Life course perspectives on crime combining quantitative & qualitative approaches Barbara Maughan MRC SGDP, Kings College London Institute of Psychiatry

Life course theory and research Aims –the study of human development and ageing Assumptions –development: dynamic interaction among mental, biological & behavioural aspects of the individual and physical, social & cultural aspects of the environment –biological, psychological and social factors influence life course pathways throughout the life course –continuity and change –equifinality and multifinality

Some key concepts Life course –age-graded patterns –embedded in social institutions and history Age / life stage –chronological, biological and social definitions Trajectories –sequences of roles/experiences Transitions in roles / states –leaving home, starting work, becoming a parent Turning points –experiences associated with lasting shifts in trajectories

How well do long-term quantitative studies match these aims? Major advances but also Difficulties / limitations –tracking (multiple) trajectories / event histories –typically: variable-based approach to identifying predictors –limited understanding of: heterogeneity in outcomes contextual influences meanings of events to participants role of individual agency Can adding qualitative evidence help?

The specific problem: understanding the development of crime

The Age-Crime Curve Men and women found guilty or cautioned per 100,000 population: England & Wales, 1997

The specific problem: understanding the development of crime what accounts for: onset of offending persistence in offending desistance from offending extensive research predominantly quantitative or ethnographic numerous theoretical models

Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance maturation / aging –desistance normative –largely unaffected by life-course events rational choice –reappraisal of costs/benefits of crime social learning –much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers –crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations developmental models –childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence later course

The study: early origins (1930s and 1940s) Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency: Sheldon & Eleanor Glueck 1950 case control design –500 delinquent males –500 non-delinquents from same low income neighbourhoods –matched on age, ethnicity & IQ 3 waves – ages 14, 25 & 32 –extensive data on boys, their families and early work, educational, occupational and relationship histories

The study: re-analysis Crime in the Making: Sampson & Laub, 1993 reconstructed and re-analyzed original Glueck data key messages (quantitative analyses) –age-graded theory of informal social control –across the life-course, crime & deviance more likely when bonds to society weak childhood: family & school But adolescent & adult experiences can also redirect trajectories turning points: marriage & work attachment to social bonds

Subsequent challenges Methodological –too variable-oriented required more person-based approach –new quantitative developments group-based trajectory modelling (Nagin) dynamic approach to identifying sub-groups Theoretical –developmental taxonomy (Moffitt)

Moffitts developmental taxonomy Moffitt, 1993 childhood onset / life course persistent Adolescent onset Age

The study: follow-up to age 70 Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Laub & Sampson, 2003 Aims –address challenges –refine own theoretical model Methods –criminal record searches –death record searches –life history interviews with purposively selected sub-samples –interweaving of qualitative & quantitative data and analyses

Quantitative analyses of offence data Latent class trajectory modelling –is the age-crime relationship invariant across offenders? offence types? –is any variability explainable by childhood factors?

Latent class models of offending trajectories property crime ages 7-70 Laub & Sampson 2003 Age (years)

Quantitative analyses of offence data Latent class trajectory modelling –age-crime relationship varies across offenders offence types –variability not entirely explainable by childhood factors What accounts for variations in persistence/desistance?

Life history interviews tracing –re-located 79% of prior delinquents known to be alive age 70 purposive sampling –contrasting groups, based on quantitative (crime) data response –66% of those available for interview interviewed –desisters (n=19) juvenile but not adult convictions –persisters (n=14) juvenile & adult (including post age 32) violent convictions –zig-zag criminal careers (n=19) late (post-32) onset violence adult (post-17) onset violence intermittent offenders

Life history interviews life history calendar to place major events –interviewer and study participant work together –visual aid, focusing on multiple domains aids recall helps clarify inconsistencies –focus on sequences, not isolated events –contextualizes events –can use personalized markers (birthdays, illnesses etc) open-ended interviews –life history in range of domains –evaluations of lives –self-defined turning points reliability of accounts checked against existing records

Understanding desistance qualitative accounts combination of –individual agency (choice) –situational contexts / structural influences by product of other changes 4 major self-described turning points –reform school –military service –marriage / partnership –neighbourhood change core features –knife off past from present –provide social support / emotional attachment but also structured daily activities monitoring and control –opportunities for identity transformation

Understanding desistance qualitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003 Turning points Id say the turning point was, number one, the Army. You get into an outfit, you had a sense of belonging, you made your friends. I think I became a pretty good judge of character… Theres no question that the fittest survive, and you have to learn to get along with everybody. (p 132) The thing that changed me was marriage. That turned me right straight down the line. She wont put up with any baloney. Well, if youve got a job youre supposed to do what the boss wants. I call her the boss. No, were both the boss, [but] shes got more head than I have. Shes got more schooling, she knows more. And I agree with her. (p 134)

Understanding persistence qualitative accounts backgrounds similar to desisters validity of accounts? –substantial cover-up rare core themes –not individual characteristics / traits instead –lack of connective structures at each stage in life course –failure in school & military –residential, marital & job instability leading to –continued exposure to situations conducive to crime –downward spiral –awareness of missed opportunities

Understanding persistence qualitative accounts: Laub & Sampson, 2003 My entire record is stealing cars and armed robbery… it was so easy and money was so scarce… I couldnt find a good job. And I couldnt find a job where I could learn a trade. And I didnt have no education. So I did the only thing I could. (p 151) What got me off track was when I came out I stayed with my sisters for a while and it was hard. Then I just took off. I never came back. I quit my job and I went from one friend to another friend. I didnt want to impose on anyone. (p 166) She wanted to get away from him so she came with me and lived with me. We got married and then the bills started piling up and I just got in trouble again. I couldnt make it. So we started stealing and robbing and I got myself back in prison. And she divorced me. I was only married a very short time, probably nine months. I tried to straighten out but I couldnt. I was in too deep. (p 159)

Some theoretical perspectives on crime and desistance maturation / aging –desistance normative –largely unaffected by life-course eventsNO rational choice –reappraisal of costs/benefits of crimeNO social learning –much deviance prompted by links with deviant peers –crime trends mirror trends in deviant peer affiliations ? developmental models –childhood risk factors (individual & social) influence later course NO

Understanding desistance additional quantitative analyses interviews suggested particular adult states associated with reductions in crime risk re-coded record and interview data to reflect age-years of –marriage / employment / military service –crime –incarceration hierarchical linear models changes in event-rate of crime –systematically associated with adult role transitions –men less likely to be criminal in states of marriage etc –state of marriage: 40% reduction in rate of offending –ie quantitative analyses support conclusions from qualitative data

Overview Theory-rich area –many (often competing) models –qualitative and quantitative approaches typically distinct Example –integration of qualitative element into predominantly quantitative study –aim: to refine theory Approach –reciprocal use of qualitative and quantitative elements throughout –sampling derived from quantitative data same individuals involved in both elements –records used to check history aspects of interview accounts –qualitative data prompted new approach to quantitative analyses

Combining qualitative and quantitative approaches in life course studies Advantages –highlights role of individual agency –grounded in social & historical context –reveals person-situation context: meanings of events to individuals variations in meanings at different life-stages how events structure later life course –reveal complexity in patterns of continuity/change