1 NCEP for NCEPers “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” December 5, 2005 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

2 Outline Define NOAA/NWS/Forecast Process Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services Strategic Plan Annual Operating Plan Budget/GPRA Measures Computing summary 2005/2006 Milestones Future Considerations

3 The NOAA Prediction Process

4

5 NWS Organization

6 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Process Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Air Quality and Environmental Agencies, …

7 Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services

8 History of NCEP Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed Full funding from US Weather Bureau –AD, DD,FD,ExFD 1974 – Move to WWB 1979 – CAC created 1984 – additions –Computer Operations from NOAA –NHC –NSSFC 1995 – NCEP created –NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC, AWC, SPC (move to Norman in ’97), TPC –SEC becomes NCEP’s 9 th center (remains an OAR lab) 2004 – SEC enters NWS

9 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Space Environment Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

10 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

11 TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products Air Quality

12 NCEP Partners NOAA Mission Goal Teams and Line Offices NWS Forecast Offices Academia International Organizations Military Other Federal Agencies Private Meteorologists Research Laboratories State and Local Emergency Managers Wild Fire Agencies (Federal/State) Technology Vendors Media

13 Planning Process Centered Around NOAA’s PPBES NOAA Strategic Plan NWS Strategic Plan NCEP Strategic Plan NCEP Annual Operating Plan NCEP Technical Operating Plan Executive Summaries Performance Plans

14 NCEP’s Strategies and Objectives to Meet NOAA’s Service, Delivery and Improvement Goals 83% EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC Produce and Deliver the Best Products and Services Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances Exercise Global Leadership Focus the NCEP Organizational Culture Effectively Manage NCEP Resources

15 NOAA Strategic Plan Goals NCEP Contribution 7% CPC 10% AWC OPC 83% EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC NCEP Contributes to 3 of NOAA’s Strategic Plan Goals and 8 Separate Programs

16 NCEP Technical Operating Plans Mapping Resources to Goals GPRA NWS GOALS NCEP GOALS KEY DELIVERABLES MILESTONES BUDGET ALLOCATION ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES NTOP ELEMENTS NOAA GOALS

17 GPRA Scores Performance Measure Actual 2002 Actual 2003 Goal/Actual 2004 Goal/Actual 2005 Goal 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours) 124 nm107 nm129 nm/94 nm128 nm/NA111km Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score” /.29.27/ U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%) /1718/1818 NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

18 Performance Measures Goals/Objectives Milestones Resources ($$/People) NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Internal Planning Timeline Nov. Dec. Late Sept. Mid Sept Early Sept.Aug. Jan. NCO Review Dec. EMC Review NTOPS 1 st draft Final NTOP and Annual Operating Plan When Budget is Allocated Executive Summary Draft Annual Operating Plan Identify Agency Milestones Internal Coordination Corporate Board Planning Meeting

19 NCEP Budget Facts Historical Base Funding $68.2 $62.0 $54.8 $50.1 $80.1 $88.2 Weather and Climate Supercomputer Supercomputer Backup SEC Integration Rent Dropsondes/EMC Adjustments Labor ATBs

20 NCEP Budget Facts FY2005 OR&F vs. PAC $61.8M 70% $26.4M 30% Weather and Climate Supercomputer Supercomputer Backup

21 NCEP Budget Facts FY 2005 Allocations by Center ($K) CenterFTEsLaborNon-laborTotalOther NOAA LOs ReimbTOTAL OD9$1,037.1$4,697.7$5,734.8$0.0$11.0$5,745.8 NCO75$7,855.3$29,837.2$37,692.5$550.0$144.7$38,387.2 EMC47$5,543.2$2,953.8$8,497.0$7,066.4$1,281.0$16,844.4 HPC42$4,769.6$77.9$4,847.5$25.0$0.0$4,872.5 OPC25$2,665.7$80.2$2,745.9$157.5$0.0$2,903.4 CPC50$5,290.8$549.8$5,840.6$2,401.6$598.4$8,840.6 AWC54$5,928.0$726.9$6,654.9$570.0$585.7$7,810.6 SPC32$3,640.7$561.0$4,201.7$0.0 $4,201.7 TPC41$4,712.3$457.2$5,169.5$239.0$0.0$5,408.5 SEC51$5,264.4$1,523.2$6,787.6$600.0$630.7$8,018.3 TOTAL426$46,707.1$41,464.9$88,172.0$11,609.5$3,251.5$103,033.0 Other Funding Sources: $14,861K NWS Base

22 Computing Summary

23 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) $26.4M/Year Investment Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005 Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

24 RUC GFS AnlHur GFS FcstNAM Fcst NAM Anl Waves SREF GENS Climate Forecast System

25 Product Generation Performance

26 AOP Milestones

27 AOP 2005 Milestones Weather Hurricane Model resolution increase 18  9 km Global Model resolution increase 55  35 km Rapid Update Cycle resolution increase 20  13 km Global Ensemble upgrade North American Meso-Scale upgrade

28 AOP 2005 Milestones Climate Additional daily run of Climate Forecast System (from 1  2/day) Air Quality Expand Air Quality Forecast from Northeast U.S. to Eastern U.S.

