What do you think best characterizes Dr. Curry’s opinion on what has caused the majority of planetary warming in the late 20th century? a) CO 2 b) solar variability c) a combination of solar and CO 2 forcing d) she seemed really uncertain, I couldn’t tell Do you think that Dr. Curry believes that CO 2 is warming the planet? a) yes b) no c) the uncertainties are too large to answer yes or no

First, an exchange between Judy and myself: and this goes on…

From Curry lecture on Tuesday

“Total Solar Irradiance” measured by satellites ~ 1365 W/m 2 But in terms of actual radiative forcing on Earth, need to account for: 1)Earth is a sphere (divide by ~4) 2)Earth reflects 30% of incoming solar radiation (b/c of ice, clouds, deserts, etc) So… for a maximum total TSI change of 5 W/m 2 since 1900, actual radiative forcing is 5 W/m 2 / 4 * 0.7 = W/m 2

Corrected numbers… % 1

And later, when confronted with her solar forcing error: Side note: slides were removed from her blog after error was pointed out

What do you make of this brouhaha? Is it important to you? To the world?

State and Regional GHG Initiatives What are the individual states doing to mitigate GHG emissions? What are the common elements? and regional differences? How does the first multi-state cap and trade program (RGGI) work? What implications do these non-federal programs have for pending federal legislation?

Categories of State GHG activities 1)Vehicle Emissions Standards 2)Renewable Portfolio Standards 3)Efficiency Standards/Programs 4)Cap and Trade programs Most content in the following section from Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (c2es.org)

Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards – It’s all about California 2002: CA passes law requiring 30% emissions reductions by : EPA stalls on granting CA waiver to step outside federal emissions standards in response to industry complaints 2007: CA files lawsuit against EPA for stalling 2009: EPA grants CA waiver to set standards *if* changes to 2016 timelines to be consistent with Obama CAFE standards

Plug-in electric vehicles

Biofuels

Renewable Portfolio Standards Ranges from: CA: 33% by 2020 TX: 5% by 2015 NY: 30% by 2015 CO: 30% by 2020 NC: 12.5% by 2021

through electricity bills and/or utility charges allows costumers to sell electricity back to grid Public benefit fundsNet metering programs Green Pricing GaPower optional: $5/100kwhr; green power w/ 50% solar; ~$50/month additional cost

Appliance Efficiency Standards

State Building Efficiency Requirements

2/27/ % below 2005 by 2020 cap and trade 11/15/2007 set emissions targets by 11/15/08 ~60-80% cuts by ???? (2040?) cap and trade; C inventory, reporting full implementation by mid Regional Climate Alliances Spring 2008

Nov 15, 2007, in devt Dec 20, 2005, eff. 1/1/09 Feb 26, 2007, eff. 1/1/12 (goal = -15% of 2005 levels by 2020) June 25, 2008, not eff. yet Regional Climate Alliances Spring 2010

Transportation Climate Initiative (2010 declaration from 11 states) Regional Climate Alliances Spring 2012

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) -set regional limits on GHG emissions from electric power plants & transportation -based on “Model Rule”, but each state can design their own strategy for implementation (state targets set for 2009 emissions) -comes into force in power plant emissions remain constant through 2014, fall by 10% by “cap & trade” mechanism: each state will set GHG limits and then issue permits equal to the tons of CO2 allowed by the cap

Basic elements of Model Rule: 1)applicability: applies to fossil fuel-fired electric generating units >25MW (covers 25% of regional GHG emissions) 2) size & structure of cap: a) states must stabilize power sector CO2 emissions at 2009 emissions during implementation ( ) b) then reduce emissions by 2.5%/yr for (total reductions of 10% below 2009 levels by 2018) 3) permitting: each CO2 source must have approved CO2 budget emission monitoring plan (EMP); developed by state energy regulators 4) allowance allocation: most CO2 allowances auctioned off (vs. ETS) 25% allowances to support consumer benefit programs 5) temporal flexibility mechanisms: facilities can “bank” or “rollover” CO2 allowances early reduction allowances granted for early demonstrated reductions extended compliance period 6) price triggers: stage 1: if CO2 allowance cost >$7, CO2 offsets can increase stage 2: if CO2 allowance cost >$10, CO2 offsets increase more, compliance period extended, international CO2 credits allowed

Basic elements of Model Rule: (cont) 7) emissions monitoring: CO2 unit must install and certify monitoring system, report quality-controlled data (borrows from EPA acid rain program) 8) offsets: awards CO2 offset allowances to projects outside capped sector that sequester/reduce CO2 emissions (limited to 3.3% of unit’s total compliance obligation - must prove “additionality” Who stands to gain here? Who stands to lose? Or is it that simple? What would you do as a power company in a RGGI state? What is leakage? and how does it impact RGGI?

LEAKAGE There could be a shift of electricity generation from capped sources subject to RGGI to higher-emitting sources not subject to RGGI. -impossible to predict ahead of time (market and political forces unknown) -RGGI proposes to: 1) track load vs. generation 2) monitor C-intensive nature of non-RGGI power policy options: 1) reduce electricity demand (efficiency), so indirectly reduce leakage 2) limit the amount of CO2 (<xx lbs CO2/MWh) that could be “emitted” through long-term purchasing agreements between RGGI utilities and regional power plants 3) emissions portfolio standard

How did the states dole out allowances? - different than ETS, most allowances auctioned off

How much money did they make? Across three past CO 2 allowance auctions, cost ~$3/ton

Where did all this money go? How much did it cost the average customer? Distributing the CO 2 allowance costs around the ratepayers in those States, RGGI costs added $0.73/month to the average electric utility bill.

Has RGGI reduced emissions? [does it matter?]