COSMO Priority Project CORSO “ C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games” General Meeting 2011

2 22 km

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 3 KRASNAYA POLYANA General Meeting 2011

PP CORSO Part 1 Rome, 2011 General Meeting 2011

17 staff members COSMO-RU: 11 - PhD, 4 - postgraduates, 2 - graduates MSU 1. Technol. Line : D.Blinov, G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina; 2. Snow : E.Kazakova, I. Rozinkina ; 3. T2m : G.Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E.Sapuntsova; 4. Boundary layer: M.Chumakov, V.Perov; 5. VERSUS-2 : A.Bundel, A.Muravev; 6. h <= 2.2 km : D.Blinov, G.Rivin; 7. Ensembles : D.Alferov, E.Astakhova, G.Rivin; 8. Data Assim. : V.Gorin, M.Tsyrulnykov; 9.ART : A.Kirsanov, A.Revokatova, G.Surkova. 10.Mires : A.Yurova 5 General Meeting 2011

SYSTEM COSMO-RU GME  x = 30/20 km COSMO-RU7  x = 7 km COSMO-RU2  x =2.2 km Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 км Time step: 15 сек Forecast: 24 час. Cores: 400 Grid: * 60 Step: 30 / 20 км Time step: 110 сек Forecast: 7 суток Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации COSMO-RUsib  x =14 km GME: initial and boundary data Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 км Time step: 40 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 800 Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 км Time step: 80 сек Forecast: 78 час. Cores: 48. 6

April 13, 2011 Roshydromet decided to implement the system of mesoscale weather prediction COSMO-RU in operational practice as a base for use in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and other Roshydromet prognostic offices. Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 7 General Meeting 2011

COSMO-RU07: domain, time of run with MPI Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 8 Initial and boundary data: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 78 h (00,12 UTC) 48 h (06,18 UTC) Grid step 7 km Grid: 700 * 620 * 40 SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024 cores 33 min: 512 cores 59 min: 256 cores 4340 km 4900 km

Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации COSMO-RU02: domain, time of run with MPI h = 2.2 km 9 Initial and boundary data: 00,06,12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 24 h Grid step 2.2 km Grid: 420 * 470 * 50 (Moscow) 420 * 470 * 50 (Sochi) SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium 2, 64-bit, 3,3 Tb memory) Run time for 24 h. 27 min : 400 cores h = 2.2 km Moscow Sochi

COSMO-RU products, 00 / 12 UTC): Maps: more 900 Meteograms: near 400, GRIB1 datasets– more 300 files, data on the databases of HMC of Russia 10 General Meeting 2011

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Т2м Td2м Т850 Т700 Т500 PRESSURE PRECIPITATION CONVECTIVE CLOUDNESS м м м м м 0 м CLOUDSNESS мм/3часа мм/час december 27 december Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации DAY and HOURS 13 WIND 500 гПа 700 гПа 850 гПа 500 м 10 м COSMO-RU07: MOSCOW, _15 – _21 (msc) COSMO-RU07: MOSCOW, _15 – _21 (msc)

Velocity, m/c 14 Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 Wind

15 Т, ˚С Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 T General Meeting 2011

COSMO-RU02, September-November 2010, Psea, Moscow 16

COSMO-RU2, February 2011, T2m (prepared by A. Bundel & Versus2) 17

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, SOCHI-2014,, _15MSC COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014, T 2m, _15MSC

, SOCHI-2014, _15MSC COSMO-RU02, SOCHI-2014, Precipitation, _15MSC

PP CORSO Part 2 Rome, 2011 C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games

22 MOTIVATION 1. For COSMO model development: COSMO Science Plan (publication date: , p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1-3 km.... the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution.” 2. Meteorological support for Olympics “Sochi-2014”

23 PP CORSO - main goal: To develop and improve the complex operational high resolution short-range forecast technology for mountain areas for winter weather events on base of COSMO researches (in example of Sochi area)

CORSO Task 1. High resolution COSMO model development for mountainous regions 1.1. DA for bottom layers and land surface state 1.2. Physical aspects, incl. land data set verification 1.3 Numerical aspects of high (1km) resolution 1.4. Operational support and products dissemination Deliverables: FDP: Operative COSMO-RU for SOCHI-2014, h=2.2 km with DA (Sn,T2m) RDP: Modification of COSMO-1 km, analysis of the results of the tests 2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL G.Rivin MeteoSwiss, APRA-SIMC DWD

CORSO - Task 2. Downscalling postprocessing for mountain areas 2.1. Configuration of down-scaling operation system, incl. different approaches of postprocessing 2.2. Data measurement collection 2.3 Local weather studies and techniques for classification 2.4. Operational support and guidelines for forecasters Deliverables: FDP: Operative forecasting technology of local weather and specific parameters for sportive venues, visualisation support, guidelines for forecasters. RDP: Tested techniques of downscaling, algorithms of vertical T interpolation in mountains, algorythms of calculation of specific weather parameters, development of weather types classification 2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL I. Rozinkina MeteoSwiss

CORSO - Task 3. Ensemble high-resolution forecasting for Sochi area FDP: Adaptation of COSMO LEPS at 7 km to the Sochi region (SOCHMEL7) and to specific requirements of winter Olympic games RDP: Development of high-resolution COSMO-based EPS at 2.2 km for the Sochi region Deliverables: FDP: Operational EPS technology at 7 km for the Sochi region RDP: COSMO-based EPS 2.2 km. Case studies. Comparison 2.2 km EPS vs 7 km EPS. 2.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL E. Astakhova, APRA-SIRC, TL A.Montani

CORSO - Task 4. Adapted verification 4.1. Data collection for verification 4.2. Weather dependent and conditional verification tools adapted to Sochi region System of verification of current deterministic and ENS forecast in-situ of measurements 4.4. Implementation of object-oriented and multiscale analysis Operational support and guidelines for forecasters Deliverables: FDP: Results of verifications of numerical products RDP: Data sets for testing of numerical products. Developed methods of conditional verification for mountainous regions. Analysis and recommendations for further development of used forecasting systems. 1.5 FTE / year HMC of Russia, TL A. Boundel APRA-SIM, Hellenic meteoservice

COSMO Priority Project CORSO “ C onsolidation of O peration and R esearch results for the S ochi O lympic Games” Thanks !