A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Conservation & Management in New Mexico Carolyn Enquist George Wright Society Conference March 14, 2011 Carolyn Enquist George Wright Society Conference March 14, 2011

I.Background II. The Approach III. Closing remarks & future research

Source: C. Allen October 2002May 2004 Photos: C.D. Allen, USGS (PNAS 2005)

Map Source: Hoerling & Eischeid 2007, “Dust Bowl” forecast by Seager et al. 2007, Science. Future climate projections for the Southwest

Graphic: J. Kastner What does this mean for my system? How do I deal with the uncertainty AND complexity? Will I be able to meet my goals? WHERE DO I BEGIN??? Slide: Molly Cross, WCS The Challenge of Climate Change

Graphic: J. Kastner What are implications for conservation priorities in NM & Southwest? How do we reduce vulnerability & increase resilience? How do we prioritize action? How do we identify adaptation strategies? Slide: Molly Cross, WCS Indentified Framing Questions Questions: TNC & University of Arizona Workshop for Resource Managers (McCarthy, Enquist & Garfin, Eos 2008) How do we work together & exchange knowledge?

Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework 1.Rapid regional assessment of climate exposure (Girvetz et al. PLoS One)  Identify observed physical & ecological impacts  Analyze recent & future climate exposure 2.Determine implications for conservation priorities (Enquist et al. in review)  Evaluate exposure relative to ‘surrogates of sensitivity’  Develop ‘hypotheses of vulnerability’  Prioritize action at regional level 3.Landscape-scale conservation adaptation planning (Cross et al. in review)  Identifying adaptation options in high priority landscapes

Identify observed physical impacts 1. Identify climate-linked physical changes in the West: Increased aridity More rain than snow Declines in snowpack Changes in the timing of peak stream flows 2. Look for evidence of this across the state: Declines in snowpack (green dots) ( NRCS SNOTEL ) Earlier peak streamflows (blue) ( Stewart et al. 2004) Lines: USGS HUC-8

Population changes Mortality & recruitment Shifts in distributions # Cases: 40 Changes in phenology # Cases: 2 Invasive species Non-native & native # Cases: 5 Altered disturbance regimes Fire, erosion, etc. # Cases: 2 Identify observed ecological impacts

Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994) Evaluate recent climate exposure Composite of T & PPT departures (relative to )

Source: Enquist & Gori 2008, TNC report, Evaluate exposure + sensitivity Sensitivity Proxies: Conservation areas (from ecoregional assessments) Drought-sensitive species (across taxa) Potential vulnerability to climate change

Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994) Enquist, Girvetz & Gori, TNC report, ms in prep. winterspring summer fall annual Evaluate recent climate exposure Trend in moisture stress ( )

Evaluate future climate exposure Base data source: IPCC-AR4, downscaled to 12km by Maurer et al. (2007, Green Data Oasis),

Implications for watersheds & species of concern annual Less exposure More exposure Source: SWreGAP

Select Landscape for Adaptation Planning Goat Peak pika Catastrophic Fire (2000) Post-fire Erosion Jemez Mountains salamander Forest dieback The Jemez Mountains: Bandelier National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest, Valles Caldera National Preserve, Los Alamos National Lab

Select conservation target and Define management objective Select conservation target and Define management objective Identify intervention points and management actions Identify intervention points and management actions Evaluate actions Develop action plan Implement action plan Implement action plan Monitor and evaluate action plan efficacy Repeat for: more targets more objectives more information ID info. needs Build conceptual model Identify future climate scenarios Assess climate change impacts Assess climate change impacts Adaptation planning phase Implementation & evaluation phase Cross et al, in review Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework

Identification of adaptation strategies: –local managers & scientists worked together to break down uncertainty paralysis. Transparent process: –Assumptions and logic documented, justifying specific actions. Identified future information/research needs. Provided impetus for landscape management: –collaboration and continued dialogue via formation of informal CC learning network. Workshop outcomes

Four Corners assessment & workshops 2. Gunnison Basin 3. Four Forest Restoration Initiative (“4-FRI”) 4. Bear River Basin 1. Jemez Mountains Robles & Enquist 2011 Glick et al. 2011

Closing remarks & current research  How do we track the fingerprints of climate change impacts? V= (E + S – AC)  Vulnerability assessment needs to be a dynamic process “Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007)

Closing remarks & current research Science Adaptation Mitigation Communication

Acknowledgments Dr. Dave Gori (TNC-NM) Dr. Evan Girvetz (TNC, UW) Dr. Molly Cross (WCS) Dr. Gregg Garfin (U Arizona) Anne Bradley (TNC-NM) Patrick McCarthy (TNC-NM)