Strategic Planning for Coastal Flooding and Erosion Nick Hardiman Senior Coastal Adviser Environment Agency Strategic Overview

Overview The scale of the challenge Environment Agency coastal strategy Managing for uncertainty Avoidance and adaptation Challenges for the strategic approach 2

The scale of the challenge – sea level rise 12-76cm sea level rise by 2080 Extreme predictions of up to 1.9m by 2100 Wave height changes unclear: Winter mean -35cm to +5cm, annual maxima -1.5m to +1m 3

4 UKCP09 predicts storm surge to be not more than 90mm anywhere in UK – but this is on top of sea- level rise. Storm surge

50% probability level, central estimate UKCP02 UKCP09 More intense rainfall contributing to cliff erosion? Rainfall patterns

Approximately 1.3 million people at coastal flood and erosion risk in England & Wales About 1 in 25 properties are at risk from sea flooding About a quarter of the coastline eroding at >10cm/year – but up to almost 2m/yr in some places 740 properties at risk from erosion in next 20 years 6 Risk to people and property

UNCLASSIFIED7 Environment Agency Strategy Establishes a ‘line of sight’ from national to local strategy Emphasises local understanding and action Partnership working – and funding Sustainable, catchment/coastal cell approach bringing multiple benefits where possible

Shoreline Management Plans (1) Hold the Line No Active Intervention Managed Retreat Advance the Line

Not development plans, and not statutory Long-term - set the ‘direction of travel’ Can be challenged, changed and are subject to funding availability Use consistent data sets informed by local expertise Intensive public engagement and consultation Shoreline Management Plans (2)

10 Managing for uncertainty Project design that allows for future adaptation features Local management policies responsive to monitoring Integrating coastal management planning with development planning

UNCLASSIFIED11 Shoreline Management Plans – a guide for development planners

Well-established flood risk assessment process Respected Environment Agency development control Estimated CBR of 14:1 Coastal Change Management Areas 106. Local planning authorities should reduce risk from coastal change by avoiding inappropriate development in vulnerable areas or adding to the impacts of physical changes to the coast. They should identify as a Coastal Change Management Area any area likely to be affected by physical changes to the coast, and: ●● be clear as to what development will be appropriate in such areas and in what circumstances ; and ●● make provision for development and infrastructure that needs to be relocated away from Coastal Change Management Areas When assessing applications, authorities should consider development in a Coastal Change Management Area appropriate where it is demonstrated that: ●● it will be safe over its planned lifetime and will not have an unacceptable impact on coastal change; ●● the character of the coast including designations is not compromised; ●● the development provides wider sustainability benefits ; and ●● the development does not hinder the creation and maintenance of a continuous signed and managed route around the coast Local planning authorities should also ensure appropriate development in a Coastal Change Management Area is not impacted by coastal change by limiting the planned life-time of the proposed development through temporary permission and restoration conditions where necessary to reduce the risk to people and the development. Risk avoidance – using the development planning system

Consistent evidence base Meaningful boundaries? Opportunity as well as sacrifice Flexibility on restrictions applied Community input Coastal Change Management Areas

14 Opportunities at the seafront Blackpool – 3km of new sea wall with a design life of 100 years Protects 1500 homes and businesses, plus new ‘urban park’ promenade Partnership approach: £67.5m from Government, plus Regional Development Funds for public amenity

Coastal adaptation 15 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – defence spending will not keep pace with change Need to adapt proactively Defra pathfinders experienced success and challenge – an emerging picture

Challenges for adaptation Relocation: Homeowners were not always happy with new plots …and didn’t always want to move as a ‘community’ Replacement plots sometimes contested by residents Roll-back: Is land available, is it cost-effective, is it technically feasible? Buy-and-lease: Large initial outlay for local authority, slow unpredictable returns Setting fair payments without ‘compensating’ is difficult Managed re-alignment: Working with natural processes vs biodiversity/ecosystem function Often seen as a threat by communities – engagement intensive Controversy surrounding ‘food security’, budget use, landscape etc

Challenges for the strategic approach 17 Engaging people about long term risk – 20 years as ‘short term’ Empowering people to make decisions on sound but changing evidence Encouraging investment security whilst retaining flexibility Keeping strategic plans ‘living’ and active Communicating uncertainty whilst maintaining authority Giving people options now to change in the future