A Year’s Progress and Promise for the Future

State Leadership Center for Climate Strategies

State Climate Plan Results Center for Climate Strategies

Cost Curves, Sectors Center for Climate Strategies

National Scale Up Center for Climate Strategies

National Cost Curve Center for Climate Strategies

Matching Portfolios Center for Climate Strategies

Policy Integration Center for Climate Strategies

MID-RANGE CASE – Residential electronics Commercial electronics Residential buildings - Lighting Commercial LED Lighting Commercial buildings - Combined heat & power Industry – Combined heat and power Residential buildings – Shell retrofits Commercial buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Residential buildings – HVAC equipment efficiency Commercial buildings – New shell improvements Energy efficiency-related opportunities Potential Gigatons/year Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e Significant capture Energy Independence and Security Act Commercial Super T8 lighting Refrigerators and commercial water heaters Residential water heaters Efficiency represents 37% of abatement potential Substantial energy efficiency opportunity (1.3 gigatons); primarily negative cost Perishable (e.g., differential between new-build and retrofit costs up to $80 per ton) Addressing opportunity dependent upon many consumer choices Known and challenging barriers (e.g., agency, education, payback) prevent capture Energy efficiency opportunity profile Source:McKinsey analysis Residential NB HVAC Control systems Non- refrigerator appliances Conversion efficiency improvements

Source:U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007) “Reference case;” McKinsey analysis Terawatt-hours 2005 load Incremental load 2030 projected load Buildings and appliances IndustryTrans- portation (plug-in hybrids) 2030 load 40% Abatement categories MID-RANGE CASE – 2030 Energy efficiency has potential to offset majority of projected build through , ,0675,3851,520 3,865 Net gain from energy efficiency

MID-RANGE CASE – Coal power plants – CCS new builds with EOR Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds with EOR Coal-to- gas shift – dispatch of existing plants Coal power plants – CCS new builds Coal power plants – CCS rebuilds Distributed solar PV Potential Gigatons/year Cost Real 2005 dollars per ton CO 2 e Power sector opportunities Nuclear new- build Power sector represents 26% of abatement potential and is most capital-intensive Many high-potential technology options where current costs and/or business risks slow adoption Support required for –Research, development and deployment –Debottlenecking of business and regulatory processes Source:McKinsey analysis Low-carbon power opportunity profile High-penetration onshore wind Geothermal Low-penetration onshore wind Med-penetration onshore wind Offshore wind Small hydro

3% 8% 20% 17% 0% 52% 3, % 9% 17% 9% 33% 2030 with abatement Other* Renewables Nuclear 0% Coal with CCS Conventional coal -24% 4,115 13% 60% 5, reference case 2% 23% 24% Gas 100% = Energy efficiency reduction Terawatt-hours, Percent Changes in composition of U.S. power generation MID-RANGE CASE – 2030 *Includes oil, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and pumped storage Source: U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2007) “Reference case“, McKinsey analysis

Energy Efficiency as a Resource Energy efficiency is widely available, quickly deployable and the least-cost energy resource Investment in Energy Efficiency can: Defer the need for new generation or transmission Help to reduce future electric costs Create new “green collar” jobs in the local community Helps reduce the cost of fuel – gas and coal – by reducing demand and helping rebalance markets Complements renewable energy programs

Role of Efficiency in U.S. Economy Source: Art Rosenfeld, CEC

Efficiency and Renewable Policy Impacts for Florida 2023 EE&RE Resources = 99 Billion kWh Public Awareness Program

What do we do? BIG Changes Needed: Improve visibility of the energy efficiency resource through data collection and dissemination Facilitate investments in EE technologies and services by expanding the range of investment options; Promote and reward adoption of EE technologies and services by identifying and providing social, political, and economic incentives steering behavior toward sustainable energy practices.

Panel Participants Suzanne Watson Policy Director American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Michael Sole Secretary Florida Department of Environmental Protection Scott Nyquist Director, Global Energy & Materials McKinsey & Company Tom Peterson President & CEO Center for Climate Strategies