Welcome to the 6th Annual System Review NOAA/CPO Climate Observation Division September 2008 Silver Spring Mike Johnson photo courtesy of MeteoFrance

Welcome Data providersData providers Data usersData users PresentersPresenters Poster PresentersPoster Presenters Program ManagersProgram Managers Session ChairsSession Chairs COSCCOSC All Climate ObserversAll Climate Observers

Climate Observation Program Climate Observation ProgramMission Build and sustain a global climate observing system that will respond to the long-term observational requirements of the operational forecast centers, international research programs, and major scientific assessments Review: focus on the in situ Ocean component

Planning is now underway for OceanObs’09 (21-25 September 2009, Venice)Planning is now underway for OceanObs’09 (21-25 September 2009, Venice) The OceanObs’09 symposium will celebrate a decade of progress and make a major contribution to chart the way forward for the coming decade.The OceanObs’09 symposium will celebrate a decade of progress and make a major contribution to chart the way forward for the coming decade. Many of you played a significant role in OceanObs’99 and many will play a significant role in OceanObs’09Many of you played a significant role in OceanObs’99 and many will play a significant role in OceanObs’09 Our 6th Annual System Review will be a springboard to help begin the year-long planning leading up to the OceanObs’09 symposium next September.Our 6th Annual System Review will be a springboard to help begin the year-long planning leading up to the OceanObs’09 symposium next September Annual Review Theme: Toward the Next Decade

A Decade of Progress photo courtesy of MeteoFrance A decade has passed since the OceanObs’99 symposium played a major role in consolidating the plans for a comprehensive ocean observing system.A decade has passed since the OceanObs’99 symposium played a major role in consolidating the plans for a comprehensive ocean observing system. Now, for the first time in history, the world’s oceans are being observed routinely and systematically.Now, for the first time in history, the world’s oceans are being observed routinely and systematically Status against initial targets: 60%

countries contribute 95% in situ platforms globally 3860 platforms sponsored by NOAA 73 contributing counties

Initial Objectives How well are we doing? What else? Sea level to identify changes resulting from climate variability and change; Sea level to identify changes resulting from climate variability and change; Ocean carbon content every ten years and the air-sea exchange seasonally; Ocean carbon content every ten years and the air-sea exchange seasonally; Sea surface temperature and surface currents to identify significant patterns of climate variability; Sea surface temperature and surface currents to identify significant patterns of climate variability; Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water to identity changes in forcing function driving ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions; Sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water to identity changes in forcing function driving ocean conditions and atmospheric conditions; Ocean heat and fresh water content and transports to: (1) identify changes in the global water cycle; (2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation and monitor for indications of possible abrupt climate change; and (3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re- emerge to interact with the atmosphere; and Ocean heat and fresh water content and transports to: (1) identify changes in the global water cycle; (2) identify changes in thermohaline circulation and monitor for indications of possible abrupt climate change; and (3) identify where anomalies enter the ocean, how they move and are transformed, and where they re- emerge to interact with the atmosphere; and Sea ice extent, concentrations, and thickness to identify changes resulting from, and contributing to, climate variability and change. Sea ice extent, concentrations, and thickness to identify changes resulting from, and contributing to, climate variability and change.

Tools In situ moored and drifting buoy arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge stations, bottom-mounted and ship-based systems.In situ moored and drifting buoy arrays, profiling floats, tide gauge stations, bottom-mounted and ship-based systems. Continuous satellite missions for sea surface temperature, sea surface height, surface vector wind, ocean color, and sea ice.Continuous satellite missions for sea surface temperature, sea surface height, surface vector wind, ocean color, and sea ice. Data and assimilation subsystems, global-scale models.Data and assimilation subsystems, global-scale models. System management and product delivery.System management and product delivery.

The 2008 Annual System Review Toward the Next Decade Major Topics to guide Discussion: Progress of the observing system over the past decadeProgress of the observing system over the past decade Combined use of satellite, in situ, and modeling techniques to observe the global oceanCombined use of satellite, in situ, and modeling techniques to observe the global ocean Scientific results, uncertainties, and present capabilities of the existing observing systemScientific results, uncertainties, and present capabilities of the existing observing system Issues; gaps in the system; additional capabilities that are needed to reduce errors, improve scientific understanding, document change, and enable climate forecastingIssues; gaps in the system; additional capabilities that are needed to reduce errors, improve scientific understanding, document change, and enable climate forecasting

The 2008 Annual System Review Toward the Next Decade Organizing Drivers/Deliverables: Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of HeatRising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of Heat Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh WaterOcean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh Water Ocean BiogeochemistryOcean Biogeochemistry The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme EventsThe Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme Events User Requirements and Applications:User Requirements and Applications: –Operational Forecast Centers -- NCEP/EMC –International Research Programs -- WCRP –Major Scientific Assessments -- IPCC –Observing System Data Management -- OSMC

