Forecasting Models Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing.

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Presentation transcript:

Forecasting Models Decomposition and Exponential Smoothing

Additive Model

Multiplicative Model

Simple Exponential Smoothing No Trend

Additive Trend Holt’s Method

Multiplicative Trend

Dampened Additive Trend

Dampened Multiplicative Trend

Additive Trend and Additive Seasonality

Additive Trend and Multiplicative Seasonality Holt-Winters Method

Multiplicative Trend and Additive Seasonality

Multiplicative Trend and Multiplicative Seasonality

Dampened Additive Trend with Additive Seasonality

Dampened Multiplicative Trend with Multiplicative Seasonality

ETS Models (Error, Trend, Seasonality)

Measure or Forecasting Equation ETS(A, A, A)

Measure or Forecasting Equation ETS(A, A, M)

Measure or Forecasting Equation ETS(A, A d, M)

Measure or Forecasting Equation ETS(A, M d, M)