Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies Andreu Ulied, MCRIT ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner ESPON.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Reflections on the future Cohesion Policy DG Regional Policy European Commission.

Advertisements

Regions 2020 structure The policy context: from challenges to priorities Regions 2020 revisited Policy Lessons.

The political framework

ESPON Open Seminar June 2012 in Aalborg New European Territorial Evidence for development of Regions and Cities.

TRACC TRansport ACCessibility at Regional/Local Scale and Patterns in Europe ESPON 2013 Programme - Open Seminar European Territorial Evidence-for EU Cohesion.

Making Europe Open and Polycentric Andreu Ulied METREX Conference Leipzig, 15th May 2014.

«Making Europe Open and Polycentric» Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 A political reading of ET2050 results Andreu Ulied

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050 ESPON MC 5th December 2013 Vilnius.

Role and potential small and medium-sized urban areas Latvia’s case

1 / 21 6 th Progress Report on Social and Economic Cohesion The debate on Territorial Cohesion & Regional Creativity and Innovation.

ESPON Seminar 4-5 December 2014 in Rome Aims of the Seminar.

Jacek Szlachta Warsaw School of Economics Territorial accessibility in light of the ESPON ET2050 project REGI Committee of European Parliament Hearings.

MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1 Impact of cohesion policy on the Polish economy. Results of macroeconomic modeling of ex-post impact and forecasts for.

The role, specific situation and potentials of urban areas as nodes in a polycentric development ESPON Project Lead partner Nordregio Third interim.

ET2050 Baseline Project Specification Approach.

Territorial impacts of globalization on European Regions Van Hamme Gilles IGEAT-ULB Liege meeting November 2010.

ESPON Internal Seminar 5-6 December 2012 in Paphos Territorial Trends and Perspectives Related to the European Neighbourhood.

Workshop 1 – Smart development Insights from ET2050 project on deep-sea shipping Andreu Ulied MCRIT S.L. ESPON Open Seminar 2014 “Opportunities.

TP/ Side 1 European spatial and transport scenarios for the Baltic Region  Scenarios developed in the European Spatial Development Observatory Network.

Smart specialisation, integrated strategies and territorial cohesion: tension or synergies 27 September Brussels ESPON 2013 Programme: The territorial.

Preliminary Economic Baseline MASST Model Politecnico di Milano Version Modellers Workshop, Milano 7-8 February 2013 Territorial Scenarios and.

Territorial scenarios of the MASST3 model in the ET2050 project Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello, Andrea Caragliu and Ugo Fratesi Politecnico di Milano.

Territorial impacts of globalization on European Regions (Tiger) Van Hamme Gilles IGEAT-ULB Aalborg ESPON seminar,

European regions and cities in globalization Kathy Pain (University of Reading) Gilles Van Hamme (ULB) TIGER Project Krakow November.

Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

ESPON Open Seminar Evidence and Knowledge Needs for the Territorial Agenda 2020 and EU Cohesion Policy Godollo, Hungary June 2011 Federica Busillo.

Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 2.2 Territorial Factors for Global Competitiveness and Economic Growth ESPON Internal Seminar 2012 “Territorial Development.

ESPON Open Seminar June 2012 – Aalborg, Denmark Research, Innovation and Competitiveness SIESTA – Spatial Indicators for a ‘Europe 2020’ Territorial.

Strategic Priorities of the NWE INTERREG IVB Programme Harry Knottley, UK representative in the International Working Party Lille, 5th March 2007.

Matera Seminar ESPON The territorial impacts of EU R&D policy ECOTEC, MERIT,Cardiff University, MCRIT, Taurus, Politecnico di Milano.

ESPON Workshop at the Open Days October 2012 – Brussels Lead Partner of ESPON SIESTA: Rubén Lois Use of European territorial evidence to the EU.

1 Cohesion Policy and demography By Ronald Hall Director Directorate-General for Regional Policy 28 April 2010.

Brussels, October 15th 2008 THE BENEFITS OF NATIONAL REFORM IN SUCCESSFUL MODELS OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ANDALUSIA.

ESPOO meeting, November 2006 workshop 2: Innovation and competitiveness ESPON 2006 Programme ESPOO meeting, November 2006 workshop 2: Innovation.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION - Regional Policy 1 REGIONS 2020 (European Commission, Regional Policy – Regions 2020 ) REGIONAL VULNERABILITY TO GLOBAL CHALLENGES.

Development challenges in the Europe and CIS region(s) Ben Slay Senior economist UNDP Bureau for Europe and CIS 25 June 2009.

Indicators on Territorial Cohesion – The ESPON INTERCO project 1 Open Days | European Week of Regions and Cities Regional and Local Economies in a Changing.

ESPON INFO DAY 10 February 2011 in Bruxelles ESPON 2013 Programme: Progress and Prospects.

Firsts Insights into Preliminary Results on Demographics & Economy Where is the Baseline bringing us in 2030? ESPON MC Policy Workshop Luxembourg (March.

