SAVI RESEARCH PROPOSAL: STARTING POINTS V as a x-cutting theme Current GEC research lacks integration Current coping strategies not linked to GEC GEC not linked to other stressors -> multiple stressors SA V SA = f{convergence of & interaction amongst several stressors}

SAVI Purpose Develop long-term applied research program & network for southern Africa to address who is vulnerable, to what, why, and what can be done.

SAVI Objectives 1. Consolidate different facets of vulnerability research and develop an integrated framework for understanding vulnerability within the context of southern Africa 2. Develop a proposal for a self-sustaining, longer-term project which integrates vulnerability research with policy formulation. 3. Build a coalition amongst ICSU and other scientists in the region to implement a vulnerability research program.

SAVI WS I: POINTS RE-INFORCED, & LESSONS LEARNED Multi stressors -> complexity -> stressor interactions -> cumulative effects V – security continuum -> policy perspective

SAVI WS I: POINTS RE-INFORCED, & LESSONS LEARNED cont’d Need to contextualize V & not de-politicize Stressors (& responses) occur at many temp & spatial scales (levels) -> linkages key V is dynamic -> inherently about social transformation as well as GEC De-defining of pop groups -> marginalized, the impoverished

SAVI WS I: POINTS RE-INFORCED, & LESSONS LEARNED cont’d Complex concept but need for transparent process &understandable explanations Move towards comprehensive V/security concepts

SAVI Take 1: A Vision-based System Response Framework STARTING ASSUMPTIONS Transformation (societal & env) is an on-going processTransformation (societal & env) is an on-going process V is inherently about unequal distribution of power & assetsV is inherently about unequal distribution of power & assets SAVI wants to make a difference (science-practioner partnership)SAVI wants to make a difference (science-practioner partnership) SAVI is inherently about assessment & not predictionSAVI is inherently about assessment & not prediction

SAVI Take 1: A Vision-based System Response Framework cont’d ASSESSMENT STEPS ANALYTICAL PROCESSES Federation of methods Historical, case studies, dynamic social network models ASSESSMENT OUTCOMES Practioners supported, vulnerability response options rated, etc…

SAVI Take 1: A Vision-based System Response Framework cont’d ASSESSMENT STEPS VISIONS OR META Qs (i) “a secure SA by 2050” through to (n) “return to the dark continent” CONTEXTUALIZING THE VISION (i) Regional investment & re-investment, fair distribution of goods & bads, etc (ii) SA slides and & destabilizes the region, ODA & private sector declines, HIV/AIDS unchecked

Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS & Impact 27Aug01 -Report I:Epidem’gy & Lit. p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIV prevalence B 1 A B AIDS - cumulative Impact

THE CLIMATIC CHANGE FRAMEWORK T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 ATMOS CO2 B 1 A B ALTERED CLIMATE Impact

A SAVI FRAMEWORK? T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 MULTI STRESSORS B 1 A B ERODED SAFETY NETS *** Vul or Security TRANSFORMATION PROCSESS (GEC & SOCIETAL *** SOCIETAL & ENVIRONMENTAL