NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center Jason Levit and Amy Harless December 7, 2011 Kansas City, MO NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center Jason Levit and Amy Harless December 7, 2011 Kansas City, MO NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center

AWC Mission and Vision Statement “The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.” “To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.” “The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.” “To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”

Weather is only a small part of the entire NextGen enterprise

The “Game-Changer”… 8 August 2009 Express Jet Flight 2816 IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300 Deplaned at 0600 Passenger “Bill of Rights” “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April 2010 Up to $27,500 per passenger fine Bolstered need for extended forecasting; no longer press-to-fail mentality 8 August 2009 Express Jet Flight 2816 IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300 Deplaned at 0600 Passenger “Bill of Rights” “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April 2010 Up to $27,500 per passenger fine Bolstered need for extended forecasting; no longer press-to-fail mentality

Air Traffic Complexity Courtesy Aaron Koblin –

Air Traffic Complexity Courtesy Aaron Koblin –

Aviation Weather Center Operations CONUS 2 convective desks 2 convective desks 3 area forecast desks 3 area forecast desksInternational 1 area forecast desk 1 area forecast desk 2 global graphics desks 2 global graphics desksWeb Aviation Digital Data Services Aviation Digital Data Services testbed.aviationweather.gov testbed.aviationweather.gov

Aviation Weather Center What’s New? Testbed activities: Summer Experiments Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management” Four new positions: Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011 NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011 GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012 Testbed activities: Summer Experiments Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management” Four new positions: Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011 NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011 GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012

Aviation Weather Center 2011 Evaluations Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011) GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011) NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011) RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present) General perception: Increase in skill with all upgrades Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011) GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011) NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011) RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present) General perception: Increase in skill with all upgrades Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations

Data Acquired (GEMPAK) GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48 NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48 RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87 SFCOA, hrly (via SPC) UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48

Aviation Weather Center Example NWP Applications 1 Hour Calibrated SREF CCFP Conditions FCST: F012 Valid: Wed /2100UTC Forecaster Issued CCFP FCST: F006 Valid: Wed /2100UTC

Aviation Weather Center Example NWP Applications All Flights > 25 kft Impact of Thunderstorms: > 25 kft Combine composite aircraft position data with SREF probabilistic weather information

Aviation Weather Testbed Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets High Resolution Guidance 2011 Summer Experiment Operational Bridging Traffic Impact Convective Initiation Ensembles Calibration Traffic Impact ECFP Enhancement Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets High Resolution Guidance 2011 Summer Experiment Operational Bridging Traffic Impact Convective Initiation Ensembles Calibration Traffic Impact ECFP Enhancement

Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer Experiment

2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment 15 Data SetSourceStatusComments 12-member 4km WRF-ARW Ensemble DoD/AFWAActive18Z start, 36-hour forecast, data starts at 00Z Derivied Traffic Impact PotentialNCARActiveDerivied from AFWA Ensemble 3km HRRRGSDActiveHourly Short-Range EnsembleEMCActiveEvery six hours Convective NearCast - SatelliteGOES-R/CIMSSActiveFifteen minute updates Convective Initiation - SatelliteGOES-R/CIMMSActiveFifteen minute updates Convective ProbabilityMDLActiveNextGen Capability Evaluation CoSPAMIT/LLActiveCCFP first-guess polygons NAEFSEMCActive - AFWAEvery six hours

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment 16 Can high res models provide insight into potential air traffic impact? Will an ensemble show convective mode, morphology, porosity correctly? Model Forecasts Will “Nearcast” data reveal areas of convective initiation that other observation platforms miss? GOES-R Can impact data help forecasters correctly focus on specific threat regions? Are CoSPA CCFP first guess fields/forecasts accurate? Aviation Impact Data Are the displays of data adequate? Colors, contours, strengths, weaknesses? What types of unique displays can be created via data mining techniques? Data Visualization Will experimental data sets help improve an ingredients-based approach to the convection forecast process? Enhance efficiency? Forecast Process Should the AWC move towards probabilistic forecasts of convection? How should we visualize and communicate forecasts? Dashboard? Graphic? Decision Support

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment High Resolution Rapid Refresh Comp. Reflectivity Top 25 Jet Routes High Resolution Rapid Refresh Comp. Reflectivity Top 25 Jet Routes

AFWA Ensemble Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Routes

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North- South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North- South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble NCAR Airspace Capacity Reduction

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment LAMP Convective Probability Probability of convection defined as the occurrence of reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and/or one or more cloud-to-ground lightning strike within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period. LAMP Convective Probability Probability of convection defined as the occurrence of reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and/or one or more cloud-to-ground lightning strike within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment GOES-R Nearcast Product Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals RUC background model Hourly timestamps Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy GOES-R Nearcast Product Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals RUC background model Hourly timestamps Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy

Aviation Weather Testbed 2011 Summer Experiment Aviation Weather Impact Graphics Highlight important weather features for air traffic management for 18z and 00z for Golden Triangle Highlight areas of 30% and 60% probability of exceeding comp. reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and echo tops ≥ 37 kft from 18Z to 00Z for the Golden Triangle

Aviation Weather Testbed Decision Support: Traffic Flow Management Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash “3-hour” Tarmac Rule Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007 performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays Support Operational Bridging Activities Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash “3-hour” Tarmac Rule Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007 performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays Support Operational Bridging Activities Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools

Operational Bridging

Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts Single Authoritative Source Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames Aviation application of Decision Support Services Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts Single Authoritative Source Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames Aviation application of Decision Support Services

Winter Weather Dashboard

Requests/Suggestions/Wish List Increased demand for high-resolution models Microphysics upgrades CI products (application of GOES-R derived products) Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection History variables, interrogate model at each time-step HRRR-E Details provided for SREF upgrade Frequent HRRR outages Increased demand for high-resolution models Microphysics upgrades CI products (application of GOES-R derived products) Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection History variables, interrogate model at each time-step HRRR-E Details provided for SREF upgrade Frequent HRRR outages

High Resolution Model Needs Convective porosity, morphology, mode Convective initiation Hourly max variables, max change Reforecasts for calibration Ensembles: post processed statistics Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment Increased bandwidth Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2 Convective porosity, morphology, mode Convective initiation Hourly max variables, max change Reforecasts for calibration Ensembles: post processed statistics Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment Increased bandwidth Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2

Thank you! Great team effort: Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC) Response to requests 24x7 support of dataflow Model upgrades Great team effort: Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC) Response to requests 24x7 support of dataflow Model upgrades