1 Conflict & Marxist Theory Prediction: Those who lack power will get treated more harshly by the CJS In U.S., power = race/class Controlling for “legal variables,” the evidence on this issue is mixed Victim may be more important than offender; also depends on crime (e.g., drug use) Victim may be more important than offender; also depends on crime (e.g., drug use) Barkan’s point: largely comparing poor with poorer…

2 Criticism of Radical Criminology No compelling explanation of “street crime” Why do poor victimize poor? Why do poor victimize poor? Ignore the plight of the poor, victims of street crime Ignore the plight of the poor, victims of street crime This is not a “struggle for political power” Are “socialist” or “communist” countries better? (Lower crime rates?) Why do some capitalist countries (Japan) have low crime rates?

3 Deterrence Theory Historical Context of Choice Theories Deterrence Theory

4 The Classical School of Criminology The Age of Enlightenment ( ) Beccaria, Bentham (others): Need for A Rational Punishment System Hedonistic Calculus, path of least resistance Hedonistic Calculus, path of least resistance Possible to control behavior through formal punishment Possible to control behavior through formal punishment

5 REBIRTH in the 70’s and 80”s Martinson Report and the “nothing works” attack on rehabilitation Thinking About Crime by James Q. Wilson attacks view that crime is a function of external forces Wilson proposes a forceful reaction to crime, otherwise, those sitting on the fence will get the idea that “crime pays” Wilson proposes a forceful reaction to crime, otherwise, those sitting on the fence will get the idea that “crime pays”

6 ASSUMPTIONS Hedonistic Calculus (Rational) Hedonistic Calculus (Rational) Fear of formal punishment is the only (or most important) restraint for crime Fear of formal punishment is the only (or most important) restraint for crime Deterrence Theory

7 General Deterrence As the severity, certainty, and swiftness of formal (state sanctioned) punishment increases, criminal behavior decreases. Absolute vs. Marginal Effects

8 Objective Measures of Severity Death Penalty Average Sentence Length Average “Time Served” Evidence? Very Weak if Any

9 Objective Measures of Certainty Arrest rates (clearance rates) Possible “tipping effect” for large metropolitan areas (SMSA’s) if clearance rates exceed 30% Possible “tipping effect” for large metropolitan areas (SMSA’s) if clearance rates exceed 30% Percent of Arrests Resulting in Convictions

10 Manipulation of Certainty The Kansas Preventative Patrol Experiment Sameul Walker’s “mayonnaise” theory of police patrolling. Sameul Walker’s “mayonnaise” theory of police patrolling. But, “directed patrols” and “saturation patrols” may be effective But, “directed patrols” and “saturation patrols” may be effective Police “crackdowns” Short term effects, displacement. Short term effects, displacement.

11 Perceptual Measures of General Deterrence Ask people: What are the odds that you would get apprehended if you did __________ What are the odds that you would get apprehended if you did __________ How severely would you be punished if you did _________ How severely would you be punished if you did _________ Those who think the odds of apprehension are high and the penalties are severe should be less criminal (Largely an “EXPERIENTIAL” Effect). Those who think the odds of apprehension are high and the penalties are severe should be less criminal (Largely an “EXPERIENTIAL” Effect).

12 Manipulating Perceptions of Severity—Scared Straight! Juvenile Awareness Project Help (JAPH) Rahway Prison, NJ (created in 1976) Rahway Prison, NJ (created in 1976) The Program Intimidate kids (delinquents?) and show them how bad prisons are Intimidate kids (delinquents?) and show them how bad prisons are Tour of prison, “rap session” with “lifers”… Tour of prison, “rap session” with “lifers”… Scared Straight! Documentary Claimed success rate of 94%, won Academy Award, immensely popular with public Claimed success rate of 94%, won Academy Award, immensely popular with public Redone by MTV in Claimed 12/14 (86%) were “scared straight”

13 Original Scared Straight Juvenile Awareness Project Help (JAPH) Rahway Prison, NJ (created in 1976) Rahway Prison, NJ (created in 1976) The Program Intimidate kids (delinquents?) and show them how bad prisons are Intimidate kids (delinquents?) and show them how bad prisons are Tour of prison, “rap session” with “lifers”… Tour of prison, “rap session” with “lifers”… Scared Straight! Documentary Claimed success rate of 94%, won Academy Award, immensely popular with public Claimed success rate of 94%, won Academy Award, immensely popular with public Redone by MTV in Claimed 12/14 (86%) were “scared straight”

14 Research on Scared Straight Type Programs ( )

15 SPECIFIC DETERRENCE Individuals who are caught and sanctioned by the criminal justice system will be less likely to re-offend Does prison reduce recidivism? Does prison reduce recidivism? Do “deterrence based” programs reduce recidivism? Do “deterrence based” programs reduce recidivism? BOOT CAMPS INTENSIVE PROBATION

16 Minneapolis domestic violence study (Larry Sherman) Randomly assign d.v. strategies to police officers Arrest, Counsel, or Separate for 8 hours Arrest, Counsel, or Separate for 8 hoursFindings: Arrest = 10% re-arrested after 3 months Counseling = 19% Separate = 24% BUT: Replications Didn’t Work!!!

17 Conclusions Regarding Empirical Support Weak empirical support If anything, the certainty of punishment may have marginal effects on crime If anything, the certainty of punishment may have marginal effects on crime WHY SO WEAK? Based on “weak” theory—weak assumptions Based on “weak” theory—weak assumptions Limits of deterrence in a democratic society Limits of deterrence in a democratic society MARGINAL vs. ABSOLUTE MARGINAL vs. ABSOLUTE

18 Informal Sanctions Fear of Informal Sanctions is not “Deterrence theory.” Informal social control theory (Hirschi, others) Informal social control theory (Hirschi, others) However, formal sanctions may “kick in” informal sanctions.

19 Policy Implications of Deterrence Rehabilitation, (unless painful) won’t work, and may “send the wrong message” Raising the certainty, swiftness or severity of criminal penalties will work If system cannot be swift, severe and certain enough, then reduce opportunities for offending Incapacitation Incapacitation