Responding to Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay Paula Jasinski NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office November 2009

Overview NOAA’s Role in Climate Change Executive Order and Responding to Climate Change in the Chesapeake Bay Region How can MACOORA assist in our efforts?

NOAA’s Role in Climate Helping society understand, plan for, and respond to climate variability and change, focusing on 3 major themes: Climate Observations and Monitoring to describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, monitoring, data stewardship; Climate Observations and Monitoring Climate Research and Modeling to understand and predict climate variability and change in timeframes ranging from weeks to a century; and Climate Research and Modeling Climate Information Services to improve the ability of society to plan and respond to climate variability and climate change. Climate Information Services

Climate Projections for the Mid-Atlantic Region Parameter Confidence in Projection Carbon dioxide (change ppmv) +20 to to +120Very high Sea level (inches) +4 to to +40High Temperature ( 0 F change) +1.8 to to +9.5High Precipitation (% change) -1 to +8+6 to +24Medium Runoff (% change) -2 to +6-4 to +27Low Temp and precipitation ranges from Hadley and CCC models for NE US Runoff prediction for Susquehanna River Basin using water balance model forced with the CCC and Hadley models

Impacts to Bay Living Resources Northward migration of species Strong sensitivity of SAV to flow and temperature Temperature-O 2 synergistic impact on fish/shellfish Over-wintering impacts positive (juvenile survival) and negative (pathogens) Complex response of trophic interactions (e.g., bloom timing) Coastal habitat inundation and increased salinity regimes And more

Human Health Increased and prolonged heat waves Advantageous for disease & vectors Water supply and contamination Septic system inundation Economics Fisheries, $1 B/year Tourism, $17 B/ year, including eco-tourism ~$1B Agriculture, $55 B/year Coastal Vulnerability, $Billions Waning Insurance Coverage Socio-Economic Impact Examples

Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System Tools like CIPS provide emergency managers and other planners the information they need to protect property and lives. Increase access to this type of planning tool and include additional climate information

E.O on Chesapeake Bay Restoration and Protection, signed May 12, 2009 The first-ever presidential directive on the Bay and the first environmental Executive Order by President Obama. Established a Federal Leadership Committee, chaired by EPA, and with senior representatives from the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Homeland Security, Interior and Transportation. Calls for strategies to address water quality, public access, landscape conservation, climate change, scientific monitoring and the protection of living resources. Watershed wide in scope.

Seven Topical 202 Reports (a) define the next generation of tools and actions to restore water quality... and describe the changes to be made to regulations, programs, and policies... (EPA) (b) target resources... including resources under the Food Security Act of 1985 as amended, the Clean Water Act, and other laws; (USDA) (c) strengthen storm water management practices at Federal facilities and on Federal lands and develop storm water best practices guidance; (EPA) (d) assess the impacts of a changing climate...and develop a strategy for adapting natural resource programs and public infrastructure (DoC and DoI) (e) expand public access to waters and open spaces... and conserve landscapes and ecosystems... (DoI and DoD) (f) strengthen scientific support for decision-making... including expanded environmental research and monitoring and observing systems; (DoC and DoI) (g) develop focused and coordinated habitat and research activities that protect and restore living resources and water quality... (DoC and DoI)

Draft Major Federal Initiatives 1. R EDUCING P OLLUTION AND R ESTORING W ATER Q UALITY - EPA 2. C HESAPEAKE F ARMS AND F ORESTS FOR THE 21 ST C ENTURY -USDA 3. C HESAPEAKE T REASURED L ANDSCAPE I NITIATIVE -DOI WITH USDA, NOAA AND D O D 4. R ESTORING H ABITATS AND S USTAINING S PECIES -NOAA AND DOI WITH EPA, USACE, D O D, AND USDA F OREST S ERVICE 5. C OORDINATE T OOLS AND S CIENCE FOR S TRATEGIC D ECISION -M AKING - DOI, NOAA WITH EPA, USACE, D O D, AND USDA 6. A DAPTING TO C LIMATE C HANGE - NOAA, DOI WITH EPA, D O D, AND USDA 7. F EDERAL L EADERSHIP BY E XAMPLE - D O D& EPA 8. P LANNING FOR L IVABLE C OMMUNITIES -US DOT &EPA 203 S TRATEGY T O BE FINALIZED BY M AY 2010

1. Coordinate climate change science and adaptation activities throughout the watershed, closely tying into existing regional federal climate programs. This effort will: Establish a framework to support a concerted watershed- wide climate effort and integrate climate change concerns with Chesapeake Bay partners. Assess vulnerability of human communities and habitats for fish and wildlife to sea-level rise and changing conditions in the watershed and develop policy, guidance, and tools to maintain resilience and sustainability of lands and habitats. Monitor and assess ecosystem responses to climate change to document the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and prepare a research needs assessment to ensure critical information gaps are identified and targeted. Adapting to Climate Change

2. Implement climate change adaptation on federal lands and within federal agencies and programs. Protect critical habitats and species through conservation and restoration, including pilot projects for adaptation response plans, targeted acquisition plans, development of incentives for conservation of critical habitats and species, and targeting federal conservation and restoration. Establish adaptation guidance for federal programs, federally managed lands and federally financed state, local, and private lands and implement actions on highly vulnerable lands.

Enough Observations? Source: Climate Change and the Chesapeake Bay; STAC 2008 Long Term Temperature Data From Two Stations

How MACOORA Can Help Help address existing uncertainties including: Are we monitoring climate change parameters in the right frequency, density, time series, and making that data available? Are we detecting changes in water quality associated with increasing temperatures, sea levels, or precipitation changes? What is the impact of sea-level rise on salinity and suspended solids? What is CO 2 variability in Bay and impacts on water chemistry ? And by taking available data to develop tools that further our understanding of climate impacts

Summary NOAA is a lead federal agency in increasing our nation’s understanding of climate change, as well as developing decision support tools to guide responses; Executive Order is a new driver in the Chesapeake Bay region and ensures that federal partners will collaborate on responding to climate change within the region; Long-term regional observations are critical to enhance our ability to understand and respond to climate changes.