1 1st ANNUAL WORKSHOP NAS-WIDE SIMULATION IN SUPPORT OF NEXTGEN: REQUIREMENTS AND CAPABILITIES Lance Sherry Center for Air Transportation Systems Research George Mason University

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 2 Workshop Background NAS-wide Simulations will play a major role in the development of NextGen Concepts-of-Operations –authorization of development funding –authorization of implementation funding

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 3 Objective of Workshop Identify potential “gaps” for NAS-wide Simulation 1.What Con-Ops should be simulated in NAS- wide Simulation 2.What “functions” are required to model a given Con-Op 3.Risks (Con-op not defined, performance measure ambiguous, algorithm to support absent)

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 4 Definition: NAS-Wide Models Simulates the performance of the NAS at the granularity of individual flights over the course of one day. Sequencing of individual flights through runways and airspace –may include gates and taxiways Inputs: –Flight Schedule for Day (itinerary, fleet assignment, seat size, engine-types), –routes and Crz FLs (optional), –Airport Arrival/Departure Capacity, Sector capacity, –Flow Management (may include delays, sequencing, and re-routing for weather) Outputs: –Delays per Flight (Delays per flight segment) –Actual Airport Arrival/Departure –Airspace Utilization, –ATCo workload, complexity, –Fuel Burn, Noise, Emissions

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 5 NextGen Con-Ops Current NAS-wide Sims (Con-Ops Supported)NextGen NASwide Sims (Concept Elements Proposed) Flight Schedule for Day (itinerary, fleet assignment, seat size, engine-types), Tail Number Tracking Dynamic Scheduling Routes and Crz FLs (optional),Re-routing 4DTs, gate to gate 4DTs during super-density surface operations Integrated Surface and Ramp Traffic Management System 4D trajectories negotiation between air and ground Continuous Descent Approaches Airport Arrival/Departure Capacity, Sector Capacity, Improved airport ability to operate in low visibility Dynamic resource and airspace management Delegated (airborne) separation Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches Flow Management (may include delays, sequencing, and re-routing for weather) Flow strategy and trajectory impact analysis SafetyImproved runway incursion prevention algorithms

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 6 Workshop Outcomes 1.NextGen Con-Ops that should appropriately be modeled in NAS-wide Simulations –e.g. Airborne Re-routing, integrated surface ops? 2.NAS-wide Simulation Functions required to support NextGen Con-ops –e.g. Airborne Re-routing Con-Ops will require “functions” to perform: route planning function, trajectory conflict detection 3.Risks –NextGen Con-Ops not defined in sufficient detail (e.g. Dynamic Airspace Allocation) –No consensus on definition of Performance Measure (e.g. Probabilistic Capacity) –Algorithms/Behaviors need to be developed and tested

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 7 Agenda State-of-the-Art and Near Term Plans 11:00NASPACJoe Post/ Kimberly Noonan 11:30System-wide Modeler Peter Kuzminski 12:00Lunch 13:00ACESRobert Windhorst 13:25FACETBanavar Sridhar 13:50LMI-NetShahab Hassan 14:15Break 14:45PNPGeorge Hunter 15:10NFMMatthew Berge 15:35RAMSKenny Martin 16:00CSE/CRRTChip Hathaway 16:30Wrap-up/ Conclusions 17:00End Welcome & Objectives 08:30Welcome & Logistics Lance Sherry 08:35Objectives of Workshop Vicki Cox Needs Assessment 08:45ATO-PJoe Post 09:15JPDO/SEADYuri Gawdiak 09:30FAA Tech CenterAl Schwartz 10:00NASA - AirspaceKarlin Toner 10:30Break Coffee/Tea available during breaks Lunch (Bistro, Food Court, Restaurant) Presentations posted on website

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 8 NextGen Con-Ops Forecast Capacity Scheduled Demand Flightplan Demand Runway/Airspace Demand Actual Capacity Flow Contingency Management (FCM) Trajectory Management (TM) Separation Management (SM) Capacity Management (CM)

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 9 NextGen Con-Ops Implementation 1.Reduced Separation Distance –Vector –4-D Planning 2.Reduced Conflict Resolution –Trajectory Forecasting –4-D Planning 3.Probabilistic Capacity and Demand Forecasting –Probabilistic Decision-Making –Collaborative Decision-making

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 10 2-Day Workshop (Mid-Feb ’09) Demand for workshop on this topic –60+ registered for this workshop Increased scope –Demand Modeling (forecasting, itin assignment, de- peaking, …) –Performance Metrics –Safety –Environment –Passengers –Monetization of Benefits

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 11 Introductions Name Affiliation

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 12 Backups

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH 13 WELCOME 1st ANNUAL WORKSHOP NAS-WIDE SIMULATION IN SUPPORT OF NEXTGEN RESEARCH 1 BUILDING ROOM 401