specifications are important to building an attractive market – Coalitions with other states – Cooperative efforts with other major metros – Establish consistent incentives  Broadens the market  Builds a coalition of stakeholders

20 “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra ( )

21 “The best way to predict the future is to invent it. “ Alan Kay (Alan Kay is one of the inventors of the Smalltalk programming language and one of the fathers of the idea of Object Oriented Programming. He is the conceiver of the laptop computer and the architect of the modern windowing GUI.)

22 “The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet.“ William Gibson ( )

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