29 AOP 2005 Milestones Products –Produce Day 3 – 8 experimental Graphical Forecast Chart Depicting Likelihood of Critical Fire Weather Conditions –Develop Operational Product of Ensemble Tracks Product for Tropical Cyclones –Extend UV Outlooks to 72 Hours –Issue Operational Significant Weather Medium and High Level Chart in BUFR Format

30 AOP 2005 Milestones Outreach –Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop –Conduct Three Introduction to Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Local Emergency Managers –Conduct Collaborative Spring Forecast Experiment to Evaluate WRF –Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Atlantic Coast, Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week –Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada –Provide Training for 10 Meteorologists at International Desks

31 AOP FY2006 Milestones Ocean Wave Model 10 member Ensemble Wave model – Spring (06) Great Lakes Wave Forecast – Summer (06) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) HYCOM-based, 1/12 degree North Atlantic Basin – Fall (05) Chesapeake Bay

32 AOP FY2006 Milestones Weather Global Forecast System (GFS) – Spring (06) GSI data assimilation Apply hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate model WRF – Spring (06) WRF based North America Mesoscale Run (Replaces Eta Model) GFDL Hurricane Model – Spring (06) Begin parallel runs of Hurricane WRF system Complete Implementation of 6 WRF Members into the SREF System - Winter (05)

33 AOP FY2006 Milestones Products Execute Full Implementation of Watch-by-County Implement Operational Winter Weather Desk Enhancements Implement Gridded Wave Forecasts for Coastal and Offshore Zones in Support of NDFD Issue Experimental Graphical AIRMET Develop Experimental Probababilisitc Guidance for Occurrence of Lightning for Fire Weather Forecasts Implement Experimental Week-2 Outlooks for North America including Canada, Alaska and Mexico and U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands Develop Outlooks for Monthly and Seasonal Degree-Day Totals Based on CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook

34 AOP FY2006 Milestones Outreach Organize and Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week Provide Training for 10 Visiting Scientists at International Training Desks Conduct Spring Forecast Experiment through SPC's Hazardous Weather Testbed Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Gulf Coast Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada in Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting Conduct Two Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Coastal States Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop Lead the 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic & Prediction Workshop Participate in Three Trade Shows and Two Safety Seminars in Support of Marine Outreach Program

35 Future Considerations

36 Expanding “Environmental” Services Air Quality Prediction (with the EPA) –Expanded coverage in 2005 Ocean Modeling  Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model –U.S. Ocean Commission Report –Plan submitted to NOAA Science Advisory Board Full incorporation of Space Weather Services

37 Expanding “Environmental” Services Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events –Hurricane intensity –Snowstorms –Severe Weather –Fire Weather –Floods Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina  Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System: need to improve GPRA score! –Climate Test Bed to accelerate improvements in seasonal climate prediction –Climate Forecast System, a fully coupled climate prediction model, was implemented in August, In FY05, the number of ensemble members doubled from 30 per month to 60 per month. Doubling of horizontal resolution to ~105 km is expected by ‘08 (cont.)

38 Linkages to Outside Community International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO- sponsored climate programs “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”) Consolidation of NOAA severe weather research and prediction at the OU National Weather Center in FY06 World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)

39 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800 Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Begin move to new facility September ’07 and complete by Feb ‘08

40 Background Slides

41 Global Forecast System Climate Forecast System GFDL Hurricane NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made Forecas t Aviation Hourly Forecast GLOBALGLOBAL DATADATA Ocean North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) Ocean Short-Range Ensemble Medium Range Ensemble (NAEFS) Severe Weather

42 Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Cryosphere Atmosphere Ocean Land Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

43 Long-Term Performance Gains

44 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP

45 HPC Forecasters Add Value Models provide basis for improvement Correlations Of HPC with: Eta: 0.99 GFS: 0.74 NGM: 0.85 (DOC GPRA goal)

46 Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: Hrs

47 (preliminary)

48 In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill Day 7 Day 5 Day 3

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

50 September 2005 Performance Updates Cumulative Actual ↑ Good Status:

51 September 2005 Performance Updates Cumulative Actual ↑ Good Status:

52

53 September 2005 Performance Updates Status: ↑ Good

54 September 2005 Performance Updates ↑ Good Status:

55

56 Backup Slides

57 Summary

58 Summary Strive to continue ongoing improvements Develop partnerships –JCSDA –WRF –NOAA Ocean Plan –ESMF Expand Collaborative Forecast Process: NCEP – RFC – WFO – CSWU Apply ensembles and forecaster input to probabilisitic forecast products Count (millions Daily Satellite Observation Count

59 Service Center Activities

60 WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR formatWAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR format New Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDSNew Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDS Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports filed through AWC webpageDramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports filed through AWC webpage Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of Collaborative Convective Forecast ProductsImprovement in accuracy and usefulness of Collaborative Convective Forecast Products Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented on NOAA websiteAviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented on NOAA website Massive change to WMO headers of AWC productsMassive change to WMO headers of AWC products Aviation Weather Center

61 Climate Prediction Center Initiated Climate Test Bed infrastructure –Wayne Higgins – Director CTB will accelerate the transfer of research and development into operational climate forecasts and products

62 Surface Analysis GFS 0600 UTC 03OCT2005UWPBL4.1 Surface Analysis 0657 UTC 03OCT km QuikSCAT 0740 UTC 03October2005GOES IR Satellite Image 0745UTC 03October2005 Ocean Prediction Center New automated technique developed by U of Wash using their boundary layer model to construct surface pressure analysis from Quikscat winds and available observations GFS analysisU of Wash technique

63 Storm Prediction Center Now producing experimental 3-8 day graphical fire weather outlooks A short discussion will be added to the graphic when it becomes a Public Experimental Product (with PDD & comment period) in Spring 2006.

64 Tropical Prediction Center Experimental tropical cyclone surface wind speed probability –Tropical storm winds (> 39 mph) – > 58 mph winds –Hurricane winds (>74 mph)

65 Space Environment Center SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9 –Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea” Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.