Regional Decision-making Tools South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership October 15 & 16, 2003 REGIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS, INC.

Thank You!

Objectives Resources: models, support, consulting Range: what-if, database, integration Explore: –Economic development analysis –Transportation analysis –Land use analysis –Fiscal, funding, & taxation analysis

Competition & Advantage Competition is any area in the world with quality goods and services to sell, and access to markets and transportation. Advantage goes to relatively productive total resources, not to merely cheap labor. Competition and advantage are regional.

Regional Analysis Activities Economic modeling Economic database resource Project evaluation Policy evaluation Economic development effects Transportation, land use, & fiscal analysis

Integrated Economic Analysis Baseline & simulation forecasting process Model structure allows NAICS forecasting and enables enhanced decision-making tools Integrated REMI model optimizes each tool: –Input-Output –Equilibrium –Econometric panel data –Economic geography (gravity & agglomeration)

How Does REMI Do It? Alternative Simulation Forecast Control Forecast

REMI Model Structure ( ) WITH ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY LINKAGES Output Market Shares Labor & Capital Demand Population & Labor Supply Wages, Costs & Prices

A Look at the REMI Model: FLORIDA PARTNERSHIP Relative production cost: inputs, labor, capital, fuel Employment: durables, nondurables, nonmanufacturing; services; demand sources; occupations Gross regional product: demand sources; sectors Trade shares & trade flows Demographics & economic migrants Regional interests (history & forecast)? Regional issues (simple simulation)?

Development & Planning Applications Economic development proposal evaluation Regional development & cluster potential Work force development planning Project eligibility & grant funding Grant compliance & effects reporting Transportation analysis & land use planning

Policy Analysis & Forecasting Applications Regional long-term forecasting Calibrated with local data at desired detail Discussion: current regional approaches-- –Regional economic development evaluations –Regional cluster potential evaluations –Regional work force development program –Regional taxation & spending evaluations –Fiscal & funding effectiveness evaluations

“Quo Vadis?” Let’s look at economic geography examples Clusters, competition, & Florida maps Small-area land use & Houston-Galveston Integrated transportation analysis