Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Information.

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Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Information Overload Steven Rimmer Towers Watson

Information overload: Setting mortality assumptions in the modern era Steven Rimmer, Towers Watson

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 What we promised to talk about 3

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 What we are going to conclude 4 New data can help Markets change risk Context matters

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A brief history of base assumptions 5 Single assumption Own experience Industry standard tables Adjusted for industry / amount

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A brief history of base assumptions 6 Postcode rating Everyone is ‘different’? Postcode vs individual Data quality

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – Knightian uncertainty towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. “The essential fact is that 'risk' means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character; and there are far-reaching and crucial differences in the bearings of the phenomena depending on which of the two is really present and operating” Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921) Frank Knight (1885 – 1972)

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – Ellsberg paradox towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Set-up 90 sweets in a jar 30 are red 60 are either yellow or black Wager 1 £100 if you draw a red; or £100 if you draw a black Wager 2 £100 if you draw a red or yellow; or £100 if you draw a black or yellow

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A brief history of base assumptions 9 Postcode rating Everyone is ‘different’? Postcode vs individual Data quality

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A brief history of base assumptions 10 £10,000 pension Smoker Heart attack No financial dependants Individual underwriting Current hot topic Role for Trustees? Insurability?

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. “This paper relates quality and uncertainty. The existence of goods of many grades poses interesting and important problems for the theory of markets… … good cars may be driven out of the market by the lemons.” The Market for “Lemons”: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism (1970) George Akerlof (1940 – )

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Sellers Buyers

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Sellers Buyers

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Sellers Buyers

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The (annuity) market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Pension schemes Insurers

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The (annuity) market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Pension schemes Non- underwritten Medical underwriting

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Quick aside – The (annuity) market for lemons towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Pension schemes Non- underwritten Medical underwriting

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 A brief history of base assumptions 18 £10,000 pension Smoker Heart attack No financial dependants Individual underwriting Current hot topic Role for Trustees? Insurability?

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 What next? 19 £10,000 pension Smoker Heart attack No financial dependants Genetic profiling Next step? Explains a lot of variation at oldest ages Would we want to gather the information?

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. especially about the future.” ZZZ “It's hard to make predictions, towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. “Trend risk”

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Deaths by quarter © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. towerswatson.com 22

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. CMI Working Paper 69 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Male life expectancies towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Female life expectancies towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Deaths in England & Wales 2001 to 2012 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Total Change from previous year

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten most prevalent causes of death in E&W 2001 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten most prevalent causes of death in E&W 2001 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Nine of Top 30 are diseases of the circulatory system towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Twelve of Top 30 are malignant neoplasms towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Other nine of Top 30 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten most prevalent causes of death in E&W 2001 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten most prevalent causes of death in E&W 2001 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten biggest increases over last 12 years towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Ten biggest fallers over last 12 years towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Biggest risers and fallers 2011 to 2012 towerswatson.com © 2012 Towers Watson. All rights reserved.

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. Differentiating rates of improvement Source: Article in The Actuary by Piero Cocevar and Luigi De FalcoThe Actuary Low pension High pension Evidence from Italy © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. towerswatson.com 37

Proprietary and Confidential. For Towers Watson and Towers Watson client use only. © 2013 Towers Watson. All rights reserved. 38