The 2008 Annual System Review Agenda Wednesday Session 1: OceanObs’09 -- Setting the StageSession 1: OceanObs’09 -- Setting the Stage Keynote: Ed Harrison -- OOPCKeynote: Ed Harrison -- OOPC Session 2: Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh WaterSession 2: Ocean Circulation and Global Transport of Heat and Fresh Water Chair: David Legler -- US CLIVARChair: David Legler -- US CLIVAR Session 3: BiogeochemistrySession 3: Biogeochemistry Chair: Maria Hood -- IOCCPChair: Maria Hood -- IOCCP Reception and Poster SessionReception and Poster Session

The 2008 Annual System Review Agenda Thursday Session 4: The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme EventsSession 4: The Ocean’s Influence on Variability in Seasonal Temperatures, Precipitation, Sea Ice, and Extreme Events Chair: Ed Sarachick -- UWChair: Ed Sarachick -- UW Session 5: Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of HeatSession 5: Rising Sea Level and the Ocean’s Storage of Heat Chair: Kevin Trenberth NCARChair: Kevin Trenberth NCAR Group DinnerGroup Dinner

The 2008 Annual System Review Agenda Friday Session 6: User Requirements and ApplicationsSession 6: User Requirements and Applications Chair: Ming Ji -- NCEP/OPCChair: Ming Ji -- NCEP/OPC COSC Open SessionCOSC Open Session Program Planning and BudgetProgram Planning and Budget Climate Services: The Sustained Ocean Observing System as a Foundation Climate ServiceClimate Services: The Sustained Ocean Observing System as a Foundation Climate Service DiscussionDiscussion COSC Executive SessionCOSC Executive Session Planning for in-depth project reviewsPlanning for in-depth project reviews

2008 Keynote Address OceanObs’09 Symposium Overview Ed Harrison Chair, OOPC

Backup Slides

Partnership Implement the ocean domain of GCOS-92: JCOMM is identified as the implementing agent for 21 specific actions. The Plan is in place GCOS-92: Initial GOOS GEOSS Ocean Baseline UNFCCC Priority G8 Commitment Tsunami IPY IOOS, Regional GOOS

87% Total in situ networksFebruary % 62% 81% 43% 79% 48%24% Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and JCOMM targets 100% Milestones Drifters 2005 Argo 2007

Goal Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones including international contributions Tide Gauges Real-time Stations Initial GCOS Subset Surface Drifting Buoys Tropical Moored Buoys Ships of Opportunity Argo Floats Reference Stations Arctic System Analysis Products Ocean Carbon Network Dedicated Ship Time High resolution and frequently repeated lines occupied Number of floats Number of moorings Number of buoys Days at sea (NOAA contribution) Essential Climate Variables Reported (NOAA contribution) Repeat Sections Committed, One inventory per 10 years Number of observatories, flux, and ocean transport stations Ice buoys, drifting and Moored stations Total System Goal System % Complete Index Progress Toward Global Coverage (representative milestones) Initial Targets

Surface Drifting Buoys 1250 sustained array achieved 281 Moored Buoys reporting

Tropical Moored Buoys TAO/TRITON sustained PIRATA Extensions implemented RAMA getting started

Argo Profiling Float Array 3000 floats achieved

GCOS Climate Reference Network of Tide Gauge Stations

Upper Ocean Thermal Line Sampling Well sampled lines: 18 Over sampled lines: 1 50% sampled lines: 3 Under sampled lines: 14 Lines not yet occupied: of 51 UOT XBT lines now occupied.

Volunteer Observing Ships 910 VOS reporting at least 25 weather observations per month. 215 VOSClim ships registered

Deploying and maintaining 89 Ocean Reference Stations (43 now in service) NOAA Contributions Future NSF OOI

38% complete Measuring Ocean Carbon Sources and Sinks 1. Inventory 10-year survey 2. Ships of opportunity 3. Moored buoy time series

IPY -- legacy (sustained) Arctic Observing Network Sustained Arctic Observing Network International Design to be completed in 2008

Animal Oceanographers?

Satellites: sea surface temperature sea surface temperature sea surface height sea surface height surface vector wind surface vector wind ocean color ocean color sea ice sea ice

Data Assimilating Models

Where the Work gets done SIO UH UM UW PMEL JCOMM 73 Nations ESRL CLS NCDC FSU RGOOS AOML 22 Centers of Expertise * 168 People NDBC CO-OPS BBSR In Situ System Funding: $40.8 M 54% External 42% NOAA 04% Private NCEP UAF * 34 Institutions LSA NODC OCO CSAR GFDL LDEO WHOI

FY 2000: Strategic Plan Build the system in the context of a comprehensive, multi-year climate services initiative.Build the system in the context of a comprehensive, multi-year climate services initiative. Set a timeline.Set a timeline. Define the objectives.Define the objectives. Define an “initial observing system” to accomplish the objectives. Identify annual milestones to complete the initial system over 10 years.Define an “initial observing system” to accomplish the objectives. Identify annual milestones to complete the initial system over 10 years. Emphasize that the initial system must be evolutionary.Emphasize that the initial system must be evolutionary. State the obvious: a global observing system cannot be built with existing budgets.State the obvious: a global observing system cannot be built with existing budgets. Estimate the NOAA will implement about 50%. Work with national and international partners to achieve 100%.Estimate the NOAA will implement about 50%. Work with national and international partners to achieve 100%. At the Turn of the Century …