ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation.

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Presentation transcript:

ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation

CALIFORNIA SUMMER 2001 Forecasted Peak Demand - Resource Balance (in megawatts) Temperature Probability1-in-10 Peak Demand + 7% Reserve61,125Incl. Anticipated growth Existing Resources: * Existing ISO Control Area Resources45,025 * Net Imports ISO Control Area 4,834Includes Pacific Northwest * LADWP Control Area Resources 8,198 * Imperial Irrigation District 875 * Far North - Eastern Sierras 277 Total Existing Resources59,209 Expected Outages-3,050* *Historic Average. Current outages are running 250% above average. Resources Available to Meet Load -4,966 Additional Resources with On-Line Potential for July 2001: * Approved CEC Projects 1,262 * SMUD McLellan CT Upgrade 22 * ISO Peaking Facilities 1,133 * Renewable Energy Projects 80 * Rerate/Restart of Existing Thermal and Renewable Projects 1,244 Potential Resources Existing Projects 3,741 New Generation with On-Line Potential for July 2001: Emergency Peaking Facilities 1,000 CEC Approval Pending 45 (United Golden Gate) LADWP Harbor-Valley 267 New Renewables/Distrib. Gen. ? Total New Generation Identified 1,312 TOTAL GENERATION ADDITIONS SUMMER ,053 Source: CA Energy Commission and Electricity Oversight BoardFebruary 8,2001

Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, 2001 Natural Gas Prices z U.S. prices at Henry Hub, LA increased from $2.00 to $5.00 per MMBtu y Peaked $10/MMBtu z California impacted heavier z Other regions closely match Henry Hub

Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, 2001 U.S. Gas Prices and Drilling Rigs z Low gas prices over the past decade y Lower incentive to drill z Higher prices since late 1999 have resulted in additional drilling activity Monthly U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Price vs Active Gas Drilling Rigs Jul-87 to Jan Jul-87Jul-88Jul-89Jul-90Jul-91Jul-92Jul-93Jul-94Jul-95Jul-96Jul-97Jul-98Jul-99Jul-00 Number of Rigs $ per McF Rig CountUS Wellhead Prices

Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, Forecasted California Natural Gas Demand MMcfd

California Electric Generation

Daily Peak Loads California ISO Control Area January July ,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 01/01/199902/01/199903/01/199904/01/199905/01/199906/01/199907/01/199908/01/199909/01/199910/01/199911/01/199912/01/199901/01/200002/01/200003/01/200004/01/200005/01/200006/01/200007/01/2000 MW July 12, ,574 MW June 14, ,447 MW

Statewide Peak Demand (MW) by Sector and End-Use