Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago 6 June, 2004 NAPHSIS – Portland, OR Mark Flotow Illinois Center for Health Statistics

Why Bother?!... and I quote: - “it (multiple-race responses) only represents a small fraction of the population” - “it’s not an issue in my state; I have bigger things to worry about” - “it’s just a few places beyond the decimal point” - “ ” (i.e., don’t ask, don’t tell)

Population for Vital Rates Illinois – 2000 Census White alone = 9,125, % Black or African American alone = 1,876, % Asian alone = 423, % American Indian and Alaska Native alone = 31, % Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone = 4, % Some Other Race = 722, % [ Two or more races = 235, % ] Any two races = 223, % Any three races = 10, % Any four races = % Any five races = % Six races = %

Population for Vital Rates Illinois – 2000 Census Alone or in Percent Race Category Alone Combination Difference Difference White 9,125,471 9,322, , % Black or African American 1,876,875 1,937,671 60, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 428, ,497 57, % American Indian and Alaska Native 31,006 73,161 42, % Some Other Race 722, , , % All Races 12,184,277 12,666, , %

Population for Vital Rates Cook County – 2000 Census Alone or in Percent Race Category Alone Combination Difference Difference White 3,025,760 3,136, , % Black or African American 1,405,361 1,435,781 30, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 262, ,251 31, % American Indian and Alaska Native 15,496 33,941 18, % Some Other Race 531, ,239 88, % All Races 5,240,518 5,519, , %

Population for Vital Rates Chicago – 2000 Census Alone or in Percent Race Category Alone Combination Difference Difference White 1,215,315 1,282,320 67, % Black or African American 1,065,009 1,084,221 19, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 127, ,132 17, % American Indian and Alaska Native 10,290 20,898 10, % Some Other Race 393, ,255 59, % All Races 2,811,579 2,984, , %

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Steps in the Process Objective:Bridged-race category population estimates for Chicago by age, sex and Hispanic ethnicity for 1 April, 2000 Givens:- decennial census counts for Chicago by 63 race categories, five-year age groups, sex and Hispanic ethnicity - Modified Race (MR) file for Cook County by 31 race categories, five-year age groups, sex and Hispanic ethnicity (from the Census Bureau) - bridged-race category estimates for Cook County by 4 race categories (based on 1977 OMB Directive #15), five- year age groups, sex and Hispanic ethnicity (from NCHS) - nationally-developed, based on NHIS data, bridged-race category logistic regression algorithms (from NCHS)

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Steps in the Process Assumptions:- the bridged-race category logistic regression algorithms from NCHS for Cook County will apply equally well for Chicago - an MR file can be created for Chicago that duplicates or simulates the MR file construction for counties performed by the Census Bureau

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Steps in the Process Step 1:- create an MR file for Chicago from the 2000 decennial census counts - reduces the number of race categories from 63 to 31 by eliminating the “Some Other Race” category - this is the same starting point that NCHS and the Census Bureau used to create a bridged-race file at the county level Step 2:- calculate the single-race category probabilities for each multiple-race category - apply the Cook County values to the logistic regression equation variables - results in probabilities between 0 and 1 for each single-race category by age/sex/Hispanic

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Steps in the Process Step 3:- apply the resulting probabilities for each age/sex group to the estimated Chicago MR file - gives population estimates for each of the four race categories - mitigate any possible raking and rounding issues to an independent Chicago population total

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Results Chicago – 2000 Census to MR File Race Category 2000 CensusMR FilePercent Difference White alone 1,215,315 1,644, % Black or African American alone 1,065,009 1,077, % American Indian and Alaska Native alone 10,290 12, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 127, , % Some Other Race 393, Multiple-Race Categories 84,437 27, % All Races 2,896,016 2,896,016

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Results Chicago – MR File to Bridged-Race Estimates Race Category MR FileBridged RacePercent Difference White alone (White)1,644,143 1,655, % Black or African American alone (Black) 1,077,282 1,086, % American Indian and Alaska Native alone (NA) 12,941 15, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone (API) 134, , % Multiple-Race Categories 27, All Races 2,896,016 2,896,212

Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Chicago Results Chicago – 2000 Census to Bridged-Race Estimates Race Category 2000 CensusBridged RacePercent Difference White alone (White)1,215,315 1,655, % Black or African American alone (Black) 1,065,009 1,086, % American Indian and Alaska Native alone (NA) 10,290 15, % Asian, Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone (API) 127, , % Some Other Race 393, Multiple-Race Categories 84, All Races 2,896,016 2,896,212

Why We Bothered (The Devil Made Us Do It) - the “devil” was in the details, as population denominators and their justification - we were “bedeviled” by the intricacies of the process - “deviled if you do, deviled if you don’t”

Contact information: Mark Flotow Illinois Center for Health Statistics Illinois Department of Public Health 525 West Jefferson Street Springfield, IL Telephone: (217) Fax: (217)