Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2013. National Economy  Sequestration.

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Presentation transcript:

Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2013

National Economy  Sequestration

Arizona Economy

Local Economy Sierra Vista & Cochise County

Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Retail Sales Cochise CountySierra Vista 2013*6.4%4.5% %-1.0% %-5.5% %-1.1% %-1.4% %-6.6% %2.6% Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Restaurant and Bar Sales Cochise CountySierra Vista 2013*-6.7%-14.6% %-9.5% %2.8% %3.1% %2.1% %-2.0% %2.9% Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

Accommodation Sales Cochise CountySierra Vista 2013*-22.4%-40.2% %-28.2% %-10.1% %11.0% %-2.0% %19.4% %21.1% Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * January only; comparison to same period the previous year

Sales Outlook  Retail on rebound but sequestration & general defense cuts threaten to derail  Hospitality will continue to struggle, particularly accommodation  Construction of new hospital will help all industries (net effect = new hospital – defense cuts)

Unemployment * Jan-Feb only; seasonally adjusted

Unemployment (Monthly)

Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County) Compared to same month previous year

Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County) 12 months ended Feb 2013

Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County) 12 months ended Feb 2013

Employment Outlook  Net effect = new hospital – defense cuts

New Residential Construction SFR Permits

Home Sales MLS (site-built only)

Home Prices Median Price (site-built only)

New Commercial Construction

Outlook  New residential construction stalled due to competition from foreclosures  Existing home sales volume given boost from foreclosures/lower prices  New hospital

Conclusion  National economy hampered by fiscal woes/sequestration  State economy improving  Local Economy  Sequestration/defense budget cuts  New hospital  Net effect