ET2050 European Territorial Scenarios modelled by SASI Klaus Spiekermann and Michael Wegener ESPON 2013 Programme Workshop Territorial Vision for Europe.

Europe towards 2030 : Territorial Challenges Ahead Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Scenarios and Vision project REGI Committee of European.

Figure 2.2. Evolution of GDP per capita measured in PPS in the four Cohesion countries Source: EUROSTAT data.

Regional & Urban Policy Investments for growth & jobs Promoting development and good governance in EU regions and cities 6 th Report on economic, social.

TRACC TRansport ACCessibility at Regional/Local Scale and Patterns in Europe ESPON 2013 Programme Internal Seminar Evidence-based Cohesion Policy: Territorial.

Brainstorming meeting House of Catalonia, Bruxelles 26 March 2014 Territorial Vision and Pathways 2050.

HELLENIC REPUBLIC 1 COMPETITIVENESS AND WORLD TRADE.

ET2050 Transport Trends and Scenarios Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener (S&W) ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012.

ET2050 Baseline Scenario and Trends Michael Wegener Spiekermann & Wegener (S&W) ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Brussels, 19 March 2012.

ESPON Partner States Workshop 11 March 2014, Brussels Dr Kai Böhme Spatial Foresight Potentials and Challenges for Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

ESPON UK Network Workshop TARGETING ANALYSIS ON MIGRATION AND ECONOMY Cliff Hague (UK ESPON Contact Point)

First activities of the ESPON EGTC out for tender ESPON Seminar A world without borders.

25 Years of INTERREG September 2015 in Luxembourg Building on 25 Years: Visions for your region and Europe.

Regional & Urban Policy 8 th Progress Report: The urban and regional dimension of the crisis Eric von Breska, Head of Economic Analysis Unit, DG Regional.

ESPON Open Seminar 14 June 2012, Aalborg Hy Dao, Pauline Plagnat Cantoreggi, Vanessa Rousseaux University of Geneva INTERCO Indicators of Territorial Cohesion.

Progress by the ESPON 2013 Programme in relation to the First Action Plan (Actions 4.1 and 4.2 plus) Meeting of General Directors on Territorial Cohesion.

SIESTA Experiences Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 1.3

European Union’s Regional Development Policy

// Territorial Reference Framework for Europe

Tailor made reports with the latest news from

Regional Policy developments

European needs for urban statistics Mireille Grubert

ADB’s experience with financing renewable energy projects

Workshop 2.A Territorial Vision and Scenarios 2050

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050

Scenarios and Vision for the European Territory in 2050

NUAC conference 18th June 2014 Daniel SANCHEZ-SERRA

ESPON, the European Spatial Planning Observatory Network

6th Report on economic, social and territorial cohesion, July 2014

ESPON Workshop 15 May 2013, Bruxelles Stepping into the sea.

ESPON Working Party “GIS for Statistics” EUROSTAT, 3 March 2008

Presentation transcript:

Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies Andreu Ulied, MCRIT ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth 13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle

What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation? Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050? How European Cohesion policy should be reformed? Questions to be discussed:

Politecnico Milano: modelling Baseline Scenario with MASST3 model S&W modelling Exploratory Scenarios with SASI model Reference World Scenario by MCRIT Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results...

The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

GDP Growth by MASST3

GDP (International Monetary Fond)

Relative change in GDP per capita /2030

GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies

Total Employment Change

Population Change (due to Labour Migration...)

Ageing

The Crisis Aftermath... + Global Openness?

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

Spain UK Germany UK France Foreign Investments of EU companies EUROSTAT

The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation? Source : DREWRY, 2008 America Asia 13,3 MTEU 6,7 MTEU 20 MTEU 2,2 MTEU 4,4 MTEU 13,3 MTEU 5,1 MTEU 18,4 MTEU Europe World maritime container traffic. 2008* Top 10 ports 2009

Evolution of Global Accessibility

Evolution of European Accessibility

1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe… 2) Increasing Regional Gaps… 3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities... 4) More Labour Mobility in Europe… 5) Global Reorientation of European Economies… 6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways… Key Baseline Conclusions...

1.What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? 2.Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050? 3.How European Cohesion policies could be reformed? Second Question...

Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050 Spatial orientation of the scenarios Framework conditions Baseline 1 Economic decline 2 Technical advance 3 Energy/ Climate impacts Promotion of metropolitan areas AA1A2A3 Promotion of large European cities BB1B2B3 Promotion of peripheral regions and medium cities CC1C2C3

Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

Cohesion and Structural Funds / 2050

GDP (1981=100) Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050?

Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita Crisis Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

National polycentricity EU Polycentrism

A2 C2A3 Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

Policy Evaluation 28 Sustainability indicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions) C2 B2 A2

According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004: "It is a different country now. That's thanks to European contributions" How Cohesion polices could be reformed?

+ Sensitivity to economic cycles? + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment? + Place-based focus towards endogenous development? + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment? + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas? + Investments to Neighboring Countries? How Cohesion polices may be reformed?

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information: (working documents)