Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati 2015 Forecast Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee Prepared October 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Northern Kentucky/Greater Cincinnati 2015 Forecast Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee Prepared October 2014

Real GDP – Chained 2009 Dollars (Annual Percentage Change) Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; 2014/2015 forecasts: Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Real GDP Forecast US since 2009: 5 years real GDP growth US GDP growth continues… 2014: up 2.2% 2015: up 2.9% NKY/Cincy Region since 2003: Slower than US average : Greater than US average (Mfg. uptick) NKY/Cincy Region GDP grows, but slower than US… 2014: up 2.1% 2015: up 2.7% 2.7%

Personal Income Trends (Cincinnati MSA, $ thousands)

Federal Share of State Revenues Federal Share FY2012 Kentucky: 35.7% Ohio: 34.9% Federal Share Annual Avg : Kentucky: 31.7% Ohio: 30.6% National avg.: 28.9% Federal Share Annual Avg : Kentucky: 37% Ohio: 36.3% National avg.: 33.4% Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts’ analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of State Government Finances, accessed January 23, 2014.

Employment (Annual Growth Rate in Percent) Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Employment (thousands of jobs) Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Employment Forecast Q Q NKY/Cincy: up 1.9% (19,000 jobs) US: up 1.8% (2.4M jobs) Calendar Year 2015 NKY/Cincy: up 2% (20,850 jobs) US: up 2% 2.0%

Manufacturing Jobs (Annual Percentage Change) Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Authorized (12-month Moving Average) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau; Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Residential Construction Forecast 2004: Permits peak at 13, : Permits bottom out at 3,200 (76% drop) Short-term trends GOOD: 2014: Permits up 5 percent 2015: Permits up 7 percent at 4, : Mortgage Bankers Association forecast- 30-yr. fixed rate BELOW 5.3% all year Long-term trends NOT-SO-GOOD: Housing demand SOFTENS, due to demographic trends 7.0%

Unemployment Rate Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Unemployment Forecast GOOD: 2015 Average Unemployment DOWN 5.0% NOT-SO-GOOD: Civilian Labor Force DOWN 2.1 % since 2009 peak BLS: Civilian Labor Force trend DOWN next 10 years 5.0%

Civilian Labor Force Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Retail Sales Forecast OVERALL: 2015: up 5.7% HOLIDAY SEASON: 2014: up, but not sensational 5.7%

Annual Inflation (Percentage Change, CPI-U) Data source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2014/2015 forecasts Cincinnati Consensus Forecasting Committee

Forecast Risks “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” -Niels Bohr, Nobel prize-winning physicist

Population Growth Rate Slowing (Annual Percentage Change) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau 1.2% 0.04% 1.4% 0.07%

Economic, Population Growth Go Hand-in-Hand 30-50% of economic growth tied to regional population growth Impacts size, composition of workforce

US Old Age Dependency Ratios Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Employment to Population Ratio Employment rates for 25 to 54-year-olds remain statistically lower in Ohio and Kentucky Employment to Population Ratio Highest (North Dakota)85.6% Lowest (West Virginia)67.8% Ohio ranked 31st76.2% Kentucky ranked 46th71.8% Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts’ analysis of data from the Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.

Cincinnati Forecast Summary 2.7%2.0%1.7%7.0% 5.0% GDPTotal Emp. MFG Emp. New Dwelling Units Unemp. Rate