Allan Darling Deputy Director, NCEP Central Operations NOAA NWS NCEP

NUOPC IOC-1 / NAEFS PM: Fred Toepfer Objective G Key Issues/Risks/Mitigation Risk: Schedule has slipped due to effect of required maintenance on availability of development system. Completion of external evaluation the week of 20 December pushes project completion to the first possible post-holiday implementation date of 11 January Mitigation: None Schedule Requirement: Combine the NOAA and Navy ensemble members as the National Ensemble. Combine this National Ensemble and the CMC ensemble in the NAEFS. With the addition of FNMOC, increase NAEFS members from 126 to 166, forecasts to 16 days, and standardize variables. Goal: Enhance the multi-model ensemble system to produce bias corrected ensemble variables and probabilistic products for use by the Operational Centers. Resources November 10, 2010 FNMOC Dr. M. Sestak Mr. J. Ertl NWS Telecommunication Operations Center Mr. R. Bunge NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Dr. W. Lapenta Mr. Y. Zhu NCEP Central Operations Mr. A. Darling Mr. D. Starosta Ms. R. Cosgrove Ms. M. Mainelli G Y Y Implementation slip from 22 Dec to 11 Jan

3 NUOPC IOC – Task Status DATMS-U upgrade (JAG/CCM) - Complete Infrastructure augmentation (TOC) - Complete Ensemble delivery (FNMOC) - Complete GRIB2 384H 72 variables New file structure for communication and processing efficiency Routine delivery (FNMOC, TOC, NCEP) - Complete Ensemble integration (NCEP, FNMOC) - Complete Transition to operations (NCEP) – In process

NUOPC IOC – Planned Implementation Adding FNMOC ensemble to NAEFS FNMOC 20+(1) members, out to 16 days, twice per day Bias correction based on its FNMOC analysis Four variables to include NCEP, CMC and FNMOC ensembles 2 meter temperature 10 meter zonal wind 10 meter meridional wind 850mb temperature Expected Benefits Multi-model, multi-center ensembles Improve the forecast skill for near surface variable Continued evaluation of the benefits derived from the addition of the FNMOC ensemble data is required Scope change may be required if pre-implementation testing reveals negative impact on skill for any of the four variables listed above

5 NUOPC – Next Steps Develop UEO Implementation and Management Plan Dissemination requirements month work plan Backup requirements Development coordination Rationalize NUOPC and NAEFS requirements Establish NUOPC / NAEFS coordination process Potential supporting infrastructure upgrades FNMOC interface system upgrades Next Generation COPC Enterprise Network (AI )

Action Item – Management Agreement COPC Action Item : Develop and submit to COPC for approval a Unified Multi-Model Ensemble Operations annex to the DAPE MOA to address NAEFS and/or NUOPC operations management, alignment of performance requirements, change management, and data dissemination. Priority: H Advocate: WG/CSAB, JAG/OCM, and JAG/CCM Suspense: October 2010 CSAB is evaluating whether an appendix to the DAPE MOA is appropriate or if a new MOA is required to accomplish this agreement. Management details regarding performance and alignment with change are still under evaluation. CSAB recommends this action be kept open. 6