Projections Guidebook Chapter (Version 3 Draft 0) By Justin Goodwin On behalf of The Guidebook Update Project

Projections Definitions & Terms Projection Methods General Sector Specific

Projections: Terms and Definitions scenario groups Without Measures With Measures With Additional Measures Other Terms Policies in Place Policies in Pipeline Current Legislation Best Available Technology Maximum Feasible Reduction -Maximum Feasible Technical Reduction -Maximum Feasible Non Technical Reduction Business As Usual Reference Baseline Current Reduction Plans

Decision Tree Models Source Specific Data Less important sources Activity Emission Factor

Tiers Tier 3 are where detailed models are available that provide emissions projections taking account of a number of complex variables and parameters. However, these models must us input data that is consistent with national economic, energy and activity projections used elsewhere in the projected emissions estimates. Tier 2 would be expected to take reasonable account of future activity changes for the sector based on national activity projections and where appropriate (where measures are applied to a source) take account of future changes to emission factors. Expect to stratify your source category in order to apply the appropriate new technology or control factors to sub-sectors. Tier 1 methods can be applied to non-key categories and sources not expected to have future measures applied. Tier 1 projections will only assume generic or zero growth rates and basic projected or latest years historic emission factors.

Formula: Where: E n = The source emission calculated for the projected year n AD n = The projected activity for the whole source in year n (= Ad s * GF n ). EF n = A emission factor appropriate for the future emission rate of the source. = AD s = The Activity data for a historic year chosen as the starting year for the projection GF n = The growth factor for the activity to year n Ef n = The emission factor calculated for the projected year n EF t = The emission factor for a source using a specific technology or control AD t = The projected activity data (consumption/production) for a source using a particular technology or control. p = the total number of technologies

Simplification Industry Coal Gg

Stratification Technology/Control Specific Only where sub sector variations are important 1 A 1 Public Electricity and Heat Production Fuel?Abatement/Technology? Coal Oil GasFGD Filters CCGT

Data Sources Statistical departments: Socio-economic projections data (Economic Growth, population, production/consumption) Government departments: Sector specific data on activities and policies and measures should be gathered from the different government departments. Available datasets could include (Agriculture activity and livestock, Agricultural practices and emissions, traffic forecasts, energy supply and demand). Regulators: Plant upgrade plans, emission limits BREFs Industry & Industrial trade associations’: views on growth and technological implementation. Views can sometimes be political and resistant to change. Vehicle and Engine manufacturers and regulators International  EGTEI (Provides detailed sector specific data for industrial processes)  NH3 expert group  EAGER….  GAINS,

Sensitivities…. Help… What should go here……?? Methods for assessing important components Sensitivities in Models (parameters, emission factors) Generating tornado plots

Other General Guidance Understanding available Technologies Future Technologies Checks and controls Dealing with gaps in projected data

Steps to Estimating Emission Projections Establish a starting point: Identify Important Sources: Initial Trawl for Projections Data: Compile an Initial WM and WoM Projection: Engage with Policy Makers and data providers: Establish data flow and Iteratively improve the Projection for Important Sources: Focussing on with measures projections Improve quality Develop a With Additional Measures Scenario:

Sectoral Overview of methods Energy: Stationary Combustion national energy projections PRIMES model economic demographic(e.g. production, income, population, households) fuel type controls or new technologies Energy: Transport Road Transport: Air: Sea: Rail: Off road: Industrial Processes Production, value Solvent Use Agriculture Waste

Next Steps Gather views and guidance from you… Now.. GG Workshop (November) Draft 1 (December) Review (Feb/March 2008) Finalise (June 08)

Questions: Are the definitions and terms suitably defined? Are there any others? Is the Decision Tree Logical? Are the chosen tiers appropriate? Are the Formula’s sensible? How should future technologies be estimated? What level of detail is needed for the Sectoral Sections? Is more detail needed What are the most important national and international data sources? Should all emission factors necessary be included in the Sector Chapters (Technologies and Controls)? More on Sensitivity Studies needed (Should this be under QA/QC)?