Benoît ESNAULT Commission de Régulation de l’Energie 17th Madrid Forum Madrid, 15 January year network development plan ERGEG recommendations

2 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 Overview of the ERGEG work on 10 Year Network Development Plan ERGEG’s approach Prepare the implementation of the 3rd package: ACER will have to give an opinion on EU wide 10YNDP and monitor its implementation Focus on methodology and expected content ERGEG work started in 2008, in parallel with GTE+ Documents published ERGEG recommendations, March 2009 Evaluation of comments paper, November 2009 Public consultation and workshops Online consultation from 25 March to 29 May st ERGEG workshop on 29 April nd ERGEG workshop on 27 October 2009 Publication of ERGEG revised recommendations in the beginning of 2010 Network simulation project (ongoing)

3 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 Recent regulatory developments a key role for the 10 YNDP 3rd Package Infrastructure development related to the single market  Prospective SoS Regulation Infrastructure standards for crisis management  Risk mitigation Investment notification  Monitoring EU 10 YNDP Scenarios and simulations Assessment of existing infrastructures & projects Monitoring report

4 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January YNDP in the 3rd package ACER and Gas Regulations Community wide 10 year network development plan (EU 10 YNDP) The ENTSOG shall adopt and publish a EU 10 YNDP every 2 years (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation) The ENTSOG shall conduct an extensive consultation process, at an early stage, involving all relevant market participants (Art Gas Regulation) The EU 10 YNDP shall include the modeling of the integrated network, scenario development, a European supply and adequacy report and an assessment of the resilience of the system (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation) The Agency shall provide an opinion on the EU 10 YNDP and monitor its implementation (Art. 6 - ACER Regulation) The Agency shall review “national ten year network development plans” to assess their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation) Regional Investment plans TSOs shall publish a regional investment plan every 2 years, and may take investment decisions based on that regional investment plan (Art Gas Regulation) Multiannual investment plans? Perimeter of the region?

5 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January YNDP in the 3rd package Gas Directive Individual TSOs 10 YNDP The obligations of the TSOs vary according to the unbundling model chosen by the Member State The ISO has to comply with a 10 YNDP monitored by the NRA (Art. 14, Gas Directive) ITO: NRA has to consult the users, examine consistency with the EU 10 YNDP and may require amendments. NRA can take measures to ensure the realization of an investment – Focus on three years ahead (Art. 22 Gas directive) NRA monitors investment plans of the TSOs and provide an assessment as regards to their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 41 Gas directive)

6 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 ERGEG’s recommendations Objectives of the 10 year network development plan Provide a shared vision of the European gas dynamics to all stakeholders: tool for transparency Identification of bottlenecks and investment gaps: beneficial to competition and security of supply Content of the plan Built on assumptions and scenarios for supply/demand Simulations of disruptions using a model of the integrated network Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks Include a monitoring report to identify deviations from the precedent plan update on potential delays Methodology: combine top down & bottom up Top down: broad vision of the European gas dynamics, energy strategy and risks, harmonization of assumptions and coherence of data (when possible) Bottom-up: collection of national data on supply & demand Importance of stakeholders consultation

7 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 ERGEG Public consultation Main conclusions 22 responses received published on Scope Include LNG and storage projects when cross border impact The EU 10 YNDP does not formally aim at influencing market dynamics Arbitrating between infrastructure projects could be difficult for ENTSOG Methodology Select a small number of scenarios including one based on national forecasts and others on Community wide models Modelling: the model should be developed by ENTSOG in consultation with stakeholders and consistently with the Gas Coordination Group. The bulk of data should be gathered at a national level – homogenisation of data and review of their coherence at an EU level Harmonisation of the assumptions and definitions when possible – assumptions on peak day and severe winter conditions should be published

8 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 Beyond the 3rd package 10 YNDP and security of supply Synergies with TEN-E projects Contribute to identify priority infrastructures Security of Gas Supply Regulation project, impact on the 10YNDP Supply standards: supply for protected consumers guaranteed for 60 days according to the 1 out of 20 rule Infrastructure standards: N-1 rule, reverse flows at all the IPs Risk assessment based on scenarios Infrastructure & supply standards will feed the 10YNDP; synergies concerning risk assessment Relations with the Gas Coordination Group GCG could contribute to identify investment needs for security of supply purposes Building the 10 YNDP is a collective process in which the GCG could play an important role

9 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 Conclusions ENTSOG will be responsible for the plan Implement the necessary means to be successful and associate its members Scenarios and assumptions will have to be discussed with stakeholders When announced, investment projects translate some commitment from TSOs Provide elements on projects’ feasibility ERGEG expectations 10 YNDP must be more than an aggregation of national plans Be careful about the impact on the market Coherence between national, regional and EU wide investment plans Methodology: develop a pragmatic and flexible approach Learning by doing process, build on lessons learnt from GTE+ process and dialogue with stakeholders Avoid being too prescriptive about methodology from now Way forward Revised recommendations early 2010 Workshop on 26 January 2010

10 17th Madrid Forum, Madrid, 15 January 2010 Thank you!