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Dan M. Kahan Yale University What does the science of science communication have to say about the climate change conflict?

1. What the source of the problem isn’t 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. Local engagement b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. Local engagement b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Lesser Risk Greater Risk Science literacy Numeracy low high perceived risk (z-score) lowhigh PIT prediction actual variance “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547. U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. Local engagement b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. Local engagement b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Abortion procedure Cultural Cognition Worldviews compulsory psychiatric treatment Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control HPV Vaccination Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive) Climate Change

Low Risk (safe) High Risk (not safe) Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes

High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime) Concealed Carry Laws

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control Environment: climate, nuclear

N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence Concealed Carry Climate Change Nuclear Power 31% 54% 22% 58% 61% 72% Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on...

Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, (2011).

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is: motivated reasoning 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. Local engagement b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Cultural Variance... Hierarchical Individualist Egalitarian Communitarian Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egalitarian Communitarian PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Hierarchical Individualist U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Low Sci lit/numeracy High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

Greater Lesser perceived risk (z-score) “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” High Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/numeracy Low Sci lit/num. Hierarc Individ POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases High Sci lit/numeracy Egal Comm High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Low Sci/lit numeracy Egal Comm U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi: /nclimate1547.

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. change places, change teams b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem : motivated reasoning

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. change places, change teams b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem : motivated reasoning

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Hierarchy Egalitarianism Individualism Climate change Cultural Cognition Worldviews Communitarianism Climate change Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Control Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Anti-pollution Condition

Geoengineering Condition

study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

Anti-pollution Condition

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

Geoengineering Condition

Risk Perception channel 1: content Two Channel Communication Strategy Information channel 2: meaning

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

z_Study dismiss 2 Dismiss Credit Study dismissiveness Hierarch Individ Egal Commun anti-pollution

more polarization less polarization Polarization z_Study dismiss 2 anti-pollution

1. What the source of the problem isn’t: public irrationality thesis (PIT) 2. What the source of the problem is 3. What “ ‘isn’t’ & ‘is’ ” imply for climate-change communication a. change places, change teams b. evidence-based communication: lab models to … field models The Science Communication Problem : motivated reasoning

